It's amazing how much damage the Anthropogenic CO2 can do to the Solar 
Photosphere. ;-)

-----Original Message-----
From: smitra <>
To: everything-list <>
Sent: Sat, Jun 15, 2013 10:43 am
Subject: Re: On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter

Not assumed to be caused, but known to be caused. The science is clear, 
t's only that the vast majority of the population is science 
lliterate to the point that many people with university degrees in 
conomics, engineering etc. don't know much about physics and are 
usceptible to the same nonsense as most lay persons.
Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single 
ost important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth¡¯s atmosphere. 
his is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons, 
oes not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current 
limate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing 
reenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial 
reenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature 
tructure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor 
nd clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of 
he greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO2 
nd the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial 
reenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound 
arth state.
It often is stated that water vapor is the chief greenhouse gas (GHG) 
n the atmosphere. For example, it has been asserted that ¡°about 98% 
f the natural greenhouse effect is due to water vapour and stratiform 
louds with CO2 contributing less than 2%¡± (1). If true, this would 
mply that changes in atmospheric CO2 are not important influences on 
he natural greenhouse capacity of Earth, and that the continuing 
ncrease in CO2 due to human activity is therefore not relevant to 
limate change. This misunderstanding is resolved through simple 
xamination of the terrestrial greenhouse.
The difference between the nominal global mean surface temperature (TS 
 288 K) and the global mean effective temperature (TE = 255 K) is a 
ommon measure of the terrestrial greenhouse effect (GT = TS ¨C TE = 33 
). Assuming global energy balance, TE is also the Planck radiation 
quivalent of the 240 W/m2 of global mean solar radiation absorbed by 
The Sun is the source of energy that heats Earth. Besides direct solar 
eating of the ground, there is also indirect longwave (LW) warming 
rising from the thermal radiation that is emitted by the ground, then 
bsorbed locally within the atmosphere, from which it is re-emitted in 
oth upward and downward directions, further heating the ground and 
aintaining the temperature gradient in the atmosphere. This radiative 
nteraction is the greenhouse effect, which was first discovered by 
oseph Fourier in 1824 (2), experimentally verified by John Tyndall in 
863 (3), and quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896 (4). These studies 
stablished long ago that water vapor and CO2 are indeed the principal 
errestrial GHGs. Now, further consideration shows that CO2 is the one 
hat controls climate change.
CO2 is a well-mixed gas that does not condense or precipitate from the 
tmosphere. Water vapor and clouds, on the other hand, are highly 
ctive components of the climate system that respond rapidly to changes 
n temperature and air pressure by evaporating, condensing, and 
recipitating. This identifies water vapor and clouds as the fast 
eedback processes in the climate system.
Radiative forcing experiments assuming doubled CO2 and a 2% increase in 
olar irradiance (5) show that water vapor provides the strongest 
limate feedback of any of the atmospheric GHGs, but that it is not the 
ause (forcing) of global climate change. The response of the climate 
ystem to an applied forcing is determined to be the sum of the direct 
no-feedback) response to the applied forcing and the induced radiative 
esponse that is attributable to the feedback process contributions. 
he ratio of the total climate response to the no-feedback response is 
ommonly known as the feedback factor, which incorporates all the 
omplexities of the climate system feedback interactions. For the 
oubled CO2 and the 2% solar irradiance forcings, for which the direct 
o-feedback responses of the global surface temperature are 1.2¡ã and 
.3¡ãC, respectively, the ~4¡ãC surface warming implies respective 
eedback factors of 3.3 and 3.0 (5).
Because the solar-thermal energy balance of Earth [at the top of the 
tmosphere (TOA)] is maintained by radiative processes only, and 
ecause all the global net advective energy transports must equal zero, 
t follows that the global average surface temperature must be 
etermined in full by the radiative fluxes arising from the patterns of 
emperature and absorption of radiation. This then is the basic 
nderlying physics that explains the close coupling that exists between 
OA radiative fluxes, the greenhouse effect, and the global mean 
urface temperature.
An improved understanding of the relative importance of the different 
ontributors to the greenhouse effect comes from radiative flux 
xperiments that we performed using Goddard Institute for Space Studies 
GISS) ModelE (6). Figure 1 depicts the essence of these calculations, 
ncluding the separation of the greenhouse contributors into feedback 
nd forcing categories.
In round numbers, water vapor accounts for about 50% of Earth¡¯s 
reenhouse effect, with clouds contributing 25%, CO2 20%, and the minor 
HGs and aerosols accounting for the remaining 5%. Because CO2, O3, 
