> On Jun 9, 2015, at 2:51 PM, Ben Goren via EV <[email protected]> wrote: > > On Jun 9, 2015, at 6:02 AM, brucedp5 via EV <[email protected]> wrote: > >> How Uber's Autonomous Cars Will Reshape The Economy By 2025 >> By SeekingAlpha, May 31, 2015 By Zack Kanter
For anybody skeptical about this, I have two questions. How many people had smart phones in 2005? How many people do you know today who don’t have a smart phone? > > Couple more thoughts on this.... > > First, I think there's still a logistical challenge to be faced with > replacing the commuter car fleet with autonomous Johnny Cab taxies -- namely, > that there's a reason why rush hour is a clusterfuck of single-occupancy > vehicles. To a first approximation, we'll still need roughly the same number > of self-driving public / private cars as we do today, because we'll still > have roughly the same number of people going to work at roughly the same > time. And those people will be as interested in sharing a ride with other > people in the future as they are today. That is, it seems to me like the > estimates in the article are naïvely assuming a fleet sized for the average > demand will suffice, whereas the fleet still needs to be sized for peak > demand. Electric grid operators could offer some insights to these analysts. Around here (Silicon Valley), the commute congestion period lasts about four hours in the evening from 3pm to 7pm. It seems to be a little more spread out in the morning. A vehicle that takes someone home from work between 3pm and 4pm could take somebody else home from work from 5pm to 6pm and pick up somebody else at 7pm and take them home. This indicates that peak size could be on the order of 1/3 of todays commuter fleet. Would a driverless car be allowed to use the HOV lane? Ed _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org For EV drag racing discussion, please use NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
