This is a reasonably important question, as AG Holder and others are talking about the need for more restrictions on firearms purchases in the US because of the claims that most of the firearms used by the Mexican drug cartels (in Mexico) come from the US.
I've been leery, because the same claims usually talk about the fully automatic weapons, grenades and other quite strictly regulated weaponry. Then this evening I heard an NPR interview of a reporter Randal Archibold who had a news article on the front page of the New York Times - March 22: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/23/us/23border.html?scp=3&sq=archibold&st=cse He said he was told by the ATF that 90% of those guns came from the US. The article says, "Law enforcement officials on both sides of the border agree that the United States is the source for most of the guns used in the violent drug cartel war in Mexico." He didn't say anything more about how law enforcement determined this. I searched the ATF website, and found this www.usdoj.gov/dea/pubs/cngrtest/ct031709.pdf Statement of William Newell, Special Agent in Charge which discussed the topic. The ATF "has referred for prosecution 795 cases involving 1,658 defendants; those cases include 382 firearms trafficking cases involving 1,035 defendants and more than 12,800 guns." (pp 5-6) that covers 2004-9 That's not trivial (2,000+ guns/year) - and that's only the ones caught. "Project Gunrunner includes approximately 148 special agents dedicated to investigating firearms trafficking on a full-time basis and 59 industry operations investigators (IOIs) responsible for conducting regulatory inspections of federally licensed gun dealers, known as Federal Firearms Licensees (FFLs), along the Southwest border." p6 "Moreover, utilizing ATF trace data analyses, IOIs prioritize for inspection those FFLs with numerous unsuccessful traces and a large volume of firearms recoveries in the targeted high-crime areas." p6 But they don't say if these areas are in Mexico! However, "It is an undisputable fact that the weapons and firearms used to fuel the drug-related violence in Mexico can be traced back to guns procured legally or illegally here." p7 "A comprehensive analysis of firearms trace data over the past three years indicates that Texas, Arizona and California are the three largest source States, respectively, for firearms illegally trafficked to Mexico. In FY 2007 alone, Mexico submitted approximately 1,112 guns for tracing that originated in Texas, Arizona and California. The remaining 47 States accounted for 435 traces in FY 2007" p10 "Until recently drug traffickers??? ???weapon of choice??? had been .38 caliber handguns. However, they now have developed a preference for higher quality, more powerful weapons, such as .223 and 7.62x39mm caliber rifles, 5.7x28 caliber rifles and pistols, and .50 caliber rifles; each of these types of weapons has been seized by ATF in route to Mexico." p11 This seems to be more than speculation, although it doesn't give good statistics. However, it doesn't say anything about NFA weapons. -- --henry schaffer
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