# Re: On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter

Can we stop talking about religion?


2013/6/18 Alberto G. Corona <agocor...@gmail.com>

> "Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single
> most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth¡¯s atmosphere"
>
> First phrase, first lie. The single most important climate-relevant blah
> blah blah is water vapour,  not CO2 by a great margin. It makes about 90%
> of the global warming effect.
>
> I mean that this is a lie because they supposedly are scientists and they
> must know it.
>
> Anyway, this is bad news for those that, like me, receive  Exxon checks,
> we need more antropogenic alarmists  ;))))
>
> This list is becoming truly about  everything.
>
>
> 2013/6/15 <spudboy...@aol.com>
>
> It's amazing how much damage the Anthropogenic CO2 can do to the Solar
>> Photosphere. ;-)
>>
>>
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: smitra <smi...@zonnet.nl>
>> Sent: Sat, Jun 15, 2013 10:43 am
>> Subject: Re: On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter
>>
>> Not assumed to be caused, but known to be caused. The science is clear,
>> it's only that the vast majority of the population is science
>> illiterate to the point that many people with university degrees in
>> economics, engineering etc. don't know much about physics and are
>> susceptible to the same nonsense as most lay persons.
>> http://www.sciencemag.org/content/330/6002/356.full
>>
>> ABSTRACT
>>
>> Ample physical evidence shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) is the single
>> most important climate-relevant greenhouse gas in Earth¡¯s atmosphere.
>> This is because CO2, like ozone, N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons,
>> does not condense and precipitate from the atmosphere at current
>> climate temperatures, whereas water vapor can and does. Noncondensing
>> greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial
>> greenhouse effect, thus serve to provide the stable temperature
>> structure that sustains the current levels of atmospheric water vapor
>> and clouds via feedback processes that account for the remaining 75% of
>> the greenhouse effect. Without the radiative forcing supplied by CO2
>> and the other noncondensing greenhouse gases, the terrestrial
>> greenhouse would collapse, plunging the global climate into an icebound
>> Earth state.
>>
>> It often is stated that water vapor is the chief greenhouse gas (GHG)
>> in the atmosphere. For example, it has been asserted that ¡°about 98%
>> of the natural greenhouse effect is due to water vapour and stratiform
>> clouds with CO2 contributing less than 2%¡± (1). If true, this would
>> imply that changes in atmospheric CO2 are not important influences on
>> the natural greenhouse capacity of Earth, and that the continuing
>> increase in CO2 due to human activity is therefore not relevant to
>> climate change. This misunderstanding is resolved through simple
>> examination of the terrestrial greenhouse.
>>
>> The difference between the nominal global mean surface temperature (TS
>> = 288 K) and the global mean effective temperature (TE = 255 K) is a
>> common measure of the terrestrial greenhouse effect (GT = TS ¨C TE = 33
>> K). Assuming global energy balance, TE is also the Planck radiation
>> equivalent of the 240 W/m2 of global mean solar radiation absorbed by
>> Earth.
>>
>> The Sun is the source of energy that heats Earth. Besides direct solar
>> heating of the ground, there is also indirect longwave (LW) warming
>> arising from the thermal radiation that is emitted by the ground, then
>> absorbed locally within the atmosphere, from which it is re-emitted in
>> both upward and downward directions, further heating the ground and
>> interaction is the greenhouse effect, which was first discovered by
>> Joseph Fourier in 1824 (2), experimentally verified by John Tyndall in
>> 1863 (3), and quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896 (4). These studies
>> established long ago that water vapor and CO2 are indeed the principal
>> terrestrial GHGs. Now, further consideration shows that CO2 is the one
>> that controls climate change.
>>
>> CO2 is a well-mixed gas that does not condense or precipitate from the
>> atmosphere. Water vapor and clouds, on the other hand, are highly
>> active components of the climate system that respond rapidly to changes
>> in temperature and air pressure by evaporating, condensing, and
>> precipitating. This identifies water vapor and clouds as the fast
>> feedback processes in the climate system.
