# Re: On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter

It's amazing how much damage the Anthropogenic CO2 can do to the Solar
Photosphere. ;-)


-----Original Message-----
From: smitra <smi...@zonnet.nl>
Sent: Sat, Jun 15, 2013 10:43 am
Subject: Re: On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter

Not assumed to be caused, but known to be caused. The science is clear,
t's only that the vast majority of the population is science
lliterate to the point that many people with university degrees in
conomics, engineering etc. don't know much about physics and are
usceptible to the same nonsense as most lay persons.
http://www.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356.full
ABSTRACT
Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single
ost important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth¡¯s atmosphere.
his is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons,
oes not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current
limate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing
reenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial
reenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature
tructure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor
nd clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of
he greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO2
nd the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial
reenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound
arth state.
It often is stated that water vapor is the chief greenhouse gas (GHG)
n the atmosphere. For example, it has been asserted that ¡°about 98%
f the natural greenhouse effect is due to water vapour and stratiform
louds with CO2 contributing less than 2%¡± (1). If true, this would
mply that changes in atmospheric CO2 are not important influences on
he natural greenhouse capacity of Earth, and that the continuing
ncrease in CO2 due to human activity is therefore not relevant to
limate change. This misunderstanding is resolved through simple
xamination of the terrestrial greenhouse.
The difference between the nominal global mean surface temperature (TS
288 K) and the global mean effective temperature (TE = 255 K) is a
ommon measure of the terrestrial greenhouse effect (GT = TS ¨C TE = 33
). Assuming global energy balance, TE is also the Planck radiation
quivalent of the 240 W/m2 of global mean solar radiation absorbed by
arth.
The Sun is the source of energy that heats Earth. Besides direct solar
eating of the ground, there is also indirect longwave (LW) warming
rising from the thermal radiation that is emitted by the ground, then
bsorbed locally within the atmosphere, from which it is re-emitted in
oth upward and downward directions, further heating the ground and
nteraction is the greenhouse effect, which was first discovered by
oseph Fourier in 1824 (2), experimentally verified by John Tyndall in
863 (3), and quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896 (4). These studies
stablished long ago that water vapor and CO2 are indeed the principal
errestrial GHGs. Now, further consideration shows that CO2 is the one
hat controls climate change.
CO2 is a well-mixed gas that does not condense or precipitate from the
tmosphere. Water vapor and clouds, on the other hand, are highly
ctive components of the climate system that respond rapidly to changes
n temperature and air pressure by evaporating, condensing, and
recipitating. This identifies water vapor and clouds as the fast
eedback processes in the climate system.
Radiative forcing experiments assuming doubled CO2 and a 2% increase in
olar irradiance (5) show that water vapor provides the strongest
limate feedback of any of the atmospheric GHGs, but that it is not the
ause (forcing) of global climate change. The response of the climate
ystem to an applied forcing is determined to be the sum of the direct
no-feedback) response to the applied forcing and the induced radiative
esponse that is attributable to the feedback process contributions.
he ratio of the total climate response to the no-feedback response is
ommonly known as the feedback factor, which incorporates all the
omplexities of the climate system feedback interactions. For the
oubled CO2 and the 2% solar irradiance forcings, for which the direct
o-feedback responses of the global surface temperature are 1.2¡ã and
.3¡ãC, respectively, the ~4¡ãC surface warming implies respective
eedback factors of 3.3 and 3.0 (5).
Because the solar-thermal energy balance of Earth [at the top of the
tmosphere (TOA)] is maintained by radiative processes only, and
ecause all the global net advective energy transports must equal zero,
t follows that the global average surface temperature must be
etermined in full by the radiative fluxes arising from the patterns of
emperature and absorption of radiation. This then is the basic
nderlying physics that explains the close coupling that exists between
OA radiative fluxes, the greenhouse effect, and the global mean
urface temperature.
An improved understanding of the relative importance of the different
ontributors to the greenhouse effect comes from radiative flux
xperiments that we performed using Goddard Institute for Space Studies
GISS) ModelE (6). Figure 1 depicts the essence of these calculations,
ncluding the separation of the greenhouse contributors into feedback
nd forcing categories.
In round numbers, water vapor accounts for about 50% of Earth¡¯s
