[computer-go] two won semiais = lost game?

[Stefan Kaitschick]

I have a general question: how good are the current information gathering 
mechanisms in the mc tree to insure that advantagous semiais are actually 
won? Random playouts will surely give the side with more libs the advantage, 
but to what degree? Lets say the leading side wins the semiai in 2/3 of all 
playouts. This seems comfortable. But except for turnarounds through ko, the 
leading side should allways win the semiai. What if one side has 2 winning 
semiais on the board, with winning both needed to win the game? If both have 
a 2/3 chance of winning in playouts they combine to 4/9 - a losing 
evaluation for a won game.

Stefan 

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