snip"

Gus Gassmann" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote in message
[EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]...
>But I was not the first to so challenge. Nunnally called
> > normally sampled causes "dead data." Only the effects should be sampled
as
> > normal or triangular.
>
> My ignorance shows, since I have no clue as to who Nunnally was.
> At any rate, I think he is quite wrong. My problem with his position
> is that it _presupposes_  that I know what are the causes and the
> effects. If I then want to use CR to classify my variables, that is
> circular logic.


Nunnally wrote some good books on statistics and psychometrics.

You will not know the causes and effects but you can hypothesize them. Let's
say you think variable A causes variable B. But A is normally distributed.
Then predict A from B and use the residual as an estimation of latent causes
L.  Put A, L and B in a spread sheet. Sort by A, the hypothesized cause.
Trim off all A values and corresponding values in L and B that are above
zA+1.7. Then trim off the values below zA -1.7.  Then sort by L. Trim off
the values of A, L and B corresponding to zL above zL=1.7 and below zL=-1.7.
Now your causes have been trimmed so that they are close enough to uniform
to allow similar extremes of A and L to occur together. Conduct CR on this
trimmed data. If rde is negative then B is a cause of A.

If you wish to check for reverse causation or to make sure A doesnot also
cause B, then predict B from A, obtain the new residual LL and trim by B and
LL.

If you get a chance, read Nunnally's classic text Psychometrics.