reenhouse effect, with clouds contributing 25%, CO2 20%, and the minor
HGs and aerosols accounting for the remaining 5%. Because CO2, O3,
2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) do not condense and
recipitate, noncondensing GHGs constitute the key 25% of the radiative
orcing that supports and sustains the entire terrestrial greenhouse
ffect, the remaining 75% coming as fast feedback contributions from
ater vapor and clouds.
We used the GISS 4¡ã ¡Á 5¡ã ModelE to calculate changes in
nstantaneous LW TOA flux (annual global averages) in experiments where
tmospheric constituents (including water vapor, clouds, CO2, O3, N2O,
H4, CFCs, and aerosols) were added to or subtracted from an
quilibrium atmosphere with a given global temperature structure, one
onstituent at a time for a 1-year period. Decreases in outgoing TOA
lux for each constituent relative to the empty or the full-component
tmosphere define the bounds for the relative impact on the total
reenhouse effect. Had the overlapping absorption been negligible, the
um of the flux differences would have been equal to the LW flux
quivalent of the total greenhouse effect (GF = ¦ÒTS^4 ¨C ¦ÒTE^4 = 150
/m2), where ¦Ò is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. We found the
ingle-addition flux differences to be overestimated by a factor of
.36, whereas in the single-subtraction cases, the sum of the TOA flux
ifferences was underestimated by a factor of 0.734. By normalizing
hese fractional contributions to match the full-atmosphere value of
F, we obtained the fractional response contributions shown in Fig. 1.
Because of overlapping absorption, the fractional attribution of the
reenhouse effect is to some extent qualitative (as shown by the dashed
nd dotted extremum lines in Fig. 1), even though the spectral integral
s a full and accurate determination of the atmospheric greenhouse
trength for the specified global temperature structure. Still, the
ractional attribution is sufficiently precise to clearly differentiate
he radiative flux contributions due to the noncondensable GHGs from
hose arising from the fast feedback processes. This allows an
mpirical determination of the climate feedback factor as the ratio of
he total global flux change to the flux change that is attributable to
he radiative forcing due to the noncondensing GHGs. This empirical
etermination leads then to a climate feedback factor of 4, based on
he noncondensing GHG forcing accounting for 25% of the outgoing flux
eduction at the TOA for the full-constituent atmosphere. This implies
hat Earth¡¯s climate system operates with strong positive feedback
hat arises from the forcing-induced changes in the condensable species.
A direct consequence of this combination of feedback by the condensable
nd forcing by the noncondensable constituents of the atmospheric
reenhouse is that the terrestrial greenhouse effect would collapse
ere it not for the presence of these noncondensing GHGs. If the global
tmospheric temperatures were to fall to as low as TS = TE, the
lausius-Clapeyron relation would imply that the sustainable amount of
tmospheric water vapor would become less than 10% of the current
tmospheric value. This would result in (radiative) forcing reduced by
30 W/m2, causing much of the remaining water vapor to precipitate,
hus enhancing the snow/ice albedo to further diminish the absorbed
laciation, producing an ice ball Earth.
Claims that removing all CO2 from the atmosphere ¡°would lead to a 1¡ãC
ecrease in global warming¡± (7), or ¡°by 3.53¡ãC when 40% cloud cover
s assumed¡± [8] are still being heard. A clear demonstration is needed
o show that water vapor and clouds do indeed behave as fast feedback
rocesses and that their atmospheric distributions are regulated by the
ustained radiative forcing due to the noncondensing GHGs. To this end,
e performed a simple climate experiment with the GISS 2¡ã ¡Á 2.5¡ã AR5
ersion of ModelE, using the Q-flux ocean with a mixed-layer depth of
50 m, zeroing out all the noncondensing GHGs and aerosols.
The results, summarized in Fig. 2, show unequivocally that the
adiative forcing by noncondensing GHGs is essential to sustain the
tmospheric temperatures that are needed for significant levels of
ater vapor and cloud feedback. Without this noncondensable GHG
orcing, the physics of this model send the climate of Earth plunging
apidly and irrevocably to an icebound state, though perhaps not to
otal ocean freezeover.
The scope of the climate impact becomes apparent in just 10 years.
uring the first year alone, global mean surface temperature falls by
.6¡ãC. After 50 years, the global temperature stands at ¨C21¡ãC, a
ecrease of 34.8¡ãC. Atmospheric water vapor is at ~10% of the control
limate value (22.6 to 2.2 mm). Global cloud cover increases from its
8% control value to more than 75%, and the global sea ice fraction
oes from 4.6% to 46.7%, causing the planetary albedo of Earth to also
ncrease from ~29% to 41.8%. This has the effect of reducing the
bsorbed solar energy to further exacerbate the global cooling.
After 50 years, a third of the ocean surface still remains ice-free,
ven though the global surface temperature is colder than ¨C21¡ãC. At
ropical latitudes, incident solar radiation is sufficient to keep the
cean from freezing. Although this thermal oasis within an otherwise
cebound Earth appears to be stable, further calculations with an
nteractive ocean would be needed to verify the potential for long-term
tability. The surface temperatures in Fig. 3 are only marginally
