On 24 May 2021 at 11:26, Larry Gales via EV wrote:

> The smaller you make a gas vehicle, the uglier, noisier, dirtier, they
> become . In addition, they are proportionally less efficient.  So small gas
> vehicles are generally a bad idea: they are responsible for much of the
> horrific pollution you see in much of asia.

This is true in practice, but I don't think it's inherent to their size.  
They COULD be clean and quiet, even with ICEVs.  However, that's usually not 
required by law, so the manufacturers don't bother.  

>From what I've read, the engines usually fitted are of crude design, with 
little or no emission control.  I'd guess air cooled with poppet or pushrod 
valves, simple carburetors, and mechanical ignition systems.  I know that a 
fair number of Tuktuks are powered by two-stroke engines.  Some, I think, 
are Diesel. They're gross polluters, and noisy to boot.

The reason that EV is better for these uses is the same reason that it's 
better for all road transportation.  The only difference is that normal 
passenger ICEVs have evolved significantly and have mandated emission 
controls, so the improvement for them isn't quite as dramatic.

> Right now, the only type of micro electric vehicle that is surging in
> a major way, is the electric bike. But I believe that NEVs should also
> become a major part of the mix.  

E-bikes were the first EV sucess story of our time, from about the 1990s.  

IMO the key to that success is that they're cheap.  That's because they sell 
in large volumes in Asia, particularly China.  Economy of scale, 
competition, and cheap sweatshop labor have driven the price down to where 
you can get an fairly decent E-bike for well under $1k.

E-bikes are so cheap that for many middle income folks they can almost be an 
impulse purchase.  It's a hobby or fun weekend vehicle at almost a toy 
price.  If you're the right kind of person, it can even be a commuter.

But the most important factor is that E-bike cost is in line with their 
utility.  Yeah, that $700 E-bike does a lot less than a car, but it costs 
about 1/30 as much as an "entry level" car.

An NEV also does less than a car, but more than an E-bike.  For one thing, 
it keeps you dry!  (Or should.)  You should be able to sell one if you price 
it in line with its level of utility.  

And that's a problem.  I can tell you that in the early 2000s, NEVs priced 
at (IIRC) $7-10k didn't sell in significant numbers.  Part of that may be 
because they looked like (and were) glorified golf cars.  But I think that a 
big reason is that they were just too close to the price of low-end ICEVs, 
while being far less practical and comfortable.

Still true today.  Right now in France you can get a basic 2-seat 5hp 
Renault Twizy EV (doors optional!) that will go 28mph.  It costs just over 
10k euros.  Or you can buy a 4-seat Twingo ICEV for 13.5k euros, close the 
(standard) doors, and take it up to 100mph, if you're brave enough. 

You know who in France buys a Twizy instead of a Twingo?  People who've lost 
their driving licenses from drunk driving, because in France you can drive a 
28mph car without a driving license.  (Really.)  

It's not just perception of value.  An NEV *is* low valiue compared to the 
cheapest ICEV.  It only carries 2 people and minimal cargo.  You can't take 
it on most roads.  To get across town without the innerbelt, you have to 
pull out the map and plot a course that here in the Midwest often goes 
through rough neighborhoods - at 25 mph.  

So if an NEV is going to have anything close to the success that E-bikes 
have had, it has to be cheap, in line with its value as transportation.

How cheap?  I don't know.  You'd have to study the market, survey vehicle 
buyers.  But a wild, irresponsible guess might be around $5k, maybe $7k.

David Roden, EVDL moderator & general lackey

To reach me, don't reply to this message; I won't get it.  Use my 
offlist address here : http://evdl.org/help/index.html#supt

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