It's a long story. Kondratieff studied historical time series for prices and detected an approximately 50-year cycle of expansion and contraction. Ernest Mandel revisited Kondratieff's findings in his 1972 book, Late Capitalism, and supplied a theoretical explanation for it. In my paper, I elaborated on Mandel's explanation and developed a hypothesis that the timing of the long waves was dictated by generational succession. The behavior and attitudes of people who have grown up under a given level of technology and living standards -- and thus take them for granted -- is quite different than that of people who were already mature when the changes were occurring. Some years later, Jerry Lembcke wrote an article published in Science and Society, "Why 50 Years? Working - Class Formation and Long Economic Cycles." that came to similar conclusions. In the 1990s I had a web page on the Kondratieff waves, but not even the Wayback Machine can retrieve it now.
On Sun, Aug 29, 2010 at 9:15 AM, Ray Harrell <[email protected]> wrote: > Would you refresh us? > > > > REH > > > > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Sandwichman > *Sent:* Sunday, August 29, 2010 12:06 PM > > *To:* RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION > *Subject:* Re: [Futurework] FW: The Next 500 Years > > > > "Mike Hollinshead tells me there is a similar wave pattern around > economics. Anyone know anything about that?" > > Kondratieff waves. I wrote a paper on that back in 1979. I guess you could > say I know something about it. > > On Sat, Aug 28, 2010 at 7:46 PM, Ray Harrell <[email protected]> wrote: > > 2012 will be ten cycles of 52 years exactly sing 1492. What do we call > those ten cycles? Heaven or Hell? Actually hell is supposed to be 13 > cycles. So we have three left over. Three the sacred number > for……………who? Well we have the three Elder Fires that are representative > of the Great Mystery. Or maybe something was going on here and in > Europe in 1336. Anyone have any ideas? Mike Hollinshead tells me > there is a similar wave pattern around economics. Anyone know anything > about that? We say that it could be the beginning of the 9 heavens but > we would have to be up to it.:>)) I don’t know, I’m doing housework and > I’m tired. 500 seems like a lot to contemplate. I’m just teaching my > classes and trying to give away all of this stuff that I have accumulated > over 52 years of teaching. Oops! 52 again. Am I sixty seven or sixty > eight? > > > > REH > > > > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Michael Gurstein > *Sent:* Saturday, August 28, 2010 4:28 PM > *To:* 'RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION' > *Subject:* [Futurework] FW: The Next 500 Years > > > > And this one seems to tie it all together--Ray's speaking from and with his > ancestors, Mike's digressions about quantum physics, and my positioning for > something anchored in the urban flow... > > > > M > > > > -----Original Message----- > *From:* [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] *On Behalf > Of *Sid Shniad > *Sent:* Saturday, August 28, 2010 11:47 AM > *Subject:* The Next 500 Years > > http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/08/26 > > > CommonDreams.org <http://www.commondreams.org/> > August 26, 2010 > The Next 500 Years > > by Robert C. Koehler > > The participants in this unique dialogue may have been doing no less than > opening the window on the next 500 years. > > As scary and stupefying as our world sometimes seems, we are at a place of > enormous potential right now -- a transition point of unprecedented > understanding among cultures and peoples and worldviews. Pushing that > understanding, creating, in the words of the late physicist David Bohm, a > milieu of "participatory consciousness" among radically diverse thinkers, is > the idea behind the Language of Spirit Conference, sponsored by the SEED > Graduate Institute, which has been held in Albuquerque every year since > 1999. > > Last week I attended the 12th annual Language of Spirit Conference, which > brought together Western scientists and scholars and Native North American > and Australian scientists, philosophers and storytellers, not to argue, but > to grope for commonality at the far reaches of their belief systems. The > original dialogues, convened by Bohm and Leroy Little Bear (former director > of Native Studies at Harvard) in Kalamazoo, Mich., in 1992, came about > because Little Bear, who was well-versed in the developments of quantum > physics, realized that Western science had reached the end of linear thought > and finally got it: The universe is a living, conscious, interconnected > organism. > > This is how the world's indigenous people see things. They always have. > Reverently tied to place, they have been the natural world's caretakers for > thousands of years. They are *of* the world, living not just sustainably > but in intimate relationship with their sacred piece of Planet Earth. > > "We are a people who never made singing or dancing unrespected ways of > knowing," said Pat McCabe, a Navajo writer and scholar who also goes by the > name Woman Stands Shining. "All of the five-fingered ways of knowing > remained open to us." > > And now . . . now . . . 