>>
>> Radiative forcing experiments assuming doubled CO2 and a 2% increase in
>> solar irradiance (5) show that water vapor provides the strongest
>> climate feedback of any of the atmospheric GHGs, but that it is not the
>> cause (forcing) of global climate change. The response of the climate
>> system to an applied forcing is determined to be the sum of the direct
>> (no-feedback) response to the applied forcing and the induced radiative
>> response that is attributable to the feedback process contributions.
>> The ratio of the total climate response to the no-feedback response is
>> commonly known as the feedback factor, which incorporates all the
>> complexities of the climate system feedback interactions. For the
>> doubled CO2 and the 2% solar irradiance forcings, for which the direct
>> no-feedback responses of the global surface temperature are 1.2¡ã and
>> 1.3¡ãC, respectively, the ~4¡ãC surface warming implies respective
>> feedback factors of 3.3 and 3.0 (5).
>>
>> Because the solar-thermal energy balance of Earth [at the top of the
>> atmosphere (TOA)] is maintained by radiative processes only, and
>> because all the global net advective energy transports must equal zero,
>> it follows that the global average surface temperature must be
>> determined in full by the radiative fluxes arising from the patterns of
>> temperature and absorption of radiation. This then is the basic
>> underlying physics that explains the close coupling that exists between
>> TOA radiative fluxes, the greenhouse effect, and the global mean
>> surface temperature.
>>
>> An improved understanding of the relative importance of the different
>> contributors to the greenhouse effect comes from radiative flux
>> experiments that we performed using Goddard Institute for Space Studies
>> (GISS) ModelE (6). Figure 1 depicts the essence of these calculations,
>> including the separation of the greenhouse contributors into feedback
>> and forcing categories.
>>
>> In round numbers, water vapor accounts for about 50% of Earth¡¯s
>> greenhouse effect, with clouds contributing 25%, CO2 20%, and the minor
>> GHGs and aerosols accounting for the remaining 5%. Because CO2, O3,
>> N2O, CH4, and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) do not condense and
>> precipitate, noncondensing GHGs constitute the key 25% of the radiative
>> forcing that supports and sustains the entire terrestrial greenhouse
>> effect, the remaining 75% coming as fast feedback contributions from
>> water vapor and clouds.
>>
>> We used the GISS 4¡ã ¡Á 5¡ã ModelE to calculate changes in
>> instantaneous LW TOA flux (annual global averages) in experiments where
>> atmospheric constituents (including water vapor, clouds, CO2, O3, N2O,
>> CH4, CFCs, and aerosols) were added to or subtracted from an
>> equilibrium atmosphere with a given global temperature structure, one
>> constituent at a time for a 1-year period. Decreases in outgoing TOA
>> flux for each constituent relative to the empty or the full-component
>> atmosphere define the bounds for the relative impact on the total
>> greenhouse effect. Had the overlapping absorption been negligible, the
>> sum of the flux differences would have been equal to the LW flux
>> equivalent of the total greenhouse effect (GF = ¦ÒTS^4 ¨C ¦ÒTE^4 = 150
>> W/m2), where ¦Ò is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant. We found the
>> single-addition flux differences to be overestimated by a factor of
>> 1.36, whereas in the single-subtraction cases, the sum of the TOA flux
>> differences was underestimated by a factor of 0.734. By normalizing
>> these fractional contributions to match the full-atmosphere value of
>> GF, we obtained the fractional response contributions shown in Fig. 1.
>>
>> Because of overlapping absorption, the fractional attribution of the
>> greenhouse effect is to some extent qualitative (as shown by the dashed
>> and dotted extremum lines in Fig. 1), even though the spectral integral
>> is a full and accurate determination of the atmospheric greenhouse
>> strength for the specified global temperature structure. Still, the
>> fractional attribution is sufficiently precise to clearly differentiate
>> the radiative flux contributions due to the noncondensable GHGs from
>> those arising from the fast feedback processes. This allows an
>> empirical determination of the climate feedback factor as the ratio of
>> the total global flux change to the flux change that is attributable to
>> the radiative forcing due to the noncondensing GHGs. This empirical
>> determination leads then to a climate feedback factor of 4, based on
>> the noncondensing GHG forcing accounting for 25% of the outgoing flux
>> reduction at the TOA for the full-constituent atmosphere. This implies
>> that Earth¡¯s climate system operates with strong positive feedback
>> that arises from the forcing-induced changes in the condensable species.