Bill

>
> Here are two data sets for you:
>
> Sample 1                                Sample 2
>    x1         x2         x3                x1         x2         x3
> -0.1080     0.3953     0.5033        -0.4397     0.2960    -0.1437
> -0.0397    -0.4221    -0.3824         0.1654    -0.0392     0.1262
>  0.1731    -0.3578    -0.5309        -0.1806    -0.3556    -0.5362
> -0.1922    -0.3609    -0.1687         0.3486    -0.2583     0.0903
> -0.4954     0.0686     0.5640        -0.3397    -0.2943    -0.6340
>  0.1204     0.2726     0.1522         0.2225     0.2985     0.5210
>  0.2326    -0.1835    -0.4161         0.4383     0.1177     0.5560
>  0.0382    -0.1677    -0.2059         0.4894    -0.1643     0.3251
>  0.1101    -0.2875    -0.3976         0.2245     0.3840     0.6085
>  0.2314    -0.0712    -0.3026        -0.1449    -0.1220    -0.2669
>  0.1834    -0.0154    -0.1988         0.3106    -0.3532    -0.0426
> -0.3144    -0.3424    -0.0280        -0.0671    -0.2752    -0.3423
> -0.1609    -0.1717    -0.0108        -0.0526     0.1395     0.0869
> -0.3071    -0.0672     0.2399        -0.0737    -0.4318    -0.5055
>  0.3023     0.3298     0.0275        -0.4424    -0.1317    -0.5741
> -0.3086    -0.1721     0.1365        -0.2790    -0.3178    -0.5968
> -0.0301     0.4549     0.4850         0.1514     0.2256     0.3770
> -0.4170     0.4049     0.8219         0.3591    -0.1085     0.2506
>  0.3822     0.4298     0.0476         0.0932    -0.3287    -0.2355
>  0.4678    -0.3920    -0.8598        -0.2843     0.3962     0.1119
> -0.3454     0.4602     0.8056        -0.1186     0.0616    -0.0570
> -0.1997    -0.4107    -0.2110         0.3543     0.4832     0.8375
> -0.0753    -0.2161    -0.1408        -0.0579    -0.3364    -0.3943
>  0.4514     0.3021    -0.1493         0.0820     0.4140     0.4960
> -0.4914     0.1282     0.6196         0.0238     0.2010     0.2248
> -0.3188    -0.2597     0.0591        -0.4660    -0.0083    -0.4743
>  0.0954    -0.4192    -0.5146         0.3160     0.1450     0.4610
>  0.3109    -0.1859    -0.4968         0.2707    -0.3065    -0.0358
>  0.1177     0.0425    -0.0752        -0.1334    -0.4000    -0.5334
>  0.0988     0.0866    -0.0122         0.3131     0.0778     0.3909
>  0.2042    -0.3173    -0.5215         0.1473    -0.3525    -0.2052
>  0.4936     0.0075    -0.4861         0.1552     0.3760     0.5312
>  0.3995     0.1239    -0.2756        -0.4542     0.3861    -0.0681
> -0.2928     0.1044     0.3972        -0.1404     0.3967     0.2563
> -0.2079    -0.4417    -0.2338         0.0219    -0.1143    -0.0924
> -0.2872     0.2315     0.5187        -0.2758     0.0582    -0.2176
>  0.0952     0.2241     0.1289         0.1723     0.1686     0.3409
>  0.0612     0.4615     0.4003         0.0937    -0.4729    -0.3792
>  0.0994    -0.3605    -0.4599        -0.0574     0.0202    -0.0372
> -0.2700    -0.0366     0.2334         0.0330     0.1393     0.1723
>  0.2352    -0.2092    -0.4444        -0.1287     0.4526     0.3239
> -0.3092     0.3306     0.6398         0.4807    -0.4881    -0.0074
> -0.3007     0.2191     0.5198         0.1418     0.0555     0.1973
> -0.0645    -0.1181    -0.0536        -0.1412     0.2659     0.1247
>  0.1709    -0.1709    -0.3418         0.0594    -0.2961    -0.2367
>  0.4761     0.4055    -0.0706        -0.4084    -0.3958    -0.8042
> -0.4904     0.2683     0.7587        -0.3724     0.4771     0.1047
> -0.2681     0.0731     0.3412        -0.0559    -0.0793    -0.1352
> -0.0226     0.2264     0.2490        -0.0836     0.2387     0.1551
>  0.1847     0.1867     0.0020         0.2396     0.0202     0.2598
>  0.2076     0.2120     0.0044        -0.3015     0.0792    -0.2223
>  0.2451     0.4303     0.1852        -0.3462     0.3331    -0.0131
> -0.0490    -0.0084     0.0406        -0.1550    -0.0568    -0.2118
> -0.0365    -0.3069    -0.2704        -0.3262    -0.3329    -0.6591
>  0.2611     0.3574     0.0963         0.4767     0.2800     0.7567
> -0.0611     0.1078     0.1689        -0.1874    -0.2461    -0.4335
> -0.1591    -0.0597     0.0994         0.0916     0.0904     0.1820
>  0.3689    -0.2308    -0.5997        -0.4325     0.0419    -0.3906
>  0.2228    -0.4240    -0.6468        -0.4178    -0.4326    -0.8504
>  0.4775    -0.2383    -0.7158         0.4032    -0.2920     0.1112
>  0.3783    -0.0090    -0.3873         0.3121     0.2828     0.5949
> -0.0566     0.0260     0.0826         0.3388     0.3410     0.6798
>  0.4026     0.1592    -0.2434         0.0499     0.3937     0.4436
> -0.1845     0.1619     0.3464        -0.2070    -0.2163    -0.4233
> -0.2490    -0.1894     0.0596         0.1267     0.4613     0.5880
