It's amazing how much damage the Anthropogenic CO2 can do to the Solar Photosphere. ;-)
-----Original Message----- From: smitra <[email protected]> To: everything-list <[email protected]> Sent: Sat, Jun 15, 2013 10:43 am Subject: Re: On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter Not assumed to be caused, but known to be caused. The science is clear, t's only that the vast majority of the population is science lliterate to the point that many people with university degrees in conomics, engineering etc. don't know much about physics and are usceptible to the same nonsense as most lay persons. http://www.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356.full ABSTRACT Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single ost important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth¡¯s atmosphere. his is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons, oes not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current limate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing reenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial reenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature tructure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor nd clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of he greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO2 nd the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial reenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound arth state. It often is stated that water vapor is the chief greenhouse gas (GHG) n the atmosphere. For example, it has been asserted that ¡°about 98% f the natural greenhouse effect is due to water vapour and stratiform louds with CO2 contributing less than 2%¡± (1). If true, this would mply that changes in atmospheric CO2 are not important influences on he natural greenhouse capacity of Earth, and that the continuing ncrease in CO2 due to human activity is therefore not relevant to limate change. This misunderstanding is resolved through simple xamination of the terrestrial greenhouse. The difference between the nominal global mean surface temperature (TS 288 K) and the global mean effective temperature (TE = 255 K) is a ommon measure of the terrestrial greenhouse effect (GT = TS ¨C TE = 33 ). Assuming global energy balance, TE is also the Planck radiation quivalent of the 240 W/m2 of global mean solar radiation absorbed by arth. The Sun is the source of energy that heats Earth. Besides direct solar eating of the ground, there is also indirect longwave (LW) warming rising from the thermal radiation that is emitted by the ground, then bsorbed locally within the atmosphere, from which it is re-emitted in oth upward and downward directions, further heating the ground and aintaining the temperature gradient in the atmosphere. This radiative nteraction is the greenhouse effect, which was first discovered by oseph Fourier in 1824 (2), experimentally verified by John Tyndall in 863 (3), and quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896 (4). These studies stablished long ago that water vapor and CO2 are indeed the principal errestrial GHGs. Now, further consideration shows that CO2 is the one hat controls climate change. CO2 is a well-mixed gas that does not condense or precipitate from the tmosphere. Water vapor and clouds, on the other hand, are highly ctive components of the climate system that respond rapidly to changes n temperature and air pressure by evaporating, condensing, and recipitating. This identifies water vapor and clouds as the fast eedback processes in the climate system. Radiative forcing experiments assuming doubled CO2 and a 2% increase in olar irradiance (5) show that water vapor provides the strongest limate feedback of any of the atmospheric GHGs, but that it is not the ause (forcing) of global climate change. The response of the climate ystem to an applied forcing is determined to be the sum of the direct no-feedback) response to the applied forcing and the induced radiative esponse that is attributable to the feedback process contributions. he ratio of the total climate response to the no-feedback response is ommonly known as the feedback factor, which incorporates all the omplexities of the climate system feedback interactions. For the oubled CO2 and the 2% solar irradiance forcings, for which the direct o-feedback responses of the global surface temperature are 1.2¡ã and .3¡ãC, respectively, the ~4¡ãC surface warming implies respective eedback factors of 3.3 and 3.0 (5). Because the solar-thermal energy balance of Earth [at the top of the tmosphere (TOA)] is maintained by radiative processes only, and ecause all the global net advective energy transports must equal zero, t follows that the global average surface temperature must be etermined in full by the radiative fluxes arising from the patterns of emperature and absorption of radiation. This then is the basic nderlying physics that