>>
>> A direct consequence of this combination of feedback by the condensable
>> and forcing by the noncondensable constituents of the atmospheric
>> greenhouse is that the terrestrial greenhouse effect would collapse
>> were it not for the presence of these noncondensing GHGs. If the global
>> atmospheric temperatures were to fall to as low as TS = TE, the
>> Clausius-Clapeyron relation would imply that the sustainable amount of
>> atmospheric water vapor would become less than 10% of the current
>> atmospheric value. This would result in (radiative) forcing reduced by
>> ~30 W/m2, causing much of the remaining water vapor to precipitate,
>> thus enhancing the snow/ice albedo to further diminish the absorbed
>> glaciation, producing an ice ball Earth.
>>
>> Claims that removing all CO2 from the atmosphere ¡°would lead to a 1¡ãC
>> decrease in global warming¡± (7), or ¡°by 3.53¡ãC when 40% cloud cover
>> is assumed¡± [8] are still being heard. A clear demonstration is needed
>> to show that water vapor and clouds do indeed behave as fast feedback
>> processes and that their atmospheric distributions are regulated by the
>> sustained radiative forcing due to the noncondensing GHGs. To this end,
>> we performed a simple climate experiment with the GISS 2¡ã ¡Á 2.5¡ã AR5
>> version of ModelE, using the Q-flux ocean with a mixed-layer depth of
>> 250 m, zeroing out all the noncondensing GHGs and aerosols.
>>
>> The results, summarized in Fig. 2, show unequivocally that the
>> radiative forcing by noncondensing GHGs is essential to sustain the
>> atmospheric temperatures that are needed for significant levels of
>> water vapor and cloud feedback. Without this noncondensable GHG
>> forcing, the physics of this model send the climate of Earth plunging
>> rapidly and irrevocably to an icebound state, though perhaps not to
>> total ocean freezeover.
>>
>> The scope of the climate impact becomes apparent in just 10 years.
>> During the first year alone, global mean surface temperature falls by
>> 4.6¡ãC. After 50 years, the global temperature stands at ¨C21¡ãC, a
>> decrease of 34.8¡ãC. Atmospheric water vapor is at ~10% of the control
>> climate value (22.6 to 2.2 mm). Global cloud cover increases from its
>> 58% control value to more than 75%, and the global sea ice fraction
>> goes from 4.6% to 46.7%, causing the planetary albedo of Earth to also
>> increase from ~29% to 41.8%. This has the effect of reducing the
>> absorbed solar energy to further exacerbate the global cooling.
>>
>> After 50 years, a third of the ocean surface still remains ice-free,
>> even though the global surface temperature is colder than ¨C21¡ãC. At
>> tropical latitudes, incident solar radiation is sufficient to keep the
>> ocean from freezing. Although this thermal oasis within an otherwise
>> icebound Earth appears to be stable, further calculations with an
>> interactive ocean would be needed to verify the potential for long-term
>> stability. The surface temperatures in Fig. 3 are only marginally
>> warmer than 1¡ãC within the remaining low-latitude heat island.
>>
>>  From the foregoing, it is clear that CO2 is the key atmospheric gas
>> that exerts principal control over the strength of the terrestrial
>> greenhouse effect. Water vapor and clouds are fast-acting feedback
>> effects, and as such are controlled by the radiative forcings supplied
>> by the noncondensing GHGs. There is telling evidence that atmospheric
>> CO2 also governs the temperature of Earth on geological time scales,
>> suggesting the related question of what the geological processes that
>> control atmospheric CO2 are. The geological evidence of glaciation at
>> tropical latitudes from 650 to 750 million years ago supports the
>> snowball Earth hypothesis (9), and by inference, that escape from the
>> snowball Earth condition is also achievable.
