When several manufacturers were interested in and then discarded plans for a Hybrid car, it was Toyota with the Prius (and a small segment of Honda) that carried the Hybrid market, while the others waited - waited for them to fail. As soon as Toyota reached break-even on the Prius (after 3 years of international sales) the others were quick to still mock Toyota, but behind closed doors started to dust off the Hybrid plans and seek how to get in on that game as well. It took at least 5 years before the Hybrid was slowly recognised as something that was going to stay and actually take over the industry, due to the offered benefits. So, I expect that Tesla will be pretty successful and rather have the market to themselves, shared with Leaf, iMiev and some compliance cars, for another 3 years or so before EVs have finally established their permanent presence. Volt is just another Hybrid with good performance in EV-only mode, but otherwise just disguised as EV to hide that GM missed the Hybrid boat. Of course it has its place, just like the Roadster has its place. But I do not see that GM are committed to EV yet. Time can change that, we'll see.
Cor van de Water Chief Scientist Proxim Wireless Corporation http://www.proxim.com Email: [email protected] Private: http://www.cvandewater.com Skype: cor_van_de_water XoIP: +31877841130 Tel: +1 408 383 7626 Tel: +91 (040)23117400 x203 -----Original Message----- From: [email protected] on behalf of John O'COnnor Sent: Sat 7/20/2013 10:28 AM To: Electric Vehicle Discussion List Subject: Re: [EVDL] "And now for something completely different" ... This brings back the semantics issue of calling the Volt an EV. "The People" will never figure out what an EV is unless the industry and media stop calling the Volt and other hybrid drive and hybrid (onboard) fuel systems vehicles EVs! Further, I would argue that the only sales numbers that matter at this point are Tesla and Nissan Leaf. I could be wrong but those are the only production OEM's that have a major stake in EVs. And even Nissan is not fully in the game. You still can't buy a Leaf from many Nissan dealers and may not be able to for years if ever. If Tesla can maintain minimal success (profitability and 20k cars per year) for the next 5 years I think the boom-bust cycle will have been broken and only then will the rest of the majors join Nissan with a real EV effort. John On Jul 20, 2013, at 12:31 PM, Lee Hart <[email protected]> wrote: > I expect the current cycle to be much like the last one (1997-2000), except > for the presence of Tesla. They are a wild card, showing that the "king has > no pants". The big auto companies will have a hard time claiming that EVs > don't work and won't sell with Tesla out there, proving otherwise. Solectria > served much the same role in the last cycle (with their Sunrise), but they > weren't nearly as well funded and didn't survive. > > As long as Tesla survives, the present EV movement will stay alive. But if > they stumble, the pundits will jump on them like vultures on a roadkill. I > think the auto companies would then take the opportunity to get out of EVs as > fast as possible. _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA) _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
