Being a materialist, I deny the distinction.
From: Friam <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Steve Smith Sent: Monday, November 17, 2025 11:59 AM To: [email protected] Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse? synthetic modulators of the feedback loops of a socio-cultural metabolism of morbid obesity? GLP1: a new mono-myth suitable for (firstworld) recovery (metabolic reset) from a life of junk-news/info consumption and other poor collective life choices? Does such lead to teleonomic healing or teleonomic capture? This is the never-ending debate between rePubs and Dems, between hyper-disciplinarian dad and indulgent mom? On 11/17/25 12:41 pm, Marcus Daniels wrote: Eli Lilly for GLP 1s? From: Friam <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> On Behalf Of Steve Smith Sent: Monday, November 17, 2025 10:41 AM To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse? I don't even know if I will send my response to this thread, I've come to delete most of my "usual" offerings without sending, some without finishing, others without starting. Some kind of entropy-minimization strategy on "y'all's" side of my Markov Blanket? Lots of rich stuff here. I don't think I disagree with any sentiment here (can they ALL be compatible?). Tom's original (implied) question is probably as much about "should those of us with fat ETF portfolios switch their mix from high-performing AI-fueled to some other place with better risk/reward ratios?" as it is about "is there even a 'there there' in the AI cascade of new affordances and competencies being offered (hyped) by 'the market'. But maybe they are fundamentally the same question in this highly human-conditioned manifold of intersubjective reality we inhabit together? Obligatory anecdote: when a moved to my current property (2000), A huge russian olive (50' tall, 3'diameter trunk, broad reaching branches) hosted a huge magpie nest in one of the forking horizontal branches... maybe 6-8' long made of branches from all over the property (area) and many other elements. It had a half-dozen babies in it when I first came to review the property but by the time we moved in, they had fledged and the nest was fully abandoned (only for the season?) Within the year we took it upon ourselves to remove the nest and found the myriad bits of interesting detritus they had gathered. The structure of the nest seemed fully rhymed and reasoned in spite of being opportunistic to the branch/twig/grass/fur/??? at hand and wabi sabi in the extreme, but the strange bright bits of yarn, string, fabric, bottle caps, broken glass, etc cetera, were much more arcane/occult-to-me. But nevertheless alliterated, rhymed and likely reasoned. As did our own slow picking-apart of the structure with the help of Jays, Packrats, and the weather which had it's own uses for these "objects of desire"? Within 3 years West Nile flared up the Rio Grande, killing (most notably, but not exclusively) Magpies. Even now, 20 years later, the populations have barely begun to recover in a small way, probably migrated back down from the Chama/Rio-Grande headwaters and environs? This anecdote could tangent into the (very few) people I know of who contracted (and one died) of West Nile during that time, and the cascade of influences/effects that had on the lives of the people I know, but except for a vague "where did all the Magpies go?" I hardly registered the *devastating* effect it had on the Magpies (and likely many other corvids/birds in the region?). Or tangent to the "Rabbit Hemorhaggic Fever Pandemic" which coincided with human's COVID 19 which devastated the Jack and Cotton populations here (and many other regions globally)... This is probably an allegory or parable or something. Re:Cautionary Tales starring NRA wankers - I did just (re) watch two Charlton Heston classics from my "coming of age" era: "Soylent Green" and "Planet of the Apes" but was spared (paywalls) from "Omega Man". I didn't tangent to "Ben Hur" nor "Moses" for different reasons, but to quote Glen (who might have been quoting David Byrne?): "Same as it ever was!" On 11/17/25 10:57 am, glen wrote: That's the point. Some of us line our nests with robust things like straw. Others line theirs with fantasies peddled by grifters and then expect the rest of us to share our nests when theirs collapse. We will *definitely* bail out the capitalists again ... and again ... and again, even after/while they['re] deport[ing] us, abusing us, killing us, sending us to kill foreigners, stealing our water to run their data centers, etc. We are the gift that keeps on giving. On 11/17/25 9:17 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: I remember where I was when I saw Torvalds’ first Linux release. I started downloading pretty much immediately and looking for a PC to sacrifice. It was hardly capitalist hype. *From: *Friam <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> on behalf of glen <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> *Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 8:54 AM *To: *[email protected] <mailto:*[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse? Exactly. That's Chris' basic argument. Even his point about fscking Twitter. To argue that it's "running just as well as it did" seems a bit discordant. But at some altitude, he's right. It's just as much of a toxic wasteland as it was before. Every time it crosses my gaze, I wonder why people still use it ... or bluesky, or reddit, or <arbitrary-tag>. My experiments with Cline have just about ended. I've decided to avoid it. It works great with Claude (and some others), but not with gpt-oss or codestral. Both of those work fine if *I* manage the prompting. Chris also mentions linux, which I've been using as my daily driver since ~1995 (?) ... IDK, maybe I was mostly using ultrix & minix in '95. But sporadically, as with the Windows 11 update breaking recovery, all the dorks get all riled up and talk about linux finally being ready for the desktop. [sigh] The fact is that we're no smarter than rats or birds who'll fill our nests with whatever stupid little shiny thing the capitalists bother to hype. On 11/17/25 8:21 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: The first example that comes to mind are malls. Malls aren't needed now so many of them are closing. Some people see something bad about that. I see something good about that: Ruts get erased and new opportunities arise. Power gets redistributed. We're between cycles of exploitation and exploration, and there's some adaptation that is required. -----Original Message----- From: Friam <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> On Behalf Of glen Sent: Monday, November 17, 2025 8:02 AM To: [email protected] <mailto:[email protected]> Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse? But Chris' argument isn't really about AI. Chris is as guilty of preemptive registration as the others. Short-term markets distort everything. The task is to free up the terms coercively bound by the grifters and marketeers. Once the terms are unbound, we can discover which formalisms fit and which don't. If we're charitable, Chris is right that *something* is amiss. The disagreement is about *what* is amiss. Same as it Ever Was. On 11/17/25 7:45 AM, Marcus Daniels wrote: But what ARE these investments right now? It seems to me they are well established companies: Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google. NVIDIA has existed and will exist should AI revenue dry up, just like it outlasted Ethereum mining. The new players aren’t yet public companies. OpenAI has a longer path to profitability, but Anthropic (technical users) is already making good progress @ $7B. AI has already penetrated education and will likely spread more. People will become dependent on it like they are dependent on cars. *From: *Friam <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> on behalf of Prof David West <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> *Date: *Monday, November 17, 2025 at 5:14 AM *To: *[email protected] <mailto:*[email protected]> <mailto:[email protected]> <[email protected]> *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Fwd: The coming AI crash-worse than the Dot Com stock collapse? Marcus and Jon are not incorrect. I do see a problem that they do not, the fact that the vast majority of users/adopters of AI are dramatically less technologically compentent than either of these gentlemen. The manager that is positive that AI will eliminate most if not all of his human employees, the student using an LLM to "cheat," the social media addicts taken with the latest AI fad bots, etc. etc. almost certainly will become disillusioned and turn away from AI. Perhaps more importantly, all the capitalists who see immediate—not long term—return on investment are not going to remain invested. Lot's of other peoples money will be lost as a byproduct. The market of Jon Marcuses is not large enough to sustain all the current investment. Maybe one large AI company will survive (ala Amazon that lost tons of money for a long long time). davew On Sun, Nov 16, 2025, at 3:51 PM, Jon Zingale wrote: I mostly agree with Marcus' sentiment. The dot com analogy may be apt, but it also smells too easy an analog. I find the K-shaped AI adoption to be bizarre. Personally, I do not believe LLMs, nor any particular architecture, to be the be-all-end-all. I suspect we will see a transition away from throwing money at developing the most general form and a move toward more idiosyncratic instantiations. For instance, I continue to think that Deepmind did meaningful work going the RL path with AlphaGo/Atari games and it has yet to come to my attention what happens when Transformers attempt to replicate these successes. Almost every LLM I have met is really really bad at go. This said, AI in their current form, and from this perspective, has been here for a decade. Some have adopted it and use it to surprising effect, others treat LLMs as nothing more than a robust database querying language. What people do with it and how they perceive it will undoubtedly have an impact. In the meantime, I am excited to see what happens as programmers learn to use formal type theories as pidgins and LLMs become more amenable to compositionality. .- .-.. .-.. / ..-. --- --- - . .-. ... / .- .-. . / .-- .-. --- -. --. / ... --- -- . / .- .-. . / ..- ... . ..-. ..- .-.. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Fridays 9a-12p Friday St. Johns Cafe / Thursdays 9a-12p Zoom https://bit.ly/virtualfriam to (un)subscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ archives: 5/2017 thru present https://redfish.com/pipermail/friam_redfish.com/ 1/2003 thru 6/2021 http://friam.383.s1.nabble.com/
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