|
Thanks for posting, Arthur. I've skimmed
the Nesbitt Burns stuff and will look at more thoroughly when I have a little
more time. It does seem that, as a friend put it, that we are being
targeted by converging runaway trains global
warming, pandemic diseases, resource shortages, terrorism, to mention the more
outstanding ones. But then I think we always have been the targets of such
things.
A few years ago, I did some research on on what
people in history, especially the poor, had to cope with to keep themselves and
their families alive. The series of short essays that resulted can be
found at http://www.cyberus.ca/~ec086636/coping.htm .
The following short bit deals with the impact of the Black Death. Note the
dip in the population of Europe in the 14th Century in the chart I
developed.
The period prior to the Black Death was a happy
one, culminating in the Twelth Century Enlightenment. Anyhow here's how I
saw things:
Consider the past
thousand years, the "second millennium". During its first 300 years, the
population of Europe may have more than doubled, from less than 50 million in
the year 1000 to approximately 100 million by the end of the 13th Century. The
devastating raids of the Vikings had more or less ended. Trade and commerce
were spreading. The climate of the time, referred to as "the little climatic
optimum" was favourable, so much so that the Norse were able to maintain
agricultural settlements in Greenland. There were many years of good harvests
and Europeans rarely wanted for food. Intellectually, this was the period of
the Twelfth Century Renaissance, a time of scholarly progress based on the
rediscovery of Greek and Latin philosophy and literature, and on intellectual
exchanges with Arabic peoples who occupied southern Spain. It was a time of
religious experimentation, of the development of lay and mendicant monastic
orders, of mysticism and secularism, and of the spread of "heretical"
religions. It was also a time in which the established church justifiably felt
its authority to be slipping.
The chart is derived from various sources, such as . Josiah C.
Russell, "Population in Europe:, in Carlo M. Cipolla, ed., The Fontana
Economic History of Europe, Vol. I: The Middle Ages, (Glasgow :
Collins/Fontana, 1972), 25-71 (Internet Medieval Source Book) For the
latter centuries it includes, it generally agrees with estimates provided
by Professor Folke Dovring of the University of Illinois in 1966: "It has
been calculated that the total population of Europe (including Russia)
rose from about 120 million in 1700, to a little more than 190 million in
1800, then to over 400 million in 1900 and to some 57O million at the eve
of the Second World War." However, its estimate for the last figure,
population just prior to WW II is lower than Dovring's. (Folke Dovring,
The Transformation of European Agriculture, in H.J. Habakkuk and
M. Postan, eds., The Cambridge Economic History of Europe,
Cambridge, 1966, Vol 2, p.604)
This happy period was followed by one
of deep despair. A worsening climate led to worsening economic conditions.
Europe was devastated by famine early in the 14th Century. But the defining
horror of the period was the Black Death, which raged through much of Europe
between 1347 and 1350. Estimates of the plague's impact vary; many areas were
devastated, others spared. Generally, it is believed that one-third to one-half
of Europe's population died in a mere three years. The plague returned every few
decades for the next three centuries, but its impact became less devastating
with the passage of time.
For those who did not perish, the
years following the Black Death were relatively good. Labour had become scarce,
and wages were high. New freedoms were allowed peasants, but more were demanded.
Peasants rebelled. The Jacquerrie in France in 1358 and the Peasants Revolt in
England in 1381 demonstrated that commoners had, for a short period, experienced
a new awareness of their economic worth and political power.
Ed
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, August 18, 2005 10:46
AM
Subject: [Futurework] Avian Flu
report
this
report from a financial institution deals with Avian Flu and financial markets
and of course the economy and the future of work.
Subject: [Ottawadissenters] Avian Flu
report
Thanks to Barry Randall for informing me of this.
It is about much more than investing.
SDteve
[PDF] special
report.indd
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - View as HTML
DONALD COXE. BMONESBITTBURNSRESEAR
CH. An Investor's. Guide to Avian Flu ...
breakout (discussed
earlier by Don Coxe), would have hugely disruptive
...
www.bmonesbittburns.com/economics/reports/20050812/avian_flu.pdf
- 15 Aug 2005 -
YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS
_______________________________________________
Futurework mailing
list
Futurework@fes.uwaterloo.ca
http://fes.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
|