>>
>> On million-year time scales, volcanoes are the principal source of
>> atmospheric CO2, and rock weathering is the principal sink, with the
>> biosphere acting as both source and sink (10). Because the CO2 sources
>> and sinks operate independently, the atmospheric level of CO2 can
>> fluctuate. If the atmospheric CO2 level were to fall below its critical
>> value, snowball Earth conditions can result.
>>
>> Antarctic and Greenland ice core data show atmospheric CO2 fluctuations
>> between 180 to 300 parts per million (ppm) over the
>> glacial-interglacial cycles during the past 650,000 years (11). The
>> relevant physical processes that turn the CO2 control knob on
>> thousand-year time scales between glacial and interglacial extremes are
>> not fully understood, but appear to involve both the biosphere and the
>> ocean chemistry, including a significant role for Milankovitch
>> variations of the Earth-orbital parameters.
>>
>> Besides CO2, methane is another potent greenhouse control knob, being
>> implicated in the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximummass extinction 55
>> million years ago, when global warming by up to 5¡ãC (12) occurred
>> because of a massive release of methane from the disintegration of
>> seafloor clathrates (13, 14). Methane is the second most important
>> noncondensing GHG after CO2. Of the 2.9 W/m2 of GHG radiative forcing
>> from 1750 to 2000, CO2 contributed 1.5 W/m2, methane 0.55 W/m2, and
>> CFCs 0.3 W/m2, with the rest coming from N2O and ozone (15). All of
>> these increases in noncondensing GHG forcing are attributable to human
>> activity (16).
>>
>> Climate control knobs on the solar side of the energy balance ledger
>> include the steady growth in luminosity since the beginning of the
>> Solar System (from about 70% of present luminosity, depending on the
>> postulated early solar mass loss), as hydrogen is consumed in nuclear
>> reactions in the solar interior (17, 18). Milankovitch variations of
>> the Earth-orbital parameters, which alter the relative seasonal
>> distribution as well as the intensity of incident solar radiation
>> within the polar regions, are another important solar energy control
>> knob that is intimately associated with glacial-interglacial cycles of
>> climate change. For solar irradiance changes over the past several
>> centuries, an increase by about 0.1 W/m2 is inferred since the time of
>> the Maunder minimum, based on trends in sunspot activity and other
>> proxies (19).
>>
>> Of the climate control knobs relevant to current climate, those on the
>> solar side of the energy balance ledger show only negligible impact.
>> long-term trends in solar irradiance beyond the 11-year oscillation
>> associated with the solar sunspot cycle. Large volcanic eruptions can
>> happen at any time, but no substantial eruptions have occurred since
>> the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991.
>>
>> In a broader perspective, CO2 greenhouses also operate on Mars and
>> Venus, because both planets possess atmospheres with substantial
>> amounts of CO2. The atmospheric greenhouse effect requires that a
>> substantial fraction of the incident solar radiation must be absorbed
>> at the ground in order to make the indirect greenhouse heating of the
>> ground surface possible. Greenhouse parameters and relative surface
>> pressure (PS) for Mars, Earth, and Venus are summarized in Table 1.
