Really?  You think that doing 20-50 uniform random playouts and
estimating the win probability, when used as a leaf node evaluator in
tree search, will outperform anything else that uses same amount of
time?  I must not understand you.  What do you mean by static
evaluator?  When I use the term, I mean something quite general,
basically any function of the board state that doesn't do explicit
lookahead.

I guess 20-50 optimized playouts take so little time they would just
be so much faster than the sort of evaluators I might make that could
use hundreds of thousands of floating point multiplies.  But more
towards that costly end of the regime, I think doing thousands of
random playouts would be really bad (but then maybe you could just
expand more nodes in the tree and do fewer playouts instead).  I am
looking for higher quality, more costly evaluators than 50 MC
playouts.  But that is a good point that I should compare to those
evaluators since if my evaluator is going to take more time it had
better show some other advantage.

- George

On Tue, Feb 17, 2009 at 6:13 PM, Darren Cook <dar...@dcook.org> wrote:
>> I think it would be much more informative to compare evaluator A and
>> evaluator B in the following way.
>> Make a bot that searched to a fixed depth d before then calling a
>> static evaluator (maybe this depth is 1 or 2 or something small).  Try
>> and determine the strength of a bot using A and a bot using B as
>> accurately as possible against a variety of opponents.  The better
>> evaluator is defined to be the one that results in the stronger bot.
>
> If you do this I'd suggest also including monte-carlo as one of your
> static evaluators. You want a score, but monte carlo usually returns
> information like "17 black wins, 3 white wins". However you can instead
> just sum ownership in the terminal positions, so if A1 is owned by black
> 15 times, white 5 times, count that as a point for black. If exactly
> equal ownership count the point for neither side. (Alternatively just
> sum black and white score of each terminal position.)
>
> You could have two or three versions using different number of playouts
> (with the result trade-off of more playouts means fewer nodes visited in
> the global search); I suspect 20-50 playouts will be optimum.
>
> My hunch is that monte carlo version will always out perform any static
> evaluation, given the same overall time (*). But it would be interesting
> to know.
>
> Darren
>
> *: Or run the experiment giving the static evaluation four times the
> clock time, on the assumption there is more potential for optimization
> in complex code.
>
> --
> Darren Cook, Software Researcher/Developer
> http://dcook.org/mlsn/ (English-Japanese-German-Chinese-Arabic
>                        open source dictionary/semantic network)
> http://dcook.org/work/ (About me and my work)
> http://dcook.org/blogs.html (My blogs and articles)
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