I am trying to understand if Zeihan has an agenda. His expertise is understanding geography and demographics. Knowing what ingredients go into making the world go around, and details like, what does it take to make the unique aluminum alloy that Tesla has crafted to make body parts that are not steel. The claim is that this is significant and the carbon footprint of an ICE made from steel is significantly better.
Regarding the inputs to EVs, certainly the availability of lithium is not good. Nor is it good for cobalt, or nickel. I have spent some time thinking about the battery business, even had conversations with Jeff Dahn and Aaron Cross (the Tesla cell life engineer). The time and commitment to mine and process more of these material inputs could be a serious impediment to EV growth. Regarding LiFePO, we have enough phosphate for current use like fertilizer for crops. It takes years to build and start operating a phosphate mine. If LiFePO is the future, we do not have a ready supply. I posted so maybe I could get some wisdom that is not anecdotal. Does anyone know about the supply side of Li batteries? In 2013 when I was studying this topic, it did not look like a sure thing. Do we know what sort of carbon cost is built into them? Only JB Straubel is working the recycling angle. How is that going? At this moment in time, EV production is nowhere near the scale necessary to make headway reducing carbon in the atmosphere. It could be we are years or decades from solving this. That is the gist of Zeihan's assertion. Now that we are getting shale oil in North America, that cost is way less for us in the US. That alone can damage the transition to EVs from ICE. I think there is a lot of guesswork being presented to the effect that EVs are going to be with us soon, en masse. On Thu, Jan 5, 2023 at 1:59 AM Steves via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org> wrote: > Haven’t read the article, but perhaps he assumes virgin aluminum, which is > very energy intensive. However even if virgin aluminum is used, 90% of big > scrap (like car) aluminum is recycled, so that energy is essentially > reclaimed out the back end. > > One has to read this kind of stuff very carefully. My dad was a staunch > conservative and listened religiously to Rush Limbaugh. RL was ranting one > day about laws to give up regular lightbulbs for CFLs, and if you broke a > CFL your house became a hazmat area due the (minuscule) amount of mercury. > I had to explain that since most of our energy comes from coal, and coal > has mercury, that regular bulbs, being so inefficient, cause much more > mercury to be spewed into the atmosphere over the bulbs lifetime. > > That’s why I haven’t bothered reading the article. Beware of people with > agendas. > > -Steve > > > On Jan 4, 2023, at 11:36 PM, Michael Ross via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org> > wrote: > > > > Zeihan says ICE looks a lot better and leans on the aluminum in the > Tesla > > bodywork. I wonder about this, but don't know how to evaluate it. > > > >> On Wed, Jan 4, 2023 at 4:36 PM John Lussmyer via EV <ev@lists.evdl.org> > >> wrote: > >> > >> Just one of the many issues to point out: > >> > >>> On 1/4/2023 12:29 PM, Michael Ross via EV wrote: > >>> The carbon footprint of Teslas > >>> is not good when you correctly factor in the manufacturing footprint. > >> > >> > >> Do the same calcs for a Gas car - which makes the EV look far better. > >> > >> > >> _______________________________________________ > >> Address messages to ev@lists.evdl.org > >> No other addresses in TO and CC fields > >> HELP: http://www.evdl.org/help/ > >> > >> > > > > -- > > Michael E. Ross > > (919) 585-6737 Land > > (919) 901-2805 Cell and Text > > (919) 576-0824 <https://www.google.com/voice/b/0?pli=1#phones> Tablet, > > Google Phone and Text > > -------------- next part -------------- > > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > > URL: < > http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20230104/0b4625d1/attachment.htm > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Address messages to ev@lists.evdl.org > > No other addresses in TO and CC fields > > HELP: http://www.evdl.org/help/ > > > > _______________________________________________ > Address messages to ev@lists.evdl.org > No other addresses in TO and CC fields > HELP: http://www.evdl.org/help/ > > -- Michael E. Ross (919) 585-6737 Land (919) 901-2805 Cell and Text (919) 576-0824 <https://www.google.com/voice/b/0?pli=1#phones> Tablet, Google Phone and Text -------------- next part -------------- An HTML attachment was scrubbed... URL: <http://lists.evdl.org/private.cgi/ev-evdl.org/attachments/20230105/f0f49aac/attachment.htm> _______________________________________________ Address messages to ev@lists.evdl.org No other addresses in TO and CC fields HELP: http://www.evdl.org/help/
