>> I must say I find the whole tone of this thread rather shocking on a scholarly list.
I decline to agree. Review and examination of crime measurement, especially in light of the widely diverging data from the same population, is quite beneficial and appropriate. Indeed, it is the divergence of the data which brings more focus to the core issues. >> The UK instituted gun controls, and crime fell, according to the best evidence we have. And that is the point. "Best evidence we have" seems to be a null concept when: a) There are two contradictory measurements b) There are obvious defects with the BCS c) The potential for survey biasing within BCS creates more legitimacy concerns >> Victimization data are regarded as the gold standard, counting many crimes >> the official data miss. Thank goodness we are no longer on the gold standard here ;-> Good natured kidding aside, I find this to be an arbitrary statement. In this forum alone we have seen significant and serious critique concerning the two forms of measurement, both indicating sources of under reporting. Sadly there seems to be no accurate way of measuring the underreporting without referencing the competing measurements. But this does bring up an interesting aside: If both measurement systems have the potential for underreporting, does this not mean then that crime in the UK is higher than reported? If so, and if police reports are the statistically more valid, then how much higher than the 1% increase could be the upper end of the spectrum? If we assume a 2% skew for both systems of measurement, then we are talking about a crime rate change range of -3% to +3% change in crime rates -- basically a wash. >> Rape is a different matter; since rape is badly under-reported, Given a long string of recent DNA-based prisoner releases here in the States, one might claim that rape is _over_ reported (false accusations). I suspect we need to wait a few years for the DNA proof defense to worm its way through the incarcerated rapist population before we can guess at the over-reporting rate. Does anyone have hard numbers on underreporting of rape (doubtful given the logic bomb therein)? >> it is one of the crime categories where victimization data are most valuable I find this a curious opinion. What statistical evidence do we have that certified rape victims (a case proven via DNA at a later date) who (a) failed to report the crime to police but (b) later confided in a government survey taker? I understand the argument, but know of no data to indicate the (certified) seriousness of the assumption. ----------------- Guy Smith Author, Gun Facts www.GunFacts.info [EMAIL PROTECTED] _______________________________________________ To post, send message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] To subscribe, unsubscribe, change options, or get password, see http://lists.ucla.edu/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/firearmsregprof Please note that messages sent to this large list cannot be viewed as private. Anyone can subscribe to the list and read messages that are posted; people can read the Web archives; and list members can (rightly or wrongly) forward the messages to others.
