I suggest reading Gentleman in Moscow. Learn how to make the best of house (in this case hotel) arrest over a super long period of time.
On Thu, Apr 9, 2020 at 5:07 PM uǝlƃ ☣ <[email protected]> wrote: > I don't think you're missing anything. But the numbers can't be trusted, > optimistically or pessimistically. For example, we don't know how many > asymptomatic people are really presymptomatic. If 25-50% of the > tested/confirmed cases are thought to be asymptomatic, and that amount > translates into the general population, then the number is larger than > 2m/7.5b. Or, even if those we labelled asymptomatic were presymptomatic, > the 80% mild symptom number will rise above 80%. > > Those of us considering never shaking hands again in our lifetime, or > never leaving home again, or whatever insane extreme are _catastrophizing_. > It's a sign of low tolerance for ambiguity ... which I guess is typical for > dorks like us ... but we should at least recognize it in ourselves. > > My prescription for Nick is to turn off the internet, smoke a little weed, > and start reading a big fat novel. 8^) > > > On 4/9/20 3:34 PM, Gary Schiltz wrote: > > From what I've read, it seems to me that if the only way for the virus > to be stopped is for enough people to become immune that it runs out of > hosts in which to reproduce. Immunity could develop in at least three ways: > a) be vaccinated (probably 2+ years off); b) have natural immunity > (probably a low percentage, besides who wants to risk it?); or c) be > infected and recover (thus *presumably* making them immune).The only > purpose of flattening the curve is to try to reduce mortality (and maybe > even reduce the permanent damage done to the body) by keeping the medical > systems from becoming overwhelmed. Given how few people have been infected > and then either died or recovered (fewer than 2 million infected out of 7.5 > billion, i.e. 0.026%), we could repeat this curve flattening exercise a > thousand times before it would burn itself out. > > > > Seems to me we have to either wait for a vaccine, or resign ourselves to > the fact that we are going to get infected. Or just stay out in the cloud > forest like I'm doing and never see anyone face to face again. Am I missing > something? > > > -- > ☣ uǝlƃ > > .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... > .... . ... > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/FRIAM-COMIC> > http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > -- George Duncan Emeritus Professor of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University georgeduncanart.com See posts on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram Land: (505) 983-6895 Mobile: (505) 469-4671 My art theme: Dynamic exposition of the tension between matrix order and luminous chaos. "Attempt what is not certain. Certainty may or may not come later. It may then be a valuable delusion." >From "Notes to myself on beginning a painting" by Richard Diebenkorn. "It's that knife-edge of uncertainty where we come alive to our truest power." Joanna Macy.
.-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
