On Fri, May 17, 2019 at 7:26 PM howardmarks <[email protected]> wrote:

> Lots of people have "premonitions" and beliefs they experience telepathy


Richard Feynman has a story about that. One day when he was a undergraduate
out of the blue he suddenly had a premonition that his grandmother had
died, seconds later somebody shouted "Hey Feynman there's a phone call for
you". He walked to the phone in dread only to learn it was just another
student telling him he left his textbook in the classroom. And it turned
out grandma was fine. The moral is premonitions are common but correct
premonitions are rare, however if you ignore the many false ones and
concentrate of the very few correct ones eventually you are bound to find
some remarkable coincidences. And even a stopped clock is correct twice a
day.

It's very easy to fool yourself this way and discover what you very much
want to discover, that's why places like CERN must have at least five sigma
confidence before they can claim a discovery; that means there is only one
chance in 3.5 million that what they saw was due to chance.

John K Clark

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