--- In [email protected], off_world_beings <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > They said the same thing back in the seventies, but it never > materialized.
Precisely...and the reason they said it back in the seventies was because at the time we were at the tail end of a cooling period and everyone thought -- doom and gloom! -- that the cooling would go on forever. Now we're at the tail end of a warming cycle and the enviro-nutjobs think that's going to go on forever when, in reality, the cooling cycle has just begun. > > OffWorld > > > --- In [email protected], "shempmcgurk" > <shempmcgurk@> wrote: > > > > Read the sunspots > > > > The mud at the bottom of B.C. fjords reveals that solar output > drives > > climate change - and that we should prepare now for dangerous > global > > cooling > > > > R. TIMOTHY PATTERSON, Financial Post > > > > Published: Wednesday, June 20, 2007 > > > > Politicians and environmentalists these days convey the impression > > that climate-change research is an exceptionally dull field with > > little left to discover. We are assured by everyone from David > Suzuki > > to Al Gore to Prime Minister Stephen Harper that "the science is > > settled." At the recent G8 summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel > > even attempted to convince world leaders to play God by > restricting > > carbon-dioxide emissions to a level that would magically limit the > > rise in world temperatures to 2C. > > > > The fact that science is many years away from properly > understanding > > global climate doesn't seem to bother our leaders at all. Inviting > > testimony only from those who don't question political orthodoxy > on > > the issue, parliamentarians are charging ahead with the impossible > > and expensive goal of "stopping global climate change." Liberal MP > > Ralph Goodale's June 11 House of Commons assertion that Parliament > > should have "a real good discussion about the potential for carbon > > capture and sequestration in dealing with carbon dioxide, which > has > > tremendous potential for improving the climate, not only here in > > Canada but around the world," would be humorous were he, and even > the > > current government, not deadly serious about devoting vast > resources > > to this hopeless crusade. > > > > Climate stability has never been a feature of planet Earth. The > only > > constant about climate is change; it changes continually and, at > > times, quite rapidly. Many times in the past, temperatures were > far > > higher than today, and occasionally, temperatures were colder. As > > recently as 6,000 years ago, it was about 3C warmer than now. Ten > > thousand years ago, while the world was coming out of the thou- > sand- > > year-long "Younger Dryas" cold episode, temperatures rose as much > as > > 6C in a decade -- 100 times faster than the past century's 0.6C > > warming that has so upset environmentalists. > > > > > > View Larger Image > > (See hardcopy for Chart/Graph) > > Andrew Barr, National Post > > > > Email to a friend > > > > Printer friendly > > Font: ****Climate-change research is now literally exploding with > new > > findings. Since the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the field has had more > > research than in all previous years combined and the discoveries > are > > completely shattering the myths. For example, I and the first- > class > > scientists I work with are consistently finding excellent > > correlations between the regular fluctuations in the brightness of > > the sun and earthly climate. This is not surprising. The sun and > the > > stars are the ultimate source of all energy on the planet. > > > > My interest in the current climate-change debate was triggered in > > 1998, when I was funded by a Natural Sciences and Engineering > > Research Council strategic project grant to determine if there > were > > regular cycles in West Coast fish productivity. As a result of > wide > > swings in the populations of anchovies, herring and other > > commercially important West Coast fish stock, fisheries managers > were > > having a very difficult time establishing appropriate fishing > quotas. > > One season there would be abundant stock and broad harvesting > would > > be acceptable; the very next year the fisheries would collapse. No > > one really knew why or how to predict the future health of this > > crucially important resource. > > > > > > Although climate was suspected to play a significant role in > marine > > productivity, only since the beginning of the 20th century have > > accurate fishing and temperature records been kept in this region > of > > the northeast Pacific. We needed indicators of fish productivity > over > > thousands of years to see whether there were recurring cycles in > > populations and what phenomena may be driving the changes. > > > > My research team began to collect and analyze core samples from > the > > bottom of deep Western Canadian fjords. The regions in which we > chose > > to conduct our research, Effingham Inlet on the West Coast of > > Vancouver Island, and in 2001, sounds in the Belize-Seymour Inlet > > complex on the mainland coast of British Columbia, were perfect > for > > this sort of work. The topography of these fjords is such that > they > > contain deep basins that are subject to little water transfer from > > the open ocean and so water near the bottom is relatively stagnant > > and very low in oxygen content. As a consequence, the floors of > these > > basins are mostly lifeless and sediment layers build up year after > > year, undisturbed over millennia. > > > > Using various coring technologies, we have been able to collect > more > > than 5,000 years' worth of mud in these basins, with the oldest > > layers coming from a depth of about 11 metres below the fjord > floor. > > Clearly visible in our mud cores are annual changes that record > the > > different seasons: corresponding to the cool, rainy winter > seasons, > > we see dark layers composed mostly of dirt washed into the fjord > from > > the land; in the warm summer months we see abundant fossilized > fish > > scales and diatoms (the most common form of phytoplankton, or > single- > > celled ocean plants) that have fallen to the fjord floor from > > nutrient-rich surface waters. In years when warm summers dominated > > climate in the region, we clearly see far thicker layers of > diatoms > > and fish scales than we do in cooler years. Ours is one of the > > highest-quality