explains the close coupling that exists between OA radiative fluxes, the greenhouse effect, and the global mean urface temperature. An improved understanding of the relative importance of the different ontributors to the greenhouse effect comes from radiative flux xperiments that we performed using Goddard Institute for Space Studies GISS) ModelE (6). Figure 1 depicts the essence of these calculations, ncluding the separation of the greenhouse contributors into feedback nd forcing categories. In round numbers, water vapor accounts for about 50% of Earth¡¯s reenhouse effect, with clouds contributing 25%, CO2 20%, and the minor HGs and aerosols accounting for the remaining 5%. Because CO2, O3, 2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) do not condense and recipitate, noncondensing GHGs constitute the key 25% of the radiative orcing that supports and sustains the entire terrestrial greenhouse ffect, the remaining 75% coming as fast feedback contributions from ater vapor and clouds. We used the GISS 4¡ã ¡Á 5¡ã ModelE to calculate changes in nstantaneous LW TOA flux (annual global averages) in experiments where tmospheric constituents (including water vapor, clouds, CO2, O3, N2O, H4, CFCs, and aerosols) were added to or subtracted from an quilibrium atmosphere with a given global temperature structure, one onstituent at a time for a 1-year period. Decreases in outgoing TOA lux for each constituent relative to the empty or the full-component tmosphere define the bounds for the relative impact on the total reenhouse effect. Had the overlapping absorption been negligible, the um of the flux differences would have been equal to the LW flux quivalent of the total greenhouse effect (GF = ¦ÒTS^4 ¨C ¦ÒTE^4 = 150 /m2), where ¦Ò is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. We found the ingle-addition flux differences to be overestimated by a factor of .36, whereas in the single-subtraction cases, the sum of the TOA flux ifferences was underestimated by a factor of 0.734. By normalizing hese fractional contributions to match the full-atmosphere value of F, we obtained the fractional response contributions shown in Fig. 1. Because of overlapping absorption, the fractional attribution of the reenhouse effect is to some extent qualitative (as shown by the dashed nd dotted extremum lines in Fig. 1), even though the spectral integral s a full and accurate determination of the atmospheric greenhouse trength for the specified global temperature structure. Still, the ractional attribution is sufficiently precise to clearly differentiate he radiative flux contributions due to the noncondensable GHGs from hose arising from the fast feedback processes. This allows an mpirical determination of the climate feedback factor as the ratio of he total global flux change to the flux change that is attributable to he radiative forcing due to the noncondensing GHGs. This empirical etermination leads then to a climate feedback factor of 4, based on he noncondensing GHG forcing accounting for 25% of the outgoing flux eduction at the TOA for the full-constituent atmosphere. This implies hat Earth¡¯s climate system operates with strong positive feedback hat arises from the forcing-induced changes in the condensable species. A direct consequence of this combination of feedback by the condensable nd forcing by the noncondensable constituents of the atmospheric reenhouse is that the terrestrial greenhouse effect would collapse ere it not for the presence of these noncondensing GHGs. If the global tmospheric temperatures were to fall to as low as TS = TE, the lausius-Clapeyron relation would imply that the sustainable amount of tmospheric water vapor would become less than 10% of the current tmospheric value. This would result in (radiative) forcing reduced by 30 W/m2, causing much of the remaining water vapor to precipitate, hus enhancing the snow/ice albedo to further diminish the absorbed olar radiation. Such a condition would inevitably lead to runaway laciation, producing an ice ball Earth. Claims that removing all CO2 from the atmosphere ¡°would lead to a 1¡ãC ecrease in global warming¡± (7), or ¡°by 3.53¡ãC when 40% cloud cover s assumed¡± [8] are still being heard. A clear demonstration is needed o show that water vapor and clouds do indeed behave as fast feedback rocesses and that their atmospheric distributions are regulated by the ustained radiative forcing due to the noncondensing GHGs. To this end, e performed a simple climate experiment with the GISS 2¡ã ¡Á 2.5¡ã AR5 ersion of ModelE, using the Q-flux ocean with a mixed-layer depth of 50 m, zeroing out all the noncondensing GHGs and aerosols. The results, summarized in Fig. 2, show unequivocally that the adiative forcing by noncondensing GHGs is essential to sustain the tmospheric temperatures that are needed for significant levels of ater vapor and cloud feedback. Without this noncondensable GHG orcing, the physics of