--- In [email protected], akasha_108 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In [email protected], "authfriend" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> 
> > I'm not even insisting that *this* study demonstrates
> > the Maharishi Effect, though.  It's just that I've seen
> > zillions of misconceptions about how it was done,
> 
> Which is interesting, since  no one is even clear on the details. Was
> ARMIA or regreesion used. If ARIMA was used (which I think it was) did
> they have 6 seasons of data -- a minimum for ARIMA models. What were
> the  independent variables tested? (both accepted in the model and
> those rejected). What was the actual time frame of the analysis (not
> the intervention -- we know it was 8 weeks). Mark indicated 5 year
> data was used. Some appear to suggest it was the intervention period +
> short term control buffers on the front and back end. How was the the
> heat index constructed? etc.
> 
> > accompanied by completely invalid criticisms.  If
> > somebody's going to criticize the study, they should do
> > so on the basis of how it was actually conducted, not
> > some uninformed straw-man version.
> 
> Sorry, what I am proposing is not uniformed. Nor is it a strawman. 
>  
> > Otherwise, just accept it for what it was: during an
> > eight-week period in D.C. in June and July 1993 when a
> > large World Peace Assembly was being held, there was a
> > sharp drop in the crime rate.  Maybe it was the Maharishi
> > Effect, maybe it wasn't.
> 
> I think thats what i was saying. The analysis showed an effct. An
> interesting exploratory study. There are a lot of methodological
> questions, not answered -- probably because no one has a copy of the
> study. The results are inconclusive, as you say "maybe it was the
> Maharishi Effect, maybe it wasn't."
> 
> I am not clear why you view a statement of an outline of what a
> credible research design would look like is inappropriate or creates a
> strawman.
>
********

They spent a LONG TIME massaging the data after the study. They had predicted 
25% 
reduction in crime. Their first published result was 16 or 17%, which was 
EXACTLY WHAT I 
HAD PREDICTED, IN PRINT, PRIOR TO THE COURSE.

Then they when back to the massage table, and eventually they claimed 25%. I 
knew one 
of the guys who was doing the massaging, a graduate student named Mark_____ 
(last 
name forgotten, for the moment.)

L B S






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