armer than 1¡ãC within the remaining low-latitude heat island.
From the foregoing, it is clear that CO2 is the key atmospheric gas
hat exerts principal control over the strength of the terrestrial
reenhouse effect. Water vapor and clouds are fast-acting feedback
ffects, and as such are controlled by the radiative forcings supplied
y the noncondensing GHGs. There is telling evidence that atmospheric
O2 also governs the temperature of Earth on geological time scales,
uggesting the related question of what the geological processes that
ontrol atmospheric CO2 are. The geological evidence of glaciation at
ropical latitudes from 650 to 750 million years ago supports the
nowball Earth hypothesis (9), and by inference, that escape from the
nowball Earth condition is also achievable.
On million-year time scales, volcanoes are the principal source of
tmospheric CO2, and rock weathering is the principal sink, with the
iosphere acting as both source and sink (10). Because the CO2 sources
nd sinks operate independently, the atmospheric level of CO2 can
luctuate. If the atmospheric CO2 level were to fall below its critical
alue, snowball Earth conditions can result.
Antarctic and Greenland ice core data show atmospheric CO2 fluctuations
etween 180 to 300 parts per million (ppm) over the
lacial-interglacial cycles during the past 650,000 years (11). The
elevant physical processes that turn the CO2 control knob on
housand-year time scales between glacial and interglacial extremes are
ot fully understood, but appear to involve both the biosphere and the
cean chemistry, including a significant role for Milankovitch
ariations of the Earth-orbital parameters.
Besides CO2, methane is another potent greenhouse control knob, being
mplicated in the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximummass extinction 55
illion years ago, when global warming by up to 5¡ãC (12) occurred
ecause of a massive release of methane from the disintegration of
eafloor clathrates (13, 14). Methane is the second most important
oncondensing GHG after CO2. Of the 2.9 W/m2 of GHG radiative forcing
rom 1750 to 2000, CO2 contributed 1.5 W/m2, methane 0.55 W/m2, and
FCs 0.3 W/m2, with the rest coming from N2O and ozone (15). All of
hese increases in noncondensing GHG forcing are attributable to human
ctivity (16).
Climate control knobs on the solar side of the energy balance ledger
nclude the steady growth in luminosity since the beginning of the
olar System (from about 70% of present luminosity, depending on the
ostulated early solar mass loss), as hydrogen is consumed in nuclear
eactions in the solar interior (17, 18). Milankovitch variations of
he Earth-orbital parameters, which alter the relative seasonal
istribution as well as the intensity of incident solar radiation
ithin the polar regions, are another important solar energy control
nob that is intimately associated with glacial-interglacial cycles of
limate change. For solar irradiance changes over the past several
enturies, an increase by about 0.1 W/m2 is inferred since the time of
he Maunder minimum, based on trends in sunspot activity and other
roxies (19).
Of the climate control knobs relevant to current climate, those on the
olar side of the energy balance ledger show only negligible impact.
ong-term trends in solar irradiance beyond the 11-year oscillation
ssociated with the solar sunspot cycle. Large volcanic eruptions can
appen at any time, but no substantial eruptions have occurred since
he eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991.
In a broader perspective, CO2 greenhouses also operate on Mars and
enus, because both planets possess atmospheres with substantial
mounts of CO2. The atmospheric greenhouse effect requires that a
ubstantial fraction of the incident solar radiation must be absorbed
t the ground in order to make the indirect greenhouse heating of the
round surface possible. Greenhouse parameters and relative surface
ressure (PS) for Mars, Earth, and Venus are summarized in Table 1.
Earth is unique among terrestrial planets in having a greenhouse effect
n which water vapor provides strong amplification of the heat-trapping
ction of the CO2 greenhouse. Also, N2 and O2, although possessing no
ubstantial absorption bands of their own, are actually important
ontributors to the total greenhouse effect because of
ressure-broadening of CO2 absorption lines, as well as by providing
he physical structure within which the absorbing gases can interact
The anthropogenic radiative forcings that fuel the growing terrestrial
reenhouse effect continue unabated. The continuing high rate of
tmospheric CO2 increase is particularly worrisome, because the present
O2 level of 390 ppm is far in excess of the 280 ppm that is more
ypical for the interglacial maximum, and still the atmospheric CO2
ontrol knob is now being turned faster than at any time in the
eological record (20). The concern is that we are well past even the
00- to 350-ppm target level for atmospheric CO2, beyond which
angerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system would exceed
he 25% risk tolerance for impending degradation of land and ocean
cosystems, sea-level rise, and inevitable disruption of socioeconomic
nd food-producing infrastructure (21, 22). Furthermore, the
tmospheric residence time of CO2 is exceedingly long, being measured
n thousands of years (23). This makes the reduction and control of
tmospheric CO2 a serious and pressing issue, worthy of real-time
ttention.