>>
>> Earth is unique among terrestrial planets in having a greenhouse effect
>> in which water vapor provides strong amplification of the heat-trapping
>> action of the CO2 greenhouse. Also, N2 and O2, although possessing no
>> substantial absorption bands of their own, are actually important
>> contributors to the total greenhouse effect because of
>> pressure-broadening of CO2 absorption lines, as well as by providing
>> the physical structure within which the absorbing gases can interact
>>
>> The anthropogenic radiative forcings that fuel the growing terrestrial
>> greenhouse effect continue unabated. The continuing high rate of
>> atmospheric CO2 increase is particularly worrisome, because the present
>> CO2 level of 390 ppm is far in excess of the 280 ppm that is more
>> typical for the interglacial maximum, and still the atmospheric CO2
>> control knob is now being turned faster than at any time in the
>> geological record (20). The concern is that we are well past even the
>> 300- to 350-ppm target level for atmospheric CO2, beyond which
>> dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system would exceed
>> the 25% risk tolerance for impending degradation of land and ocean
>> ecosystems, sea-level rise, and inevitable disruption of socioeconomic
>> and food-producing infrastructure (21, 22). Furthermore, the
>> atmospheric residence time of CO2 is exceedingly long, being measured
>> in thousands of years (23). This makes the reduction and control of
>> atmospheric CO2 a serious and pressing issue, worthy of real-time
>> attention.
>>
>>
>>
>> Citeren Roger Clough <rclo...@verizon.net>:
>>
>> >
>> > On Global Warming----The sun is getting a little hotter
>> >
>> > Up to the present day, studies of global warming were
>> > based on CO2 levels in the atmosphere, assumed to be caused by
>> > automobiles (the supposed greenhouse effect).
>> > But more resent studies show that total solar irradiation (TSI) --
>> > solar radiation coming from outside of the atmosphere-  not CO2 levels--
>> > is  the driving force:
>> >
>> > http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/09/06/soon-and-briggs-global-warming-fanatics-take-note-sunspots-do-impact-climate/
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > C02 levels are not reliable indicators of what causes surface
>> > temperature warming (the supposed greenhouse effect) ?
>> > .
>> > Why ? Because some of the CO2 in the atmosphere is there because as
>> > the earth warms, the
>> > oceans warm and CO2 gases sare less soluble in warmer water, so fizle out
>> > into the atmosphere. So it is doubtful to say that current levels of CO2
>> > are entirely from automobiles.
>> >
>> > So current scientific evalutations as in the graph below do not rely on CO2
>> > measurements, they use solar radiation which is not influenced by C02
>> > levels
>> > and relate that instead to surface gtemperatures.
>> >
>> > The total solar radiation (TSI) is not obtained from measurements
>> > made on earth, so
>> > it isn't supposed to include greenshouse gas effects. It is measured
>> > these days by satellite,
>> > but is reconconstructed from pre-satellite days (<1979 ) based on a model
>> > based on the number of sunspots.
>> >
>> > http://www.aanda.org/index.php?option=com_article&access=standard&Itemid=129&url=/articles/aa/abs/2007/19/aa6725-06/aa6725-06.html
>> >
>> > "Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface
>> > magnetic flux
>> > N. A. Krivova, L. Balmaceda, and S. K. Solanki
>> >
>> > Max-Planck-Institut f? Sonnensystemforschung, Max-Planck-Str. 2,
>> > 37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany
>> >    e-mail: nata...@mps.mpg.de
>> >
>> > (Received 9 November 2006 / Accepted 23 February 2007)
>> >
>> > Abstract
>> > activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this quantity
>> > are only available since 1978 and do not provide information on
>> > longer-term secular trends.
>> > Aims.In order to reliably evaluate the Sun's role in recent global
>> > climate change, longer time series are, however, needed. They can
>> > only be assessed with the help of suitable models.
>> > Methods.The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of
>> > the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the surface
>> > distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated
>> > from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but
>> > consistent physical model.
>> > Results.Our model successfully reproduces three independent data
>> > sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total
>> > photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux
>> > since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-index.
>> > The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since
>> > the Maunder minimum of $1.3^{\rm +0.2}_{\rm -0.4}$ Wm-2. "
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Dr. Roger Clough NIST (ret.) 3/30/2013
>> > "Coincidences are God's way of remaining anonymous."
>> > - Albert Einstein
>> > ____________________________________________________________________
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Dr. Roger Clough NIST (ret.) 6/15/2013
>> > See my Leibniz site at
>> >
>> > ____________________________________________________________________
>> > DreamMail - The first mail software supporting source tracking
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>
>
> --
> Alberto.
>

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Alberto.

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