500 years after Western conquistadors subdued and > divided the planet, devastating indigenous people on every continent and, > while they were at it, pushing the natural world to the brink of > eco-collapse, we are turning -- some of us -- to the wisdom of connectedness > that has been ours for the asking all along. > > This isn't easy or simple. Our disconnect from one another, from ourselves > and from the natural world is embedded in the Western languages, which break > the world into millions of discrete, manipulable pieces, called nouns ("My > name is Matthew. I'm a nounaholic," cried linguist Matthew Bronson). > Westerners control reality through language, but they don't evoke it. > Indigenous languages are, as I am slowly coming to understand them, > verb-based, intrinsically linking speaker and object in a flow of motion > that cannot be linguistically sliced and diced. > > Just as I began writing this column, the New Yorker arrived in the mail. On > the cover of the Aug. 30 issue is a drawing of a middle-aged white guy > sitting on a beach chair at the edge of the ocean, smugly pointing a TV > remote at it -- perfectly illustrating the disconnected, control-fixated > Westerner the Language of Spirit Conference was addressing . . . the one who > has done so much harm. > > With eerie synchronicity, the water on the New Yorker cover flows back to > the dialogue. Speaking about the BP oil spill, SEED founder Glenn Aparicio > Parry noted in amazement, "The mainstream world believes that water is dead > -- yet we're 70 percent water." > > "The assumption of the laws (of science)," said biophysicist Beverly Rubik, > "is that we're a non-living universe. We ought to start over. We have a > science that starts with deadness. It's time to revision science -- in a > living universe." > > These words begin to get at the vibration of the conference -- this > exercise in participatory consciousness -- which struck at the core of > something vital. The ostensible subject of the 12th Language of Spirit > dialogue was time. The speakers dismantled linear time, the kind that moves > in a straight line and pulls us along on its track. (In the U.S., time > wasn't standardized till 1886, when the railroads demanded it.) Nonlinear > time -- the timelessness of dreaming, reverence, prayer and awe -- filled > the room, and I could feel the living universe pulse. It pulsed with love. > > "The eagle is more valuable to you alive" than as merely a source of > feathers, said Chickasaw poet Linda Hogan. "The sacred thing is the life > force." > > It also pulsed with anger. Writer M.J. Zimmerman, speaking about SEED > spiritual mentor Leon Secatero, who died in 2008, said: "Grandfather Leon > always talked about getting ready for the next 500 years. We're in a > transition point. The anger of colonization should not be brought into the > next 500 years. > > "Hurt people hurt people," she added. "Europeans have moved into every part > of this planet and hurt people." She offered the plea that we in the > disconnected West find our own roots, dig "way back into our own traumatic > history" and begin to heal our brokenness. > > And for the first time in my life I found myself groping in the darkness of > my own past, beyond a few generations of known ancestors and beyond my > identity as an American, toward an ancient tribal commonality that has > fallen out of history, and I felt a slow give in the assumptions of my life. > > "Everyone is indigenous," said Jill Milroy, dean of the School of > Indigenous Studies at the University of Western Australia. Perhaps knowing > this is the first step in envisioning the next 500 years. > > © 2010 Tribune Media Services, Inc. > > *Robert Koehler is an award-winning, Chicago-based journalist and > nationally syndicated writer. You can respond to this column at > [email protected] or visit his Web site at commonwonders.com.)* > > > > > > > !DSPAM:2676,4c795db7177553508518627! > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > > > > -- > Sandwichman > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > -- Sandwichman
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