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On Tue, Apr 6, 2021 at 12:55 PM <[email protected]> wrote: > Dave, and all, > > > > One of the central ideas of the original (French, 19 century) positivism > is the idea that some phenomena (like crime) are very stable at the > aggregate level, even though high unpredictable at the individual level. > (i.e., we are much better at predicting how many murders there will be in > Paris this year than we are at predicting who will murder whom.) (I say > this with all the confidence of an Old Fart who is losing his memory but > not his confidence in his memory.) Now, I have been trying to work out a > theory concerning the relation between lockdowns and fear based on my > assumption that the statistical relation between fear and transmission is > precise, but the relation between lockdowns and transmission and lockdowns > and fear is wooly. I am assuming that there is a delayed feedback relation > between fear and transmission such that when transmission is down, fear > goes down and then transmission rises and then fear rises, resulting in the > wild oscillations characteristic of delayed feedback systems. Ok, so let's > start with the assumption that if we were able to abstract this delayed > feedback cycle from the data, would there be any variance left to attribute > to lockdowns and other forms of public policy. I am not entirely sure what > the effect of lockdowns is on fear. I can imagine that lockdowns actually > reduce fear in some people. Seeing that others are careful, I am a little > less careful, etc. But I can also imagine that lockdowns increase > compliance is some other people, whose social anxiety is stronger than > their viral anxiety. Could these two effects more or less cancel one > another out? Or could their effect be to enhance the oscillation in the > basic delayed feedback system, since public policy has characteristically > been a follower, not a leader, of fear. > > > > But Dave, as often, I detect in you a desire that lockdowns be nugatory. > What is the basis for that *desire?* > > > > Nick > > > > Nick Thompson > > [email protected] > > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of u?l? ??? > Sent: Monday, March 15, 2021 4:19 PM > To: [email protected] > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns > > > > Both Bhattacharya and Ioannidis have been vocal in opposing lockdowns, > even to the extent of lobbying for herd immunity. That they *confirmed* > their political biases is not news. It would be interesting to see if they > preregistered their hypotheses and analysis methods. > > > > On 3/15/21 2:56 PM, Prof David West wrote: > > > the AP published a study that seems to demonstrate lock downs had no > effect on Corona spread. South Dakota and Connecticut (small states) had > very similar outcomes despite widely variant degree of lock down. So too > Florida and California, the latter draconian while the former laissez-faire. > > > > > > Of course all the usual caveats applicable to such studies apply. > > > > > > I wonder if any country/state would dare to do an honest cost-benefit > study? > > > > > > -- > > ↙↙↙ uǝlƃ > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam un/subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ >
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