Good morning, Mike, Yes, the second intifada marked something of a turning point. I think in part people just gave up on the possibility of a negotiated peace. The US's insistence even now on this seems quaint and naive, against the backdrop of what has actually happened in the negotiations. When Oslo didn't lead to the envisaged peace, it seemed clear to me that without a sea-change in the policies of the US Israeli-Palestinian negotiations were going to be a charade more aimed at influencing public perceptions than achieving a resolution of the conflict.
In our probability-based forecasts, we rated in March (2012) the prospect of substantive progress via negotiations at about only 12%. I haven't studied Canadian politics at all, so only have a naive view of what is going on. I've always had a very high opinion of the quality of Canadian political life and the Canadian people. Their welcome to American Viet Nam resisters and their heroic, bold, and selfless actions to help US citizens and diplomats escape from Tehran were a big part of this view, as was the seemingly quiet, respectful, and intellectually honest nature of political discourse. This was comforting to me. If the Canadians could manifest this quality of discourse, then maybe the US could achieve it some day. I have felt some anguish over the last couple of years though. Between the CBC and the heartfelt comments posted here and on the Ottawa Dissenters list, I am concerned that some of these qualities may be diminishing. Was I merely naive before, or have things deteriorated politically in Canada? Or is my take on all this simply wrong? Cheers, Lawry On Aug 7, 2012, at 6:05 AM, michael gurstein wrote: > My experience doing work in several parts of MENA and elsewhere in > predominantly Muslim countries is very consistent with this… particularly > before the 2nd Intifada (approx. 2005 or so… Since then positions on the > Muslim side in several of the countries in which I have worked have hardened > very considerably and the achievements of Israel (as Semitic "cousins") have > come to be ignored while anger at various of the more egregious of Israel's > actions has come to the fore both at the popular level and at the official > level. (As an aside I'm seeing a somewhat similar process begin to take place > with respect to Canada's international standing and reputation as the deep > well spring of good will and respect for Canada's behaviour in the world is > overtaken by various of the actiions of the Harper government as for example > in its cancellation of various of Canada's development assistance programs in > support of assistance for Canadian mining companies with their difficulties > at the grassroots levels in various Developing country environments. > > M > > From: [email protected] > [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of de Bivort Lawrence > Sