Bruce EVangel Parmenter wrote:
Does it seem like something is about to happen (like waiting for the
other shoe to drop)?
History doesn't exactly repeat itself, but it echoes.
For close to 100 years now, there has been a boom/bust cycle in EVs
about every 10 years. So to guess what the auto industry will do with
EVs this time, we only have to look back at what happened in the
previous cycles. It won't repeat exactly; but it will be close.
1. Wild-eyed enthusiasm
At first, you have announcements of "miracle breakthroughs", show cars,
and wildly optimistic forecasts. Pundits proclaim a new age, and predict
a rosy future for EVs.
2. Practical difficulties
But it takes far longer for the promised EVs to reach production.
When/if they do come out, they are much less ambitious than the
prototypes. Production is very low; there are waiting lists at first but
sales soon peak at some low number. Pundits start to mock the whole idea
of EVs.
3. Pullback
Then the manufacturers lose interest. They fail to promote the EVs, and
start promoting some new "dream" technology instead. The early adopters
get "left behind" as their cars are orphaned (or even recalled and
crushed). The pundits start saying, "We told you it would never work!"
4. Blackout
Then comes a "dark period" when EVs are ridiculed and denounced as
impractical. The only people building and driving EVs are hobbyists, or
those that managed to hang on to a production vehicle produced earlier.
Then it starts all over again...
I expect the current cycle to be much like the last one (1997-2000),
except for the presence of Tesla. They are a wild card, showing that the
"king has no pants". The big auto companies will have a hard time
claiming that EVs don't work and won't sell with Tesla out there,
proving otherwise. Solectria served much the same role in the last cycle
(with their Sunrise), but they weren't nearly as well funded and didn't
survive.
As long as Tesla survives, the present EV movement will stay alive. But
if they stumble, the pundits will jump on them like vultures on a
roadkill. I think the auto companies would then take the opportunity to
get out of EVs as fast as possible.
--
Never doubt that the work of a small group of thoughtful, committed
citizens can change the world. Indeed, it's the only thing that ever
has! -- Margaret Mead
--
Lee A. Hart, http://www.sunrise-ev.com/LeesEVs.htm
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