climate records available anywhere today and in it > we > > see obvious confirmation that natural climate change can be > dramatic. > > For example, in the middle of a 62-year slice of the record at > about > > 4,400 years ago, there was a shift in climate in only a couple of > > seasons from warm, dry and sunny conditions to one that was mostly > > cold and rainy for several decades. > > > > Using computers to conduct what is referred to as a "time series > > analysis" on the colouration and thickness of the annual layers, > we > > have discovered repeated cycles in marine productivity in this, a > > region larger than Europe. Specifically, we find a very strong and > > consistent 11-year cycle throughout the whole record in the > sediments > > and diatom remains. This correlates closely to the well-known 11- > > year "Schwabe" sunspot cycle, during which the output of the sun > > varies by about 0.1%. Sunspots, violent storms on the surface of > the > > sun, have the effect of increasing solar output, so, by counting > the > > spots visible on the surface of our star, we have an indirect > measure > > of its varying brightness. Such records have been kept for many > > centuries and match very well with the changes in marine > productivity > > we are observing. > > > > > > In the sediment, diatom and fish-scale records, we also see longer > > period cycles, all correlating closely with other well-known > regular > > solar variations. In particular, we see marine productivity cycles > > that match well with the sun's 75-90-year "Gleissberg Cycle," the > 200- > > 500-year "Suess Cycle" and the 1,100-1,500-year "Bond Cycle." The > > strength of these cycles is seen to vary over time, fading in and > out > > over the millennia. The variation in the sun's brightness over > these > > longer cycles may be many times greater in magnitude than that > > measured over the short Schwabe cycle and so are seen to impact > > marine productivity even more significantly. > > > > Our finding of a direct correlation between variations in the > > brightness of the sun and earthly climate indicators > > (called "proxies") is not unique. Hundreds of other studies, using > > proxies from tree rings in Russia's Kola Peninsula to water levels > of > > the Nile, show exactly the same thing: The sun appears to drive > > climate change. > > > > However, there was a problem. Despite this clear and repeated > > correlation, the measured variations in incoming solar energy > were, > > on their own, not sufficient to cause the climate changes we have > > observed in our proxies. In addition, even though the sun is > brighter > > now than at any time in the past 8,000 years, the increase in > direct > > solar input is not calculated to be sufficient to cause the past > > century's modest warming on its own. There had to be an amplifier > of > > some sort for the sun to be a primary driver of climate change. > > > > Indeed, that is precisely what has been discovered. In a series of > > groundbreaking scientific papers starting in 2002, Veizer, Shaviv, > > Carslaw, and most recently Svensmark et al., have collectively > > demonstrated that as the output of the sun varies, and with it, > our > > star's protective solar wind, varying amounts of galactic cosmic > rays > > from deep space are able to enter our solar system and penetrate > the > > Earth's atmosphere. These cosmic rays enhance cloud formation > which, > > overall, has a cooling effect on the planet. When the sun's energy > > output is greater, not only does the Earth warm slightly due to > > direct solar heating, but the stronger solar wind generated during > > these "high sun" periods blocks many of the cosmic rays from > entering > > our atmosphere. Cloud cover decreases and the Earth warms still > more. > > > > The opposite occurs when the sun is less bright. More cosmic rays > are > > able to get through to Earth's atmosphere, more clouds form, and > the > > planet cools more than would otherwise be the case due to direct > > solar effects alone. This is precisely what happened from the > middle > > of the 17th century into the early 18th century, when the solar > > energy input to our atmosphere, as indicated by the number of > > sunspots, was at a minimum and the planet was stuck in the Little > Ice > > Age. These new findings suggest that changes in the output of the > sun > > caused the most recent climate change. By comparison, CO2 > variations > > show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium > and > > even short time scales. > > > > > > In some fields the science is indeed "settled." For example, plate > > tectonics, once highly controversial, is now so well-established > that > > we rarely see papers on the subject at all. But the science of > global > > climate change is still in its infancy, with many thousands of > papers > > published every year. In a 2003 poll conducted by German > > environmental researchers Dennis Bray and Hans von Storch, two- > thirds > > of more than 530 climate scientists from 27 countries surveyed did > > not believe that "the current state of scientific knowledge is > > developed well enough to allow for a reasonable assessment of the > > effects of greenhouse gases." About half of those polled stated > that > > the science of climate change was not sufficiently settled to pass > > the issue over to policymakers at all. > > > > Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting > into > > its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries, likely > > leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan > for > > adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well > beyond > > one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority > > for governments. It is global cooling, not warming, that is the > major > > climate threat to the world, especially Canada. As a country at > the > > northern limit to agriculture in the world, it would take very > little > > cooling to destroy much of our food crops, while a warming would > only > > require that we adopt farming techniques practiced to the south of > us. > > > > Meantime, we need to continue research into this, the most complex > > field of science ever tackled, and immediately halt wasted > > expenditures on the King Canute-like task of "stopping climate > > change." > > > > > > R. Timothy Patterson is professor and director of the Ottawa- > Carleton > > Geoscience Centre, Department of Earth Sciences, Carleton > University. > > >
