On 20 Nov 2016 at 11:43, Cor van de Water via EV wrote: > If China and India and Europe and several countries of S America and > Asia are moving to electric transportation then it is pretty irrelevant > what happens in USA ...
I wouldn't go so far as to say "irrelevant," because the US is (at least for the moment) a pretty large market for new vehicles. But it's far from the only market. Vehicle demand is trending up in places we would have called "third world" just a few years ago, and some of those places think that EVs might be a good idea. It's possible that success in rolling back EV demand in the US might prompt the automakers to try similar strategies in other countries. Some of them will no doubt be open to it. Early UK legislative proposals after the "Brexit" vote had to do with weakening environmental laws, some of which were originally passed to comply with EU regulations. That is likely to spread. Radical political changes have already taken place in Hungary and Poland. "Brexit" style changes are also somwhere between possible and likely over the next few elections in France, Austria, Germany, Netherlands, and Sweden. We could see the weakening or even the complete breakup of the EU. That would be a dismaying setback for environmental law and for EVs. I guess this all sounds kind of dire (just call me Mr Worst Case Scenario), but still my hope is that EVs are close to some kind of critical mass internationally. If that's true, EVs WILL be manufactured around the world. Despite Elon Musk's confidence it's still a tough slog for a small upstart automaker (look what happened to Pivco / Think), so let's hope the EV manufacturers' list continues to include Tesla. Which of these EVs are offered in the US will depend on many factors, from perceived demand and profitability to impending US protectionism and economic isolation. For example, tightening US FMVSS while loosening emissions regulations would favor large US ICEVs at the expense of imports, smaller vehicles, and EVs. > besides a repeat of the 70's where the USA automakers were wiped away > by events beyond their control due to their lack of preparation for > change (not entirely unlike Dinosaurs). I think that's likely, but who knows when? OPEC was pretty successful in throttling the US with their oil blockade, but that was 40+ years ago, and our petroleum sources are more diverse now. There's also that protectionist sentiment I mentioned above. OTOH, big energy companies already have plenty of market control, and I sure don't see that diminishing. I can imagine an internal US version of OPEC, or an Enron style cartel, manufacturing an artifical fuel shortage for the sake of their profits, just as well as I can imagine an actual depletion of reserves. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_electricity_crisis Also, weakening US MPG and energy efficiency requirements could trigger a small orgy of energy consumption here. That would hasten the "day of petroleum reckoning." (It would also be pretty bad news for the rest of the world.) Interesting times, indeed. David Roden - Akron, Ohio, USA EVDL Administrator = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = EVDL Information: http://www.evdl.org/help/ = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = Note: mail sent to "evpost" and "etpost" addresses will not reach me. To send a private message, please obtain my email address from the webpage http://www.evdl.org/help/ . = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = _______________________________________________ UNSUBSCRIBE: http://www.evdl.org/help/index.html#usub http://lists.evdl.org/listinfo.cgi/ev-evdl.org Read EVAngel's EV News at http://evdl.org/evln/ Please discuss EV drag racing at NEDRA (http://groups.yahoo.com/group/NEDRA)
