Remember that old bone we were chewing on?

The contradiction is that according to science,
your constraints, your sense of exercising an
act of will to overcome them, and your enjoyment
of all that are all *determined*, because the
behavior of the elementary particles that make
your mind, as well as your body, function operates
via mathematically predictable statistical
probabilities; there are no "surprises."

Maybe this is the heart of our different ways of seeing it. I don't
understand how elementary particles make up my mind?
Most neuo-scientists view a separate mind body making the distinction
like Descarte, don't they? I think Wilber makes this point that these
sub atomic particles have nothing to do with conscioudness, they are
physical.  But is does clarify my own assumptions about the mind body
connections.  I follow the primacy of matter point of view. 
Consciousness emerges from the functioning of the parts.  I don't
think that matter acting strangely at sub-atomic leves changes this

Theoretically, if we could compute the billions
of bits of behavior of those gazillions of elementary
particles, we could predict precisely the chances of
your choosing to exercise versus choosing to watch
football on TV.

Yes, this is our difference.  The particles can't determine the
content of thought for me.  The emergent awareness of "I think
therefore I am" level is the beautiful mystery of life.  Our choices
are not pre-determined, but they are often predicable.  

There doesn't seem to be a whole lot of clinical
evidence, as it happens, for free will, whereas
there's quite a bit *against* it.  I was just
reading an article in the Times today about how
more and more personality traits are being traced
to genetics, for example.  And Lawson mentioned
the famous (infamous?) studies that appear to show
that if you're asked to raise your arm, say, the
motor neurons that govern the movement of the arm
muscles are activated *before* the area of the
brain in which decisions to act are made.  (I think
I have that straight; Lawson will correct me if I
don't, I'm sure!)

The quote just states free will as a given of our experience.  These
studies are fascinating.  Personally I feel that free will must be
practiced.  To act in a new original way is very difficult, but when
achieved, it is wonderful.  I am ready to take my experience of free
will as a given.  I think we will find more an more influences on us
from genetics etc, which only makes it more heroic when we do will our
lives in a new direction.  Let alone the daily choices that build our
future in one direction or other!  Nowhere is that more obvious than
in personal health.

(This is out  the sequence of your post)

Judy: It's experiencing the *free will* of the "group 'I'"
and interpreting it as its own free will.

This point of view seems to reduce what I love most about being alive
and turns it into an illusion.  If it is true, the evidence will have
to rub my nose in it.  I certainly would not jump to this conclusion
anymore than I would adopt the Matrix movie series POV by choice. 
They are both depressing to me.  I don't really understand how the
group free will can want to express itself through me getting a drink
of water.  It seems far fetched.  Since neuro science describes the
link between our mind an nervous system, it seems like we are missing
a nervous system here to support the group "I".  Is it a mind without
a body?

I was going to skip exercise today but now I will be damned if I will!
 Oh wait, that was predictable as a counter to this post, so I am
going to watch the World ..., I will put my Nordic Track in
front of the tube and do both!  That is what I usually do, what a
slave I am!

I'm pretty sure that I need to read his whole essay at this point. 
There is too much not clear in his quote.

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