Aren't the libbies constitutionally required to disdain funding from the government? Seems like they should disdain elections, too, hold out for victory by acclamation?
-- rec -- On Fri, Nov 4, 2016 at 2:28 PM, ┣glen┫ <[email protected]> wrote: > On 11/04/2016 09:53 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: > > http://www.slate.com/features/pkremp_forecast/report.html > > Very nice presentation. Thanks, Marcus! > > On 11/04/2016 10:46 AM, Steven A Smith wrote: > > I was going to "scoff" at this number and analysis until I checked MY > favorite source and saw what people who were putting their money where > their mouths are were saying: > > > > https://tippie.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ > > That's only 1 market. Predictwise (which I may have heard about on this > list?) aggregates some markets: > http://predictwise.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/PredictWise_November4_ > ChartPres.png > > But, were I to play the market(s), I'd bet on both Clinton and Trump, of > course, in various amounts. So, it's not clear whether these markets are > predictive of the winner so much as they're predictive of strategies for > benefiting from the winner, who[m]ever it may be. > > > Is that chasm recently formed, the FBI's "October Surprise"? There > sure is a lot of volatility! > > My hypothesis is that Clinton's drop in the polls is a result of the > late-comers digging into the subject. Anyone who has been paying attention > to Trump and Clinton for more than a month or two, will have already formed > their opinion. More emails (or more sex harassment allegations) won't > affect that. But those who only started really paying attention last month > may just now be starting to dig in and think about the extent of Clinton's > and Trump's foibles and qualities. The falsifying question would be: What > % of pollees answered prematurely back before October? ... didn't answer > "undecided", but were likely to change their minds once they started > digging? > > I'm also fond of PollyVote: https://pollyvote.com/en/ ... though I also > forget where I learned about that one. [sigh] > > > Gary and Jill only need 5% of the vote to get their party's funding and > automatic ballot inclusion next round. > > It would be great to see the Green party get the funding. I wouldn't > celebrate the Libertarians getting it, though. > > -- > ␦glen? > > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
