Hi, Glen, Perhaps they seem optimistic to me only because mine have been so pessimistic. I have assumed that I am immobilized here in Santa Fe for the next year. I even put up a list on my wall of 365 days and have been crossing them off, one by one. What I see on that site suggests to me that I might actually get to my garden in Massachusetts by early June. I just heard an interview with Daniel Kahneman (who is in my age range) who says essentially that he expects to stay home for the rest of his life because of the disease. I just heard from Dave West (He's fine!) who decided to make a run for home from Amsterdam and essentially had a 747 to himself. Perhaps now is exactly the time to make a run for MA.
So, you see, my thinking about all of this is deranged and intensified by its personal implications. So perhaps I ought to be keeping my thoughts to myself. I have my favorite dog in this fight; too much skin in this game. My pessimistic view is that until we are back to contact tracing levels everybody should stay home. Others seem to imagine essentially eliminating the disease from the population by social distancing in the next month. and then going back pretty much to business as usual. I WANT those "others" to be right, but I am having a hard time selling it to myself. At the minimum, any restarting would require public health departments to have the power to snatch contacts off the street, throw them in sterilized vans, and cart them off to motels to watch Fox News for two weeks. Apparently, people boarding airplanes in Wuhan, are doing so in hazmat gear. I just don't see that happening, here. Even at the current "peak", SW airlines is not screening passengers or taking temps at the gate. I read some where that Trump is losing a Billion dollars (a month? from the crisis. Hey, every cloud has a silver lining. Definitely deranged, Nick Nicholas Thompson Emeritus Professor of Ethology and Psychology Clark University [email protected] https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ -----Original Message----- From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of u?l? ? Sent: Thursday, April 9, 2020 2:48 PM To: FriAM <[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] covid19.healthdata.org Can you explain why you think estimates are optimistic? Their uncertainty shading gives them quite a bit of leeway. On 4/9/20 11:18 AM, [email protected] wrote: > Sorry, I have never been much good at this screen capture thang. > Below are fragments of two pages from the IHME website, > > > > https://covid19.healthdata.org > > > > the same website from which I sent you a bit of cheerful FAQ, last night. > You can get to any state and several countries, by clicking on the down arrow > beside the heading, United States of America. > > > > The first screen shot shows how they understand what is going on in > NM, where they say that we have no “stay at home order” implemented. And > indeed, there seems to be more “bustle” on the streets than I would have > expected. > > > > The second shows their prediction of resource demand for the US generally, > which they claim will reach it’s peak in a few days. This just seems > howlingly optimistic. I suppose they are thinking that the high population > centers are peaking now, and whatever happens in the South won’t push us to a > higher peak if those blue-state numbers are falling. Still …. > > > > The FAQ seems to suggest that this will be a nightmare in the rear view > mirror as we all gather for the 4^th of July Celebration on the Mall, with > Trump soliciting adulation for his terrific response to the virus. This HAS > to be nuts. What am I missing, here? -- ☣ uǝlƃ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ .-. .- -. -.. --- -- -..-. -.. --- - ... -..-. .- -. -.. -..-. -.. .- ... .... . ... FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/
