I don't think you're missing anything. But the numbers can't be trusted, optimistically or pessimistically. For example, we don't know how many asymptomatic people are really presymptomatic. If 25-50% of the tested/confirmed cases are thought to be asymptomatic, and that amount translates into the general population, then the number is larger than 2m/7.5b. Or, even if those we labelled asymptomatic were presymptomatic, the 80% mild symptom number will rise above 80%.
Those of us considering never shaking hands again in our lifetime, or never leaving home again, or whatever insane extreme are _catastrophizing_. It's a sign of low tolerance for ambiguity ... which I guess is typical for dorks like us ... but we should at least recognize it in ourselves. My prescription for Nick is to turn off the internet, smoke a little weed, and start reading a big fat novel. 8^) On 4/9/20 3:34 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote: > From what I've read, it seems to me that if the only way for the virus to be > stopped is for enough people to become immune that it runs out of hosts in > which to reproduce. Immunity could develop in at least three ways: a) be > vaccinated (probably 2+ years off); b) have natural immunity (probably a low > percentage, besides who wants to risk it?); or c) be infected and recover > (thus *presumably* making them immune).The only purpose of flattening the > curve is to try to reduce mortality (and maybe even reduce the permanent > damage done to the body) by keeping the medical systems from becoming > overwhelmed. Given how few people have been infected and then either died or > recovered (fewer than 2 million infected out of 7.5 billion, i.e. 0.026%), we > could repeat this curve flattening exercise a thousand times before it would > burn itself out. > > Seems to me we have to either wait for a vaccine, or resign ourselves to the > fact that we are going to get infected. Or just stay out in the cloud forest > like I'm doing and never see anyone face to face again. Am I missing > something? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
