Yes, there will still be a demand for vehicles, but surely less than
today. While it's one thing to try to predict the number of vehicles
needed to serve the population, it's another to predict the effect on
highways.
I have not seen any research on the effect on highways yet. Just
because the same vehicle can be used for multiple trips doesn't mean
that the number of vehicles on the highway will decrease. Here are some
thoughts to mull over:
- If usage rates are highest during peak times, that might encourage
people to spread out their commute times, reducing the number of
vehicles needed and the street capacities.
- Because a user wouldn't have to deal with parking, it is conceivable
that mass transit use could increase: a car could drop you off at a rail
station (or BRT, etc) and, if needed, you could take another private
vehicle at the other end. No waiting, very little walking.
- Many users would likely want to own their own vehicle for some of the
same reasons they do today: instantly available, can leave your
belongings in it, familarity.
- In theory, more vehicles could be crammed on a highway at high speeds
since control and reaction times should be more accurate.
- On city streets, I assume there would be less capacity improvement
since it's hard to get closer than bumper-to-bumper.
Peri
------ Original Message ------
From: "Ed Blackmond via EV" <[email protected]>
To: "Electric Vehicle Discussion List" <[email protected]>
Sent: 09-Jun-15 4:30:05 PM
Subject: Re: [EVDL] How Uber's Auton-EVs will reshape the economy
On Jun 9, 2015, at 2:51 PM, Ben Goren via EV <[email protected]>
wrote:
On Jun 9, 2015, at 6:02 AM, brucedp5 via EV <[email protected]>
wrote:
How Uber's Autonomous Cars Will Reshape The Economy By 2025
By SeekingAlpha, May 31, 2015 By Zack Kanter
For anybody skeptical about this, I have two questions. How many
people had smart phones in 2005? How many people do you know today who
don’t have a smart phone?
Couple more thoughts on this....
First, I think there's still a logistical challenge to be faced with
replacing the commuter car fleet with autonomous Johnny Cab taxies --
namely, that there's a reason why rush hour is a clusterfuck of
single-occupancy vehicles. To a first approximation, we'll still need
roughly the same number of self-driving public / private cars as we do
today, because we'll still have roughly the same number of people
going to work at roughly the same time. And those people will be as
interested in sharing a ride with other people in the future as they
are today. That is, it seems to me like the estimates in the article
are naïvely assuming a fleet sized for the average demand will
suffice, whereas the fleet still needs to be sized for peak demand.
Electric grid operators could offer some insights to these analysts.
Around here (Silicon Valley), the commute congestion period lasts about
four hours in the evening from 3pm to 7pm. It seems to be a little
more spread out in the morning. A vehicle that takes someone home from
work between 3pm and 4pm could take somebody else home from work from
5pm to 6pm and pick up somebody else at 7pm and take them home. This
indicates that peak size could be on the order of 1/3 of todays
commuter fleet.
Would a driverless car be allowed to use the HOV lane?
Ed
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