2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) do not condense and 
recipitate, noncondensing GHGs constitute the key 25% of the radiative 
orcing that supports and sustains the entire terrestrial greenhouse 
ffect, the remaining 75% coming as fast feedback contributions from 
ater vapor and clouds.
We used the GISS 4¡ã ¡Á 5¡ã ModelE to calculate changes in 
nstantaneous LW TOA flux (annual global averages) in experiments where 
tmospheric constituents (including water vapor, clouds, CO2, O3, N2O, 
H4, CFCs, and aerosols) were added to or subtracted from an 
quilibrium atmosphere with a given global temperature structure, one 
onstituent at a time for a 1-year period. Decreases in outgoing TOA 
lux for each constituent relative to the empty or the full-component 
tmosphere define the bounds for the relative impact on the total 
reenhouse effect. Had the overlapping absorption been negligible, the 
um of the flux differences would have been equal to the LW flux 
quivalent of the total greenhouse effect (GF = ¦ÒTS^4 ¨C ¦ÒTE^4 = 150 
/m2), where ¦Ò is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. We found the 
ingle-addition flux differences to be overestimated by a factor of 
.36, whereas in the single-subtraction cases, the sum of the TOA flux 
ifferences was underestimated by a factor of 0.734. By normalizing 
hese fractional contributions to match the full-atmosphere value of 
F, we obtained the fractional response contributions shown in Fig. 1.
Because of overlapping absorption, the fractional attribution of the 
reenhouse effect is to some extent qualitative (as shown by the dashed 
nd dotted extremum lines in Fig. 1), even though the spectral integral 
s a full and accurate determination of the atmospheric greenhouse 
trength for the specified global temperature structure. Still, the 
ractional attribution is sufficiently precise to clearly differentiate 
he radiative flux contributions due to the noncondensable GHGs from 
hose arising from the fast feedback processes. This allows an 
mpirical determination of the climate feedback factor as the ratio of 
he total global flux change to the flux change that is attributable to 
he radiative forcing due to the noncondensing GHGs. This empirical 
etermination leads then to a climate feedback factor of 4, based on 
he noncondensing GHG forcing accounting for 25% of the outgoing flux 
eduction at the TOA for the full-constituent atmosphere. This implies 
hat Earth¡¯s climate system operates with strong positive feedback 
hat arises from the forcing-induced changes in the condensable species.
A direct consequence of this combination of feedback by the condensable 
nd forcing by the noncondensable constituents of the atmospheric 
reenhouse is that the terrestrial greenhouse effect would collapse 
ere it not for the presence of these noncondensing GHGs. If the global 
tmospheric temperatures were to fall to as low as TS = TE, the 
lausius-Clapeyron relation would imply that the sustainable amount of 
tmospheric water vapor would become less than 10% of the current 
tmospheric value. This would result in (radiative) forcing reduced by 
30 W/m2, causing much of the remaining water vapor to precipitate, 
hus enhancing the snow/ice albedo to further diminish the absorbed 
olar radiation. Such a condition would inevitably lead to runaway 
laciation, producing an ice ball Earth.
Claims that removing all CO2 from the atmosphere ¡°would lead to a 1¡ãC 
ecrease in global warming¡± (7), or ¡°by 3.53¡ãC when 40% cloud cover 
s assumed¡± [8] are still being heard. A clear demonstration is needed 
o show that water vapor and clouds do indeed behave as fast feedback 
rocesses and that their atmospheric distributions are regulated by the 
ustained radiative forcing due to the noncondensing GHGs. To this end, 
e performed a simple climate experiment with the GISS 2¡ã ¡Á 2.5¡ã AR5 
ersion of ModelE, using the Q-flux ocean with a mixed-layer depth of 
50 m, zeroing out all the noncondensing GHGs and aerosols.
The results, summarized in Fig. 2, show unequivocally that the 
adiative forcing by noncondensing GHGs is essential to sustain the 
tmospheric temperatures that are needed for significant levels of 
ater vapor and cloud feedback. Without this noncondensable GHG 
orcing, the physics of this model send the climate of Earth plunging 
apidly and irrevocably to an icebound state, though perhaps not to 
otal ocean freezeover.
The scope of the climate impact becomes apparent in just 10 years. 
uring the first year alone, global mean surface temperature falls by 
.6¡ãC. After 50 years, the global temperature stands at ¨C21¡ãC, a 
ecrease of 34.8¡ãC. Atmospheric water vapor is at ~10% of the control 
limate value (22.6 to 2.2 mm). Global cloud cover increases from its 
8% control value to more than 75%, and the global sea ice fraction 
oes from 4.6% to 46.7%, causing the planetary albedo of Earth to also 
ncrease from ~29% to 41.8%. This has the effect of reducing the 
bsorbed solar energy to further exacerbate the global cooling.
After 50 years, a third of the ocean surface still remains ice-free, 
ven though the global surface temperature is colder than ¨C21¡ãC. At 
ropical latitudes, incident solar radiation is sufficient to keep the 
cean from freezing. Although this thermal oasis within an otherwise 
cebound Earth appears to be stable, further calculations with an 
nteractive ocean would be needed to verify the potential for long-term 
tability. The surface temperatures in Fig. 3 are only marginally 
armer than 1¡ãC within the remaining low-latitude heat island.
