Günther Greindl wrote:
> Thomas,
>
>   
>> MW must be some how different from the same concept in everyday
>> language? In the latter "probably" just means "likely to happen" but
>> if EVERYTHING happens then how can the concept make sense? I guess it
>> must be two different concepts, then?
>>     
>
> I wouldn't say so. Always look at the word "probably" as referring to 
> uncertainty in the _epistemic state of an agent_; and not as uncertainty 
> what will happen in the world. Then you see that it is the same concept 
> in both cases.
>
> Cheers,
> Günther
>
>   
I don't think that resolves the problem.  An epistemic state is a state 
of knowledge, so it just pushes the problem off to the question 
"knowledge of what?" 

Or perhaps you're thinking of "epistemic" as a state of belief.  But 
then probabilities become purely subjective and something else is needed 
to relate them back to things like relative frequencies.

In my view probability theory is a mathematical model and it is useful 
precisely because it applies (not necessarily exactly, but as a good 
approximation) to things.  So one switches between relative frequency, 
propensity, and subjective interpretations in a single problem.

Brent

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