On 6/7/2020 11:21 PM, Philip Thrift wrote:
On Sunday, June 7, 2020 at 10:00:46 AM UTC-5, Alan Grayson wrote:
It predicts everything, so it predicts nothing. AG
http://backreaction.blogspot.com/2020/05/predictions-are-overrated.html :
Predictions are overrated
<https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Mw6w74p3ZYk/XrA-FY5otOI/AAAAAAAAFMU/WiQ7KPBKkekS-DQDW09BgFF_-J92CfS3QCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/fortune-teller-2.jpeg>
She writes, "If I have a scientific theory, it is either a good
description of nature, or it is not." But that is just avoiding the
question, which is how do we tell a theory that is a good description
from a theory that is a bad description. Popper says making wrong
predicitons means the theory is bad. He didn't say making correct
predictions make a theory good...although Hossenfelder's made-up counter
examples pretend that he did.
Obviously there are other criteria for a good theory: Consilience with
other good theories. Broad scope of application. Precise and
unambiguous predictions. Clarity and ease of comprehension.
Hossenfelder advocates "explanatory power" as a better critereon. I
think the preceding are what constitute explantory power in the
scientific sense. Without that qualification things like "God did it"
or "It's all simulated inside arithmetic" have perfect explanatory power.
Brent
anyway.
@philipthrift
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