this model send the climate of Earth plunging apidly and irrevocably to an icebound state, though perhaps not to otal ocean freezeover. The scope of the climate impact becomes apparent in just 10 years. uring the first year alone, global mean surface temperature falls by .6¡ãC. After 50 years, the global temperature stands at ¨C21¡ãC, a ecrease of 34.8¡ãC. Atmospheric water vapor is at ~10% of the control limate value (22.6 to 2.2 mm). Global cloud cover increases from its 8% control value to more than 75%, and the global sea ice fraction oes from 4.6% to 46.7%, causing the planetary albedo of Earth to also ncrease from ~29% to 41.8%. This has the effect of reducing the bsorbed solar energy to further exacerbate the global cooling. After 50 years, a third of the ocean surface still remains ice-free, ven though the global surface temperature is colder than ¨C21¡ãC. At ropical latitudes, incident solar radiation is sufficient to keep the cean from freezing. Although this thermal oasis within an otherwise cebound Earth appears to be stable, further calculations with an nteractive ocean would be needed to verify the potential for long-term tability. The surface temperatures in Fig. 3 are only marginally armer than 1¡ãC within the remaining low-latitude heat island. From the foregoing, it is clear that CO2 is the key atmospheric gas hat exerts principal control over the strength of the terrestrial reenhouse effect. Water vapor and clouds are fast-acting feedback ffects, and as such are controlled by the radiative forcings supplied y the noncondensing GHGs. There is telling evidence that atmospheric O2 also governs the temperature of Earth on geological time scales, uggesting the related question of what the geological processes that ontrol atmospheric CO2 are. The geological evidence of glaciation at ropical latitudes from 650 to 750 million years ago supports the nowball Earth hypothesis (9), and by inference, that escape from the nowball Earth condition is also achievable. On million-year time scales, volcanoes are the principal source of tmospheric CO2, and rock weathering is the principal sink, with the iosphere acting as both source and sink (10). Because the CO2 sources nd sinks operate independently, the atmospheric level of CO2 can luctuate. If the atmospheric CO2 level were to fall below its critical alue, snowball Earth conditions can result. Antarctic and Greenland ice core data show atmospheric CO2 fluctuations etween 180 to 300 parts per million (ppm) over the lacial-interglacial cycles during the past 650,000 years (11). The elevant physical processes that turn the CO2 control knob on housand-year time scales between glacial and interglacial extremes are ot fully understood, but appear to involve both the biosphere and the cean chemistry, including a significant role for Milankovitch ariations of the Earth-orbital parameters. Besides CO2, methane is another potent greenhouse control knob, being mplicated in the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximummass extinction 55 illion years ago, when global warming by up to 5¡ãC (12) occurred ecause of a massive release of methane from the disintegration of eafloor clathrates (13, 14). Methane is the second most important oncondensing GHG after CO2. Of the 2.9 W/m2 of GHG radiative forcing rom 1750 to 2000, CO2 contributed 1.5 W/m2, methane 0.55 W/m2, and FCs 0.3 W/m2, with the rest coming from N2O and ozone (15). All of hese increases in noncondensing GHG forcing are attributable to human ctivity (16). Climate control knobs on the solar side of the energy balance ledger nclude the steady growth in luminosity since the beginning of the olar System (from about 70% of present luminosity, depending on the ostulated early solar mass loss), as hydrogen is consumed in nuclear eactions in the solar interior (17, 18). Milankovitch variations of he Earth-orbital parameters, which alter the relative seasonal istribution as well as the intensity of incident solar radiation ithin the polar regions, are another important solar energy control nob that is intimately associated with glacial-interglacial cycles of limate change. For solar irradiance changes over the past several enturies, an increase by about 0.1 W/m2 is inferred since the time of he Maunder minimum, based on trends in sunspot activity and other roxies (19). Of the climate control knobs relevant to current climate, those on the olar side of the energy balance ledger show only negligible impact. everal decades of solar irradiance monitoring have not detected any ong-term trends in solar irradiance beyond the 11-year oscillation ssociated with the solar sunspot cycle. Large volcanic eruptions can appen at any time, but no substantial eruptions have occurred since he eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991. In a broader perspective, CO2 greenhouses also operate on Mars and enus, because both planets possess atmospheres with substantial