Citeren Roger Clough <rclo...@verizon.net>:
>
On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter

Up to the present day, studies of global warming were
based on CO2 levels in the atmosphere, assumed to be caused by
automobiles (the supposed greenhouse effect).
But more resent studies show that total solar irradiation (TSI) --
solar radiation coming from outside of the atmosphere-  not CO2 levels--
is  the driving force:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/06/soon-and-briggs-global-warming-fanatics-take-note-sunspots-do-impact-climate/

C02 levels are not reliable indicators of what causes surface
temperature warming (the supposed greenhouse effect) ?
.
Why ? Because some of the CO2 in the atmosphere is there because as
the earth warms, the
oceans warm and CO2 gases sare less soluble in warmer water, so fizle out
into the atmosphere. So it is doubtful to say that current levels of CO2
are entirely from automobiles.

So current scientific evalutations as in the graph below do not rely on CO2
measurements, they use solar radiation which is not influenced by C02 levels
and relate that instead to surface gtemperatures.

The total solar radiation (TSI) is not obtained from measurements
it isn't supposed to include greenshouse gas effects. It is measured
these days by satellite,
but is reconconstructed from pre-satellite days (<1979 ) based on a model
based on the number of sunspots.

http://www.aanda.org/index.php?option=com_article&access=standard&Itemid=129&url=/articles/aa/abs/2007/19/aa6725-06/aa6725-06.html

"Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface
magnetic flux
N. A. Krivova, L. Balmaceda, and S. K. Solanki

Max-Planck-Institut f? Sonnensystemforschung, Max-Planck-Str. 2,
37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany
e-mail: nata...@mps.mpg.de

(Received 9 November 2006 / Accepted 23 February 2007)

Abstract
activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this quantity
are only available since 1978 and do not provide information on
longer-term secular trends.
Aims.In order to reliably evaluate the Sun's role in recent global
climate change, longer time series are, however, needed. They can
only be assessed with the help of suitable models.
Methods.The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of
the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the surface
distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated
from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but
consistent physical model.
Results.Our model successfully reproduces three independent data
sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total
photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux
since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-index.
The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since
the Maunder minimum of $1.3^{\rm +0.2}_{\rm -0.4}$ Wm-2. "

Dr. Roger Clough NIST (ret.) 3/30/2013
"Coincidences are God's way of remaining anonymous."
- Albert Einstein
____________________________________________________________________

Dr. Roger Clough NIST (ret.) 6/15/2013
See my Leibniz site at

____________________________________________________________________
DreamMail - The first mail software supporting source tracking
www.dreammail.org

--
Groups "Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it,
To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com.

-
ou received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
Everything List" group.
o unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email
o post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com.

--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups
"Everything List" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email