--- In [email protected], "markmeredith2002" 
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
> --- In [email protected], akasha_108 <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 
wrote:
> >
> > --- In [email protected], "authfriend" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> 
wrote:
> 
> > > But he hasn't seen the study.  It used highly
> > > sopisticated statistical methodology, and I don't
> > > think it's even possible to speculate about what
> > > was done on that level of sophistication.
> > 
> > Well, its not magic. Based on a survey of available data, 
> > constraints on such and all, I can speculate with some degree of 
> > reasonablness as to what issues they faced, and how they 
> > approached the problems methodologically. I have been there.
> 
> ExxonMobil scientists use highly sophisticated statistical 
> methodology to prove global warming doesn't exist, creationists use 
> it to prove evolution is a hoax.  Highly sophisticated statistical 
> methodology is useless within a bad study design.  
> 
> My real pt - you have to be skeptical of studies which (1) support
> the marketing of products made by the organization which is paying 
> the scientists to do the studies, and (2) support the particular 
> religious worldview of the scientists conducting the study.  In the 
> case of the M-effect studies, you have both at work.

I completely agree on all counts.  I was not using
"sophisticated" to mean "unassailable."  It may
even be the case that the more sophisticated the
methodology, the more opportunities to do some
sophisticated fudging that would only become evident
if you did an exhaustive examination of everything
that went into and came out of the computer.

But by the same token, the more sophisticated the
methodology, if you don't have access to all the
details, the less likely a *speculation* on what the
researchers were doing (honestly or otherwise) is to
be on target.

In other words, I don't believe akasha is in a
position even to guess at flaws in the study or to
say the results didn't reflect the reality unless he
knows *exactly* what methodology the researchers
used.  He has to be able to see the published study
before he can make a relevant evaluation.

I'm not at all sure he can come up with his own
method, run all the numbers, get different results,
and on that basis, without knowing what methodology
they were using, say there was something wrong with
their results.






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