Good point, Casey - it's not just software. I see shabby service and workmanship all around, an Industrial Crisis brought on by a preoccupation with short-term gain... although that in itself is amplified by modern software/communication technology. Hopefully that will all balance out and correct itself somewhat.
I see computers diverging into shrinkwrapped consumer devices (probably a dead end just like old mass media) and industrial/DIY gear for serious programming. I'd tend to write good clean code for the latter. That's possible when you're writing for programmers, gamers, anyone willing to learn something in order to use your software effectively (provided, of course, that you're not in a fragmented landscape of rapidly iterating APIs or hardware). That's my optimistic scenario. In my pessimistic scenario I do see the kids getting dumber, because they're *only* using the internet for videos, games, chit-chat. They think the technology is pretty cool, but compared to previous generations they seem less interested in understanding it. What if this revolution lasts long enough to destroy most of the books, libraries, old-school factories, etc... and then collapses? It could set us back centuries. (I wonder how many sci-fi stories have already used that set-up... a couple hundred? :) Also, let's not forget that we're still in the middle of a major economic depression, so it's pretty difficult to predict anything based on current trends. On Mon, Sep 9, 2013 at 12:12 AM, Casey Ransberger <[email protected]>wrote: > I don't think cut and paste has been the source of the problems with the > systems I've worked on (could be a symptom of one or more of the problems.) > What I see is long-term systems built around short-term, usually > competitive goals, by people who are competing both with one another (for > jobs, promotions, raises, social capital, etc,) and also cooperating with > one another to compete with other businesses at the same time. Most > people's programming habits seem to change dramatically, for example, when > they expect to throw something away. Most programmers dump the company > every 2-5 years for another (higher-paying) job, so it's *all* disposable > code in effect. It's not just the programmers either, it's the decision > makers at C-level too, who are quite often "building the company to sell > the company." > > Maybe the kids are getting dumber, but what I see when I look around is > smart kids being pushed to ship before the bits are ready, and not being > *allowed* to fix "low-value" bugs which gradually accumulate until a system > is deep-sixed for being painful to work on. In other words, I don't believe > there's a software crisis or any real shortage of programming talent (I > know plenty of great programmers who regularly go without work, often > because they're unimpressed with the offers they're seeing.) I think it's > not a software crisis, I think it's a *management* crisis. > > I do think new tools to make > managers/customers/investors/partners/users/programmers less stressed out > could make the overall experience better for all involved, and with that I > guess I'm talking about the continuing emergence of an engineering > discipline in software. > > But that's in-house code. OTOH, FreeBSD has usually been pretty stable for > me; I don't have to put out its fires very much. > > Why might this be? Let's try some fun game theory! > > http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2013/130801/ncomms3193/pdf/ncomms3193.pdf > >
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