On Thu, Jan 30, 2003 at 11:24:13AM -0800, James A. Donald wrote: > -- > On 30 Jan 2003 at 12:16, Harmon Seaver wrote: > > I'll have to find the studies, but it was the same oil > > geologists (not enviros) who used the same model to > > accurately predict the peak of US oil production who did the > > one on world oil production. > > Not true. > > Rather, what happened is that there have been thousands of > overly pessimistic estimates, and one overly optimistic > estimate for US oil production (an over reaction to past low > side errors) , and everyone who makes implausibly pessimistic > estimates for world oil production likes to associate > themselves with those who disagreed with the one overly > optimistic estimate -- but the association is thin.
These geologists very accurately predicted the peaking of oil production in the US, and oil production has peaked in over 50 countries already. http://www.hubbertpeak.com/ http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere/uppsalaJHL.pdf Hubbert was a Shell geologist, working for Shell. Shell has put out a number of reports acknowledging the upcoming peak and decline in world oil production, as, I believe, has British Petroleum. Check Shell's website, they are doing a lot of research into alternative energy and making a lot of investments in that area, including synfuels and biofuels. http://www.planetark.org/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/15883/story.htm -- Harmon Seaver CyberShamanix http://www.cybershamanix.com