 From the foregoing, it is clear that CO2 is the key atmospheric gas 
hat exerts principal control over the strength of the terrestrial 
reenhouse effect. Water vapor and clouds are fast-acting feedback 
ffects, and as such are controlled by the radiative forcings supplied 
y the noncondensing GHGs. There is telling evidence that atmospheric 
O2 also governs the temperature of Earth on geological time scales, 
uggesting the related question of what the geological processes that 
ontrol atmospheric CO2 are. The geological evidence of glaciation at 
ropical latitudes from 650 to 750 million years ago supports the 
nowball Earth hypothesis (9), and by inference, that escape from the 
nowball Earth condition is also achievable.
On million-year time scales, volcanoes are the principal source of 
tmospheric CO2, and rock weathering is the principal sink, with the 
iosphere acting as both source and sink (10). Because the CO2 sources 
nd sinks operate independently, the atmospheric level of CO2 can 
luctuate. If the atmospheric CO2 level were to fall below its critical 
alue, snowball Earth conditions can result.
Antarctic and Greenland ice core data show atmospheric CO2 fluctuations 
etween 180 to 300 parts per million (ppm) over the 
lacial-interglacial cycles during the past 650,000 years (11). The 
elevant physical processes that turn the CO2 control knob on 
housand-year time scales between glacial and interglacial extremes are 
ot fully understood, but appear to involve both the biosphere and the 
cean chemistry, including a significant role for Milankovitch 
ariations of the Earth-orbital parameters.
Besides CO2, methane is another potent greenhouse control knob, being 
mplicated in the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximummass extinction 55 
illion years ago, when global warming by up to 5¡ãC (12) occurred 
ecause of a massive release of methane from the disintegration of 
eafloor clathrates (13, 14). Methane is the second most important 
oncondensing GHG after CO2. Of the 2.9 W/m2 of GHG radiative forcing 
rom 1750 to 2000, CO2 contributed 1.5 W/m2, methane 0.55 W/m2, and 
FCs 0.3 W/m2, with the rest coming from N2O and ozone (15). All of 
hese increases in noncondensing GHG forcing are attributable to human 
ctivity (16).
Climate control knobs on the solar side of the energy balance ledger 
nclude the steady growth in luminosity since the beginning of the 
olar System (from about 70% of present luminosity, depending on the 
ostulated early solar mass loss), as hydrogen is consumed in nuclear 
eactions in the solar interior (17, 18). Milankovitch variations of 
he Earth-orbital parameters, which alter the relative seasonal 
istribution as well as the intensity of incident solar radiation 
ithin the polar regions, are another important solar energy control 
nob that is intimately associated with glacial-interglacial cycles of 
limate change. For solar irradiance changes over the past several 
enturies, an increase by about 0.1 W/m2 is inferred since the time of 
he Maunder minimum, based on trends in sunspot activity and other 
roxies (19).
Of the climate control knobs relevant to current climate, those on the 
olar side of the energy balance ledger show only negligible impact. 
everal decades of solar irradiance monitoring have not detected any 
ong-term trends in solar irradiance beyond the 11-year oscillation 
ssociated with the solar sunspot cycle. Large volcanic eruptions can 
appen at any time, but no substantial eruptions have occurred since 
he eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991.
In a broader perspective, CO2 greenhouses also operate on Mars and 
enus, because both planets possess atmospheres with substantial 
mounts of CO2. The atmospheric greenhouse effect requires that a 
ubstantial fraction of the incident solar radiation must be absorbed 
t the ground in order to make the indirect greenhouse heating of the 
round surface possible. Greenhouse parameters and relative surface 
ressure (PS) for Mars, Earth, and Venus are summarized in Table 1.
Earth is unique among terrestrial planets in having a greenhouse effect 
n which water vapor provides strong amplification of the heat-trapping 
ction of the CO2 greenhouse. Also, N2 and O2, although possessing no 
ubstantial absorption bands of their own, are actually important 
ontributors to the total greenhouse effect because of 
ressure-broadening of CO2 absorption lines, as well as by providing 
he physical structure within which the absorbing gases can interact 
ith the radiation field.
The anthropogenic radiative forcings that fuel the growing terrestrial 
reenhouse effect continue unabated. The continuing high rate of 
tmospheric CO2 increase is particularly worrisome, because the present 
O2 level of 390 ppm is far in excess of the 280 ppm that is more 
ypical for the interglacial maximum, and still the atmospheric CO2 
ontrol knob is now being turned faster than at any time in the 
eological record (20). The concern is that we are well past even the 
00- to 350-ppm target level for atmospheric CO2, beyond which 
angerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system would exceed 
he 25% risk tolerance for impending degradation of land and ocean 
cosystems, sea-level rise, and inevitable disruption of socioeconomic 
nd food-producing infrastructure (21, 22). Furthermore, the 
tmospheric residence time of CO2 is exceedingly long, being measured 
n thousands of years (23). This makes the reduction and control of 
tmospheric CO2 a serious and pressing issue, worthy of real-time 

