On Fri, Oct 24, 2014 at 10:35:36AM -0700, meekerdb wrote:
> 
> So are you simply assuming there is a "winner", i.e. that the
> relevant statistics exist in the limit?  Even if they do, it's not
> clear that they exist for our experience which is not "in the
> limit".  It seems that you are assuming something like "The
> probability of a number being even is 1/2."
> 

This was Jean Delahaye's argument. For physical probabilities (Born
rule and all that), it suffices to assume that in a situation where 1
bit of information is generated (eg the WM duplication thought
experiment), then whether that bit is 0 or 1 has equal probability (ie
relative probability of 1/2). That suffices to build a universal prior
distribution on observed worlds, and it is a relative, not absolute
measure.  This could be considered relative to a universal person,
having no memories or other characteristics other than being
conscious, if such can exist.


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