mounts of CO2. The atmospheric greenhouse effect requires that a ubstantial fraction of the incident solar radiation must be absorbed t the ground in order to make the indirect greenhouse heating of the round surface possible. Greenhouse parameters and relative surface ressure (PS) for Mars, Earth, and Venus are summarized in Table 1. Earth is unique among terrestrial planets in having a greenhouse effect n which water vapor provides strong amplification of the heat-trapping ction of the CO2 greenhouse. Also, N2 and O2, although possessing no ubstantial absorption bands of their own, are actually important ontributors to the total greenhouse effect because of ressure-broadening of CO2 absorption lines, as well as by providing he physical structure within which the absorbing gases can interact ith the radiation field. The anthropogenic radiative forcings that fuel the growing terrestrial reenhouse effect continue unabated. The continuing high rate of tmospheric CO2 increase is particularly worrisome, because the present O2 level of 390 ppm is far in excess of the 280 ppm that is more ypical for the interglacial maximum, and still the atmospheric CO2 ontrol knob is now being turned faster than at any time in the eological record (20). The concern is that we are well past even the 00- to 350-ppm target level for atmospheric CO2, beyond which angerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system would exceed he 25% risk tolerance for impending degradation of land and ocean cosystems, sea-level rise, and inevitable disruption of socioeconomic nd food-producing infrastructure (21, 22). Furthermore, the tmospheric residence time of CO2 is exceedingly long, being measured n thousands of years (23). This makes the reduction and control of tmospheric CO2 a serious and pressing issue, worthy of real-time ttention. Citeren Roger Clough <[email protected]>: > On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter Up to the present day, studies of global warming were based on CO2 levels in the atmosphere, assumed to be caused by automobiles (the supposed greenhouse effect). But more resent studies show that total solar irradiation (TSI) -- solar radiation coming from outside of the atmosphere- not CO2 levels-- is the driving force: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/06/soon-and-briggs-global-warming-fanatics-take-note-sunspots-do-impact-climate/ C02 levels are not reliable indicators of what causes surface temperature warming (the supposed greenhouse effect) ? . Why ? Because some of the CO2 in the atmosphere is there because as the earth warms, the oceans warm and CO2 gases sare less soluble in warmer water, so fizle out into the atmosphere. So it is doubtful to say that current levels of CO2 are entirely from automobiles. So current scientific evalutations as in the graph below do not rely on CO2 measurements, they use solar radiation which is not influenced by C02 levels and relate that instead to surface gtemperatures. The total solar radiation (TSI) is not obtained from measurements made on earth, so it isn't supposed to include greenshouse gas effects. It is measured these days by satellite, but is reconconstructed from pre-satellite days (<1979 ) based on a model based on the number of sunspots. http://www.aanda.org/index.php?option=com_article&access=standard&Itemid=129&url=/articles/aa/abs/2007/19/aa6725-06/aa6725-06.html "Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux N. A. Krivova, L. Balmaceda, and S. K. Solanki Max-Planck-Institut f? Sonnensystemforschung, Max-Planck-Str. 2, 37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany e-mail: [email protected] (Received 9 November 2006 / Accepted 23 February 2007) Abstract Context.Total solar irradiance changes by about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this quantity are only available since 1978 and do not provide information on longer-term secular trends. Aims.In order to reliably evaluate the Sun's role in recent global climate change, longer time series are, however, needed. They can only be assessed with the help of suitable models. Methods.The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. Results.Our model successfully reproduces three independent data sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-index. The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum of $1.3^{\rm +0.2}_{\rm -0.4}$ Wm-2. " Dr. Roger Clough NIST (ret.) 3/30/2013 "Coincidences are God's way of remaining anonymous." - Albert Einstein ____________________________________________________________________ Dr. Roger Clough NIST (ret.) 6/15/2013 See my Leibniz site at http://team.academia.edu/RogerClough ____________________________________________________________________ DreamMail - The first mail software supporting source tracking www.dreammail.org -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. 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