On Fri, Oct 25, 2024 at 3:24 AM Alan Grayson <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > On Tuesday, October 22, 2024 at 6:28:52 AM UTC-6 John Clark wrote: > > *Election Betting Odds says Trump has a 60% chance of winning, I hate to > say it but I think that's about right. The polls say it's dead even but in > 2020 Trump did better than the polls said he would, and in 2016 he did MUCH > better, probably because Trump fans are embarrassed to admit that they are > going to vote for Trump. I'd be embarrassed too if I was going to vote for > Trump. I think the same thing is gonna happen this time, and I sure hope > I'm wrong. * > > *Election Betting Odds* <https://electionbettingodds.com/> > > > *> Democrats are generally nervous because Kamala has, if you believe the > polls, lost ground to Trump since her initial surge. I am among the nervous > D's. However, I take some comfort in the fact that more women are > registered to vote than men, and it's hard for me to believe that they > won't strongly tend to deny POTUS status to Trump, given the abortion > issue. AG * > *About those those betting odds, I found out something new today, the odds may have been manipulated. In today's New York Times I read this: * "Mr. Trump’s apparent lead may be an illusion. The odds on Polymarket began favoring him this month after just four accounts, with user names like Fredi9999 and PrincessCaro, bet more than $30 million on a Trump victory, according to an analysis of transaction records by Chaos Labs, a crypto data provider. Polymarket said on Thursday that all four accounts were controlled by one person, whom it described as a French national with a financial services background, without revealing the person’s identity. The election betting has placed enormous scrutiny on Polymarket, a start-up based in New York that allows people to wager crypto on everything from sports to Taylor Swift’s romantic prospects. The start-up, which is backed by an investment firm of the conservative tech mogul Peter Thiel, a strong Trump supporter. The bets that bolstered Mr. Trump’s odds have raised alarms that Polymarket could be vulnerable to manipulation. The trader who placed the wagers might have been “*willing to take the losses in order to change public perceptions*,” said Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College. “*And possibly have an effect on things like donations and morale and volunteer support and turnout*.” " *John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis <https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>* dtt > > -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Everything List" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to [email protected]. To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/everything-list/CAJPayv1mpNnACdfkhibmS6GLMutFS32mMXUQ_Gb4YXEsYqnVcA%40mail.gmail.com.