Citeren Roger Clough <>:
 On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter

 Up to the present day, studies of global warming were
 based on CO2 levels in the atmosphere, assumed to be caused by
 automobiles (the supposed greenhouse effect).
 But more resent studies show that total solar irradiation (TSI) --
 solar radiation coming from outside of the atmosphere-  not CO2 levels--
 is  the driving force:

 C02 levels are not reliable indicators of what causes surface
 temperature warming (the supposed greenhouse effect) ?
 Why ? Because some of the CO2 in the atmosphere is there because as 
 the earth warms, the
 oceans warm and CO2 gases sare less soluble in warmer water, so fizle out
 into the atmosphere. So it is doubtful to say that current levels of CO2
 are entirely from automobiles.

 So current scientific evalutations as in the graph below do not rely on CO2
 measurements, they use solar radiation which is not influenced by C02 levels
 and relate that instead to surface gtemperatures.

 The total solar radiation (TSI) is not obtained from measurements 
 made on earth, so
 it isn't supposed to include greenshouse gas effects. It is measured 
 these days by satellite,
 but is reconconstructed from pre-satellite days (<1979 ) based on a model
 based on the number of sunspots.

 "Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface 
 magnetic flux
 N. A. Krivova, L. Balmaceda, and S. K. Solanki

 Max-Planck-Institut f? Sonnensystemforschung, Max-Planck-Str. 2, 
 37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany

 (Received 9 November 2006 / Accepted 23 February 2007)

 Context.Total solar irradiance changes by about 0.1% between solar 
 activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this quantity 
 are only available since 1978 and do not provide information on 
 longer-term secular trends.
 Aims.In order to reliably evaluate the Sun's role in recent global 
 climate change, longer time series are, however, needed. They can 
 only be assessed with the help of suitable models.
 Methods.The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of 
 the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the surface 
 distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated 
 from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but 
 consistent physical model.
 Results.Our model successfully reproduces three independent data 
 sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total 
 photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux 
 since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-index. 
 The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since 
 the Maunder minimum of $1.3^{\rm +0.2}_{\rm -0.4}$ Wm-2. "

 Dr. Roger Clough NIST (ret.) 3/30/2013
 "Coincidences are God's way of remaining anonymous."
 - Albert Einstein

 Dr. Roger Clough NIST (ret.) 6/15/2013
 See my Leibniz site at

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