EricC, et al- I really appreciate your elaborate analysis of this (general) phenomenon. I suspect this last year, the myriad governmental (and NGO) responses around the world will provide a *wealth* of data for Forensic Epidmiologists.
Not picking on DaveW particularly, I found it incredibly specious this year every time someone (probably including myself) made an ad-hoc comparison between an apple, a pear, and an orangatan and tried to draw some specific conclusion from it. It always felt like clutching for confirmation bias, maybe most painfully when I caught myself doing it. Like your own perspective on Sweden's response, I *wanted* to believe that a lightly populated, very socially coherent, somewhat geographically isolated could modulate R0 through distributed, personal decision-making with top-down/centralized "advice" and "reporting". So I cherry picked from samples and perspectives that *appeared to be working* while the naysayers were gleefully doing the same thing in an opposite sense. I *want* (still) to believe that I would claim the same for RedState BlueState players in the very same game. I *wanted* to believe that Sturgis was the stupidest thing anyone could do (from a public-health perspective) and that the whole state of South Dakota (and near environs) would collapse into a Zombie Apocalypse within a few weeks, and then as any strong-positive correlations came up, I jumped up and down and shouted "See, See, See!" (in my own head while shaking my tiny fist at my Large and Tiny Screens). Same for a million other examples (various COVID-denying/downplaying/overplaying examples with various positive/negative feedback samples). NickT - I appreciate your calling this out as "why do you *want* to believe X?". I can't remember what the questionaire was that some of us took to yield this SnarkChart, but I think there is a correlation. I actually think this is the wrong basis space (axes) but the Authoritarian/Anarchist axis seems relevant. I don't know what Left/Right imply here (Collective vs Individual Good?). On 4/7/21 8:24 AM, Eric Charles wrote: > We will be at least a few years post-mass-vaccination before we will > be able to really get a handle on what worked and what didn't. As long > as there are more waves yet to come, we cannot possibly draw firm > conclusions about which strategies worked and which didn't. > > However, tentative evaluations still have value. In that veign, a > decent New Yorker article just dropped looking at Sweden's response: > https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment > <https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment> > > One thing that stands out to me in the beginning of the New Yorker > article is Sweden's early rhetoric arguing that any measures they take > be based on /_evidence_/. To the extent that really played into their > response, that is a /terrible /strategy if you find yourself in the > midst of a pandemic. This seems like a solid William James > Will-To-Believe issue; the choice of how to respond was live, > unavoidable, and momentous. Doing nothing wasn't neutrally "waiting > for evidence", it was taking a clear side, and to pretend otherwise > couldn't be anything other than disingenuous political rhetoric. > > I have consistently been a fan of Sweden's response as > a-viable-hypothesis-to-test. It WAS reasonable to hypothesize that a > race to mass immunity would - over the long haul - result in a better > outcome for the nation. And, as covered well towards the end of the > New Yorker piece, it is not clear Sweden screwed up (compared with > /averages /of countries that chose various stricter lockdowns). If you > had pressed the pause button at certain points over the last year, it > seemed like Sweden was horribly wrong (e.g., mid-April). If you had > pressed the pause button at other points, it seemed like Sweden had > achieved its goal (mid-July to mid-October averaged only 2 or 3 deaths > per day). Until things run their course, and we have/a lot/ of time to > look at the data, we won't know for sure. And also, even then, we need > to remember that when-a-vaccine-would-arrive-and-how-good-it-would-be > was an unknown, which made any decision to bank on a quick vaccine a > big gamble. > > > > > On Tue, Apr 6, 2021 at 11:55 PM <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > > Hi, Dave, > > Am I allowed to answer the same email twice? Well, I guess we'll > see. > > I cannot imagine states more different than north Dakota and > Connecticut. Ct is 48th in size, 4th in density, and was next to > two of the early hot spots. North Dakota is 17th in size, and > 49th in density and was late to the party. ND is first in total > cases per population, CT is 24th. You're trolling me, right? > Omigosh. I've been pranked. > > Still, I want to know -- NOT a rhetorical question -- why you WANT > to believe that public health measures don't work. > > Nick > > > > > Nick Thompson > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/ > <https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/> > > -----Original Message----- > From: Friam <[email protected] > <mailto:[email protected]>> On Behalf Of J Dalessandro > Sent: Tuesday, April 6, 2021 8:24 PM > To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group > <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> > Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns > > Sorry, but my experience in Australia was/is much different. Lock > down and serious penalties greatly reduced community transmitted > cases. Early intervention and penalties was key. > > //Joe > > > --- > [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> > > > ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ > On Tuesday, March 16, 2021 8:56 AM, Prof David West > <[email protected] <mailto:[email protected]>> wrote: > > > the AP published a study that seems to demonstrate lock downs > had no effect on Corona spread. South Dakota and Connecticut > (small states) had very similar outcomes despite widely variant > degree of lock down. So too Florida and California, the latter > draconian while the former laissez-faire. > > > > Of course all the usual caveats applicable to such studies apply. > > > > I wonder if any country/state would dare to do an honest > cost-benefit study? > > > > davew > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> > > un/subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> > > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> > > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> > > > > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> un/subscribe > http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > <http://bit.ly/virtualfriam> > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > <http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com> > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > <http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/> > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > <http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/> > > > - .... . -..-. . -. -.. -..-. .. ... -..-. .... . .-. . > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Zoom Fridays 9:30a-12p Mtn GMT-6 bit.ly/virtualfriam > un/subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ > archives: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/
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