That's interesting. Thanks!
DEM24_WTA $1 if the Democratic Party nominee receives the majority of
popular votes cast for the two major parties in the 2024 U.S. Presidential
election, $0 otherwise
REP24_WTA $1 if the Republican Party nominee receives the majority of
popular votes cast for the two major parties in the 2024 U.S. Presidential
election, $0 otherwise
That's pretty clear cut. I'm like 95% confident Harris will win more popular
votes over the entire nation. I suppose these could just be for Iowa. But I
don't think so. The popular vote is only indirectly related to who will be
inaugurated.
On 11/4/24 11:20, Pietro Terna wrote:
Hi all,
from Italy I look at
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/iem_market_info/2024-u-s-presidential-winner-takes-all-market/
and I hope...
Best, Pietro
Il 04/11/24 19:55, glen ha scritto:
Both Kalshi <https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections> and PolyMarket
<https://polymarket.com/elections> skew heavily for Trump. I'm like ... 51% confident that Harris will win (barring
legal shenanigans). I figured I'd go ahead and participate. So I bought $50 worth of Harris "yes". And I've
heard that there may be some rich people manipulating the market. It's not clear to me why they'd do that. But like Musk
buying Twitter, it's clear that "disposable" income takes on a deeper meaning when you've got so much of it.
But barring market manipulation: a) do y'all think the markets have more "information", whatever that means,
than the polls? And b) are y'all participating in any of these markets?
--
Democrito, che ’l mondo a caso pone (Inferno, IV, 136)
"It is the hallmark of any deep truth that its negation is also a deep truth."
Niels Bohr.
Ahttps://terna.to.it/breviArticoli.html riporto dei miei brevi articoli su
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