The playouts often give the side with fewer liberties the advantage in a
semeai.  This causes a large fraction of Many Faces' lost games to strong
players on KGS.

One problem is approach moves.  Say W has a group with 3 liberties, but they
must be played in order (perhaps one is an eye, and one needs an approach
move).  B has a group with 5 liberties, but they are all equivalent and can
be filled in any order.  W has only one random move that wins the semeai.  B
has 5 random moves that improve its chance to win the semeai.  Most playouts
will end with B winning this semeai even though W is one move ahead.

The other problem is local patterns.  Often a 3x3 pattern will cause one
side to fill its own liberty.

David

> -----Original Message-----
> From: computer-go-boun...@computer-go.org [mailto:computer-go-
> boun...@computer-go.org] On Behalf Of Stefan Kaitschick
> Sent: Monday, September 07, 2009 2:36 AM
> To: computer-go
> Subject: [computer-go] two won semiais = lost game?
> 
> I have a general question: how good are the current information gathering
> mechanisms in the mc tree to insure that advantagous semiais are actually
> won? Random playouts will surely give the side with more libs the
> advantage,
> but to what degree? Lets say the leading side wins the semiai in 2/3 of
> all
> playouts. This seems comfortable. But except for turnarounds through ko,
> the
> leading side should allways win the semiai. What if one side has 2 winning
> semiais on the board, with winning both needed to win the game? If both
> have
> a 2/3 chance of winning in playouts they combine to 4/9 - a losing
> evaluation for a won game.
> 
> Stefan
> 
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