Can you explain why you think estimates are optimistic? Their uncertainty shading gives them quite a bit of leeway.
On 4/9/20 11:18 AM, [email protected] wrote: > Sorry, I have never been much good at this screen capture thang. Below are > fragments of two pages from the IHME website, > > > > https://covid19.healthdata.org > > > > the same website from which I sent you a bit of cheerful FAQ, last night. > You can get to any state and several countries, by clicking on the down arrow > beside the heading, United States of America. > > > > The first screen shot shows how they understand what is going on in NM, > where they say that we have no “stay at home order” implemented. And indeed, > there seems to be more “bustle” on the streets than I would have expected. > > > > The second shows their prediction of resource demand for the US generally, > which they claim will reach it’s peak in a few days. This just seems > howlingly optimistic. I suppose they are thinking that the high population > centers are peaking now, and whatever happens in the South won’t push us to a > higher peak if those blue-state numbers are falling. Still …. > > > > The FAQ seems to suggest that this will be a nightmare in the rear view > mirror as we all gather for the 4^th of July Celebration on the Mall, with > Trump soliciting adulation for his terrific response to the virus. This HAS > to be nuts. What am I missing, here? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