>  0.3668    -0.3443    -0.7111        -0.0371     0.4682     0.4311
> -0.4651    -0.0808     0.3843        -0.0616     0.3536     0.2920
>  0.3750     0.0377    -0.3373         0.2678    -0.0612     0.2066
> -0.1645    -0.2539    -0.0894         0.0980    -0.0522     0.0458
>  0.4041    -0.1345    -0.5386        -0.2904    -0.0675    -0.3579
>  0.0645    -0.2520    -0.3165         0.1373    -0.1961    -0.0588
>  0.0621     0.3327     0.2706        -0.1248     0.1215    -0.0033
> -0.1591     0.4404     0.5995        -0.3287    -0.4614    -0.7901
>  0.1182    -0.4835    -0.6017        -0.3457     0.2191    -0.1266
> -0.2415    -0.2480    -0.0065         0.2812     0.4961     0.7773
> -0.3003    -0.4429    -0.1426         0.1968    -0.2689    -0.0721
>  0.1662     0.3290     0.1628        -0.4027     0.4364     0.0337
> -0.2538     0.4813     0.7351         0.4085     0.3003     0.7088
>  0.2485     0.1853    -0.0632        -0.3424    -0.1506    -0.4930
> -0.2859    -0.3326    -0.0467        -0.2163     0.4987     0.2824
> -0.1710     0.0792     0.2502        -0.2549     0.2514    -0.0035
>  0.0548    -0.0992    -0.1540        -0.0244    -0.1422    -0.1666
>  0.0410     0.1996     0.1586         0.4855     0.4630     0.9485
>  0.3219     0.2388    -0.0831         0.3642    -0.0608     0.3034
>  0.4776     0.2809    -0.1967        -0.3695    -0.0575    -0.4270
> -0.0407     0.3851     0.4258         0.2506    -0.2512    -0.0006
> -0.3385     0.0563     0.3948        -0.2974    -0.4193    -0.7167
>  0.3362    -0.4555    -0.7917        -0.4036    -0.2230    -0.6266
> -0.4863    -0.3058     0.1805         0.2822    -0.1218     0.1604
> -0.3244     0.1590     0.4834        -0.2181     0.1220    -0.0961
> -0.2982     0.3868     0.6850        -0.4685     0.1107    -0.3578
> -0.4723    -0.1808     0.2915         0.4669     0.0894     0.5563
> -0.4189    -0.2992     0.1197        -0.3594     0.1894    -0.1700
>  0.1484     0.4720     0.3236         0.4702    -0.3301     0.1401
>  0.4847    -0.4153    -0.9000         0.4001    -0.0267     0.3734
> -0.4401     0.3119     0.7520         0.2147    -0.4939    -0.2792
>  0.2471     0.0177    -0.2294         0.3135    -0.4004    -0.0869
> -0.1915     0.2655     0.4570         0.2022     0.1466     0.3488
> -0.4083    -0.4815    -0.0732         0.1384    -0.4058    -0.2674
>  0.4440    -0.0507    -0.4947        -0.2001    -0.1060    -0.3061
>
> In both samples the columns marked x1 and x2 are uniformly distributed
> on [-0.5, +0.5]. (Reasonably closely, anyway: the data are set up so that
> there will be one (x1,x2) in [-0.5,-0.4]x[-0.5,-0.4], one in
> [-0.5,-0.4]x[-0.4,-0.3],
> one in [-0.5,-0.4]x[-0.3,-0.2], and so on, for the obvious partition of
> [-0.5,+0.5]x[-0.5,+0.5] into 100 smaller squares of side 0.1. So they do
> fill the square, as you requested.)
>
> Both, in fact are subsets of larger samples, and I can
> send you the full files if interested --- there is not enough room here.
> In both samples the three columns are connected via x3 = x1 + x2.
> However, in one of the two samples x3 is in fact computed in this way,
> caused by the other two, the way I use the word, whereas in the other
> sample x1 and x3 are originally generated (uniformly) and then x2
> is calculated as x2 = x3 - x1, in other words, x2 is the _effect_.
> Can you tell them apart?
>
> > Sampling is a type of perception and like all perception, the instrument
is
> > a construction. The eyes do not allow us to see many wave lengths. We
are
> > subject to certain illusions. The eyes are not perfect. No sampling
strategy
> > is perfect either. Only God in his omniscience has perfect perception.
We
> > ain't him. Neither is the normal distribution.
>
> > When we collect an approximately equal number AND a sufficient number of
> > observations so that we can see the combinations of all the possible
values
> > of the causes, then we get a less distorted view of how those causes can
> > combine. The manifold is a map or prototype of such structure.  A cause
can
> > be expressed in data but unless we can see it, we can not make much
sense of
> > it. This is why scientists search long and hard to fill out the ranges
of
> > their observations in experimental science. Normal distributions do not
> > reflect the combinations of the similar extremes of causes.  You do not
see
> > normally distributed cell sizes across the factors of an ANOVA. We need
> > something else to see what happens in the extremes of the
> > cross-tabulation/conjunction of causes.  This something else is a
manifold,
> > which is approximated by uniform samples of the causes.
> >
> > Bill
>



.
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