Thanks everyone for your input.

>From here and elsewhere I am starting to get a picture that looks like this:

1. Buy a 10D
2. Buy a lens
3. I will want the 1D2, wait a few months (since waiting lists are absurdly
long), and plan on picking it up later in the year and making the 10D a
backup body.

I think I may just go this route.  Now comes the hard part: a lens.  That
new 70-300mm DO IS is really tempting... but so is a 300mm f4 IS... but
wait, 300mm is no longer what it once was... 200mm f2.8.  Ah hell.  And I
had thought I only had one hurdle.  The cropping factor throws a wrench into
it all.

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