On Apr 16, 6:01 am, "rexallen...@gmail.com" <rexallen...@gmail.com>
> What would make universes with honest initial conditions + causal laws
> more probable than deceptive ones?  For every honest universe it would
> seem possible to have an infinite number of deceptive universes that
> are the equivalent of "The Matrix" - they give rise to conscious
> entities who have convincing but incorrect beliefs about how their
> universe really is.  These entities' beliefs are based on perceptions
> that are only illusions, or simulations (naturally occurring or
> intelligently designed), or hallucinations, or dreams.
> It seems to me that it would be a bit of a miracle if it turned out
> that we lived in a universe whose initial state and causal laws were
> such that they gave rise to conscious entities whose beliefs about
> their universe were true beliefs.

I agree, if the initial conditions and laws are complex enough that
the Matrix is directly baked there. If we want to talk about
probabilities we'd need to assign some measure to possible universes,
and most of the mass will be concentrated on the simple universes.
However, "simple" in this case doesn't mean much and wouldn't preclude
Matrix-like universes.

It's even worse when you consider how much more likely it is that we
live in a simulation :). Although, for every simulated world there's a
possible universe with the exact same structure, so it might be
difficult to distinguish between the two, even in principle.

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