http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3207311.ece
On Fri, Feb 13, 2009 at 10:35 AM, Elaine Zablocki <[email protected]>wrote: > At 09:01 PM 2/12/2009, Ray Rheault wrote: > >> -------------- Original message from Matthew Taylor < >> [email protected]>: >> > On Feb 11, 2009, at 2:33 PM, db wrote: >> > >> > > and they have been increasingly motivated in the last 25 years or so >> > > to come strongly and selfishly forward by a trend of increasing >> > > American scarcity and diminishing prospects. >> > >> > What scarcity? What is America running out of in your view? In what >> > way are our prospects diminished? Most libertarians believe that if >> > there is a scarcity, it represents a market opportunity, and believe >> > that with the right choices made our prospects look good indeed. >> > > We are running out of oil, and our entire economy is based on oil. > > U.S. oil production hit its peak in 1970. World oil production is at its > peak about now. > > This doesn't mean there is no more oil... there is still lots left.... but > it means we probably face declining amounts of available oil, plus increased > competition from other countries for what is available. > > While various substitutes for oil have been suggested, my understanding is > that none of them have the same amount of available energy as oil does. > People talk about oil shale, or substitutes based on coal... but it TAKES a > lot of energy to start with those substitutes and transform them into > something that can perform the same functions as oil. They may be helpful, > but they aren't enough to replace the amount of oil that we depend on. > > Most libertarians believe that if >> > there is a scarcity, it represents a market opportunity >> > > If there were huge amounts of oil still buried in the ground, then we could > go look for them.... then the scarcity would become a new opportunity. > However, people have been doing a lot of looking and they haven't come up > with new oil fields equivalent to the ones we've been pumping for the last > 100 years or more. So... they MIGHT find a lot more.... but also they may > not, and we need to start getting our minds used to this unpalatable fact. > > I've been reading about this over the past couple of months, and I find > it's very difficult to take in this information... because it means our > lives are going to change a lot over the next decades. This is depressing > information. I keep wanting to put down the book and go read something more > pleasant. However, as I keep reading, the facts do seem to be that we're > going to face oil shortages, and our lives will have to change. If this is > the truth, better to face up to it now. > > It may seem odd to say this today, when oil is at such a low price per > barrel... but that doesn't affect our long-term prospects. > > Here's one book on the subject: > The Party's Over: Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies by > Richard Heinberg > > I've also been reading Bad Money by Kevin Phillips. The two books together > help me understand what has been happening over the past few months, and > what to expect (and prepare for) in future years... but as I said, this > isn't pleasant reading. Necessary, though. > > > ************************************************************************* > > ** List info, subscription management, list rules, archives, privacy ** > ** policy, calmness, a member map, and more at http://www.cguys.org/ ** > ************************************************************************* > -- Make sure you support your local CarbonONset programs! ************************************************************************* ** List info, subscription management, list rules, archives, privacy ** ** policy, calmness, a member map, and more at http://www.cguys.org/ ** *************************************************************************
