Hi all,
from Italy I look at
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/iem_market_info/2024-u-s-presidential-winner-takes-all-market/
and I hope...
Best, Pietro
Il 04/11/24 19:55, glen ha scritto:
Both Kalshi <https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections>
and PolyMarket <https://polymarket.com/elections> skew heavily for
Trump. I'm like ... 51% confident that Harris will win (barring legal
shenanigans). I figured I'd go ahead and participate. So I bought $50
worth of Harris "yes". And I've heard that there may be some rich
people manipulating the market. It's not clear to me why they'd do
that. But like Musk buying Twitter, it's clear that "disposable"
income takes on a deeper meaning when you've got so much of it. But
barring market manipulation: a) do y'all think the markets have more
"information", whatever that means, than the polls? And b) are y'all
participating in any of these markets?
--
Democrito, che ’l mondo a caso pone (Inferno, IV, 136)
"It is the hallmark of any deep truth that its negation is also a deep truth."
Niels Bohr.
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