Hello Everything. I have a proposal for a common-sense justification of the
Born Rule for QM. The idea was motivated with the Many-World
Interpretations in mind, but it also works for QM-with-collapse, if that is
ever found to be true.

It would be great if you respond with any comment, objection, contribution,
or question. Or you can direct me to another discussion forum.

My current draft of the Introduction is at the following link (to save
"bandwidth"):
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CE_qkit5PnS-rzKKmlOoDReBJVN1T0kA/view?usp=sharing

To give you an idea, I paste here just the Abstract and the first
subsection of the Introduction.

~~~~

An argument for workability of QM leads to the Born Rule, for QM without
collapse and for QM with collapse

George Kahrimanis [, ...]
6 April 2022, incomplete work

ABSTRACT
Any interpretation of QM without collapse (a.k.a. a MWI) crucially needs to
produce (not assume) an Everettian analogue of the Born Rule, indispensable
not only in practical decisions but also for testing a theory. Related
proposals have been controversial. The proposal introduced here is based on
an argument for workability of QM and on the old notion of Moral Certainty
(formulated by Jean Gerson, cited by Descartes and many others). There are
consequences for the foundations of decision theory because chance is
undefined for any single outcome, so that Maximisation of Expected Utility
is meaningless as a fundamental rational rule, therefore a different
decision theory is needed.

1- INTRODUCTION

1.1- Comparison with other derivations of the Born Rule, either in MWI or
with collapse

The present study is based on an assessment (not an assumption, strictly
speaking) regarding workability of QM (its usability and testability); that
is, an argument for workability is presented and the assessment is up to
the reader. It avoids a tacit assumption of certain derivations in MWI,
developments of the one by [Deutsch 1999], declaring the utility of a bet
as a single value, rather than a pair (corresponding to a buying value and
a selling value) or an interval -- however, an Everettian agent may well be
unwilling to admit a single value, in view of the diversity of outcomes in
branching futures. Despite this disagreement, we share an essential common
trait: we address the problem outside of pure epistemology, by studying how
QM can be a guide to practical applications. Another difference is that the
present study is based solely on the status of QM as a workable theory, but
Deutsch's derivation also introduces claims about rational behaviour (with
which I agree, except for the one mentioned above).

Other derivations not assuming collapse (for example, Zurek's), nonetheless
invoke the concept of probability in the interpretation, on the basis of
various arguments [Vaidman 2020]. In contrast, the present study adopts a
restriction: probability proper will be considered only for outcomes of a
randomising process. (It is not enough to know that a black box contains
just ten black and ten white balls, or that there are only four aces in a
deck of fifty two cards: the cards must be shuffled and the balls stirred,
with specifications tailored to the game.) In a single-world interpretation
assuming collapse, randomisation is a required assumption (albeit derided
as "God plays dice") so that we may legitimately speak of probability; in a
MWI though, randomisation makes no sense. Therefore the present study does
not invoke a ready concept of probability; it rather discovers what
quantum-mechanical quasi-probability is (and what it is not). The results
are relevant also to the interpretation of non-QM probability, regardless
if it may be ultimately based on QM.

There are derivations of the Born Rule assuming collapse with
randomisation, along with some special assumption. (The first such
derivation was Gleason's theorem, assuming "non-contextuality" of
measurements; for references, see [Vaidman 2020] and [Masanes, Galley,
Müller].) These special assumptions are deemed more plausible than assuming
the Born Rule directly, because they are qualitative properties rather than
quantitative ones; nonetheless any special assumption needs justification,
whether on experimental grounds or by some theoretic argument. The present
study shows that we can replace both randomisation and the additional
special assumption by workability. So the Born Rule is derived from
workability alone, whether we assume collapse or not.

1.2- About Moral Certainty

[...]

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