On 16 Jun 2013, at 15:08, [email protected] wrote:
I think Dyson is correct. My resentment is from the suspcion that it
has been a generated 'rush to judgement.
OK. I can understand. But, locally, we have only one planet here-and-
now, so it is a (rare) case where the precaution principle applies, I
think.
Well before anyone get alarmed by the harm we can do to the planet and
ourselves, Henry Ford asked why to build car in steel using the non
renewable resources for the fuel, when we can do cars entirely with
renewable plants (and he proved it, including the rentability).
So we have plenty of ways to better manage life on this planet,
including possible international taxation to offer a living to those
exploiting forest, so as to preserve the maximal pool of genes on the
planet.
We can do it, so why don't we do it?
Probably because we failed to separate the state from private
interests and corporatism.
Maybe people should vote for political programs *only*, then
politicians should be man and woman doing a "social service", and
would govern following the idea the people voted for, no matter what
they have voted themselves.
Something like that.
But that's for the long run. Today, I don't believe the politics will
improve as long as we maintain the criminal prohibition hoax, which
makes the whole middle class into hostage of bandits.
Bruno
-----Original Message-----
From: Jason Resch <[email protected]>
To: Everything List <[email protected]>
Sent: Sat, Jun 15, 2013 6:24 pm
Subject: Re: On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter
Coincidentally I came across this wikipage of Freeman Dyson quotes
today:
My first heresy says that all the fuss about global warming is
grossly exaggerated. Here I am opposing the holy brotherhood of
climate model experts and the crowd of deluded citizens who believe
the numbers predicted by the computer models. Of course, they say, I
have no degree in meteorology and I am therefore not qualified to
speak. But I have studied the climate models and I know what they
can do. The models solve the equations of fluid dynamics, and they
do a very good job of describing the fluid motions of the atmosphere
and the oceans. They do a very poor job of describing the clouds,
the dust, the chemistry and the biology of fields and farms and
forests. They do not begin to describe the real world that we live
in. The real world is muddy and messy and full of things that we do
not yet understand. It is much easier for a scientist to sit in an
air-conditioned building and run computer models, than to put on
winter clothes and measure what is really happening outside in the
swamps and the clouds. That is why the climate model experts end up
believing their own models.
"Heretical Thoughts about Science and Society", in Edge (8 August
2007)
I believe global warming is grossly exaggerated as a problem. It's a
real problem, but it's nothing like as serious as people are led to
believe. The idea that global warming is the most important problem
facing the world is total nonsense and is doing a lot of harm. It
distracts people's attention from much more serious problems.
Interview in Salon (29 September 2007)
All the books that I have seen about the science and the economics
of global warming, including the two books under review, miss the
main point. The main point is religious rather than scientific.
There is a worldwide secular religion which we may call
environmentalism, holding that we are stewards of the earth, that
despoiling the planet with waste products of our luxurious living is
a sin, and that the path of righteousness is to live as frugally as
possible. ... Environmentalism has replaced socialism as the leading
secular religion.
The New York Review of Books (12 June 2008)
What do others think about his comments? Are his critiques valid?
Jason
On Sat, Jun 15, 2013 at 5:15 PM, <[email protected]> wrote:
Bret, there was a study from the University of Waterloo which holds,
not CO2 but CFC's as the primary villain in AGW. Before this both
methane and carbon dust, have been identified as well as your old
buddy, CO2. The abatement in global heating may also be coming from
the world switching over to natural gas (mee thane as the UK says
it) for electrical generation. Sadly, the abandonment by Germany and
Italy since Fukushima 2011, have cause these nukes to be shut down,
and their re-started of old coal plants, using US coal. On the CFC
evidence, this sort of goes along with the retirement of CFC's from
use as a refrigerant in the 1990's, worldwide. The US move to shale
gas must be accelerating the cooling of the atmosphere too.
-----Original Message-----
From: meekerdb <[email protected]>
To: everything-list <[email protected]>
Sent: Sat, Jun 15, 2013 1:52 pm
Subject: Re: On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter
Whenever someone posts an article from a denialist blog like
whatsupwiththat which quotes a newspaper opinion piece which
purports to quote a scientific paper - instead of directly citing
the scientific paper; you know they're trying to pull the wool over
your eyes. The graph below,
<mime-attachment.jpeg>
which is labelled "Source: University of California-Berkley Earth
Surface Temperature Project" is not from that project. The people
running that project know better than to try to cherry pick some
variable like "Daylight high temperature in the U.S." to try fit
solar radiation. The whole point of that project was use the most
comprehensive possible statistics to estimate the global
temperature. And in spite of the fact that the lead researchers
were both sceptical of the IPCC's estimates. And although they do
not include the graph below, they do include this one:
<agfchgje.png>
In which a prediction of Earth global average surface temperature
based just on CO2 and volcanic activity (and no variation in solar
activity) is compared to measured values. Any comparison to solar
irradiance is difficult in any case since prior to satellites we
have no reliable data that is not confounded by atmospheric
effects. In fact there is no apparent increase in solar irradiance
<ejjgaacb.png>
Brent
On 6/15/2013 6:11 AM, Roger Clough wrote:
On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter
Up to the present day, studies of global warming were
based on CO2 levels in the atmosphere, assumed to be caused by
automobiles (the supposed greenhouse effect).
But more resent studies show that total solar irradiation (TSI) --
solar radiation coming from outside of the atmosphere- not CO2
levels--
is the driving force:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/06/soon-and-briggs-global-warming-fanatics-take-note-sunspots-do-impact-climate/
<mime-attachment.jpeg>
C02 levels are not reliable indicators of what causes surface
temperature warming (the supposed greenhouse effect) ?
.
Why ? Because some of the CO2 in the atmosphere is there because as
the earth warms, the
oceans warm and CO2 gases sare less soluble in warmer water, so
fizle out
into the atmosphere. So it is doubtful to say that current levels
of CO2
are entirely from automobiles.
So current scientific evalutations as in the graph below do not
rely on CO2
measurements, they use solar radiation which is not influenced by
C02 levels
and relate that instead to surface gtemperatures.
The total solar radiation (TSI) is not obtained from measurements
made on earth, so
it isn't supposed to include greenshouse gas effects. It is
measured these days by satellite,
but is reconconstructed from pre-satellite days (<1979 ) based on a
model
based on the number of sunspots.
http://www.aanda.org/index.php?option=com_article&access=standard&Itemid=129&url=/articles/aa/abs/2007/19/aa6725-06/aa6725-06.html
"Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the
surface magnetic flux
N. A. Krivova, L. Balmaceda, and S. K. Solanki
Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung, Max-Planck-Str. 2,
37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany
e-mail: [email protected]
(Received 9 November 2006 / Accepted 23 February 2007)
Abstract
Context.Total solar irradiance changes by about 0.1% between solar
activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this
quantity are only available since 1978 and do not provide
information on longer-term secular trends.
Aims.In order to reliably evaluate the Sun's role in recent global
climate change, longer time series are, however, needed. They can
only be assessed with the help of suitable models.
Methods.The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of
the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the
surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is
calculated from the historical record of the sunspot number using a
simple but consistent physical model.
Results.Our model successfully reproduces three independent data
sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978,
total photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic
flux since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-
index. The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance
since the Maunder minimum of $1.3^{\rm +0.2}_{\rm -0.4}$ Wm-2. "
Dr. Roger Clough NIST (ret.) 3/30/2013
"Coincidences are God's way of remaining anonymous."
- Albert Einstein
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