I think we have enough data points to make some initial observations. I lived
through two lockdowns in Australia- and it worked. You can track the cases of
community transmission over time before, during, and post lockdown. The figures
are posted for public consumption.
https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus
On Thu, Apr 8, 2021 at 00:24, Eric Charles <[email protected]>
wrote:
> We will be at least a few years post-mass-vaccination before we will be able
> to really get a handle on what worked and what didn't. As long as there are
> more waves yet to come, we cannot possibly draw firm conclusions about which
> strategies worked and which didn't.
>
> However, tentative evaluations still have value. In that veign, a decent New
> Yorker article just dropped looking at Sweden's response:
> https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/swedens-pandemic-experiment
>
> mailto:[email protected]
> One thing that stands out to me in the beginning of the New Yorker article is
> Sweden's early rhetoric arguing that any measures they take be based on
> evidence. To the extent that really played into their response, that is a
> terrible strategy if you find yourself in the midst of a pandemic. This seems
> like a solid William James Will-To-Believe issue; the choice of how to
> respond was live, unavoidable, and momentous. Doing nothing wasn't neutrally
> "waiting for evidence", it was taking a clear side, and to pretend otherwise
> couldn't be anything other than disingenuous political rhetoric.
>
> I have consistently been a fan of Sweden's response as
> a-viable-hypothesis-to-test. It WAS reasonable to hypothesize that a race to
> mass immunity would - over the long haul - result in a better outcome for the
> nation. And, as covered well towards the end of the New Yorker piece, it is
> not clear Sweden screwed up (compared with averages of countries that chose
> various stricter lockdowns). If you had pressed the pause button at certain
> points over the last year, it seemed like Sweden was horribly wrong (e.g.,
> mid-April). If you had pressed the pause button at other points, it seemed
> like Sweden had achieved its goal (mid-July to mid-October averaged only 2 or
> 3 deaths per day). Until things run their course, and we have a lot of time
> to look at the data, we won't know for sure. And also, even then, we need to
> remember that when-a-vaccine-would-arrive-and-how-good-it-would-be was an
> unknown, which made any decision to bank on a quick vaccine a big gamble.
>
> On Tue, Apr 6, 2021 at 11:55 PM <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> Hi, Dave,
>>
>> Am I allowed to answer the same email twice? Well, I guess we'll see.
>>
>> I cannot imagine states more different than north Dakota and Connecticut. Ct
>> is 48th in size, 4th in density, and was next to two of the early hot spots.
>> North Dakota is 17th in size, and 49th in density and was late to the party.
>> ND is first in total cases per population, CT is 24th. You're trolling me,
>> right? Omigosh. I've been pranked.
>>
>> Still, I want to know -- NOT a rhetorical question -- why you WANT to
>> believe that public health measures don't work.
>>
>> Nick
>>
>> Nick Thompson
>> [email protected]
>> https://wordpress.clarku.edu/nthompson/
>>
>> -----Original Message-----
>> From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of J Dalessandro
>> Sent: Tuesday, April 6, 2021 8:24 PM
>> To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group <[email protected]>
>> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] lockdowns
>>
>> Sorry, but my experience in Australia was/is much different. Lock down and
>> serious penalties greatly reduced community transmitted cases. Early
>> intervention and penalties was key.
>>
>> //Joe
>>
>> ---
>> [email protected]
>>
>> ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ Original Message ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
>> On Tuesday, March 16, 2021 8:56 AM, Prof David West <[email protected]>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> the AP published a study that seems to demonstrate lock downs had no effect
>>> on Corona spread. South Dakota and Connecticut (small states) had very
>>> similar outcomes despite widely variant degree of lock down. So too Florida
>>> and California, the latter draconian while the former laissez-faire.
>>>
>>> Of course all the usual caveats applicable to such studies apply.
>>>
>>> I wonder if any country/state would dare to do an honest cost-benefit study?
>>>
>>> davew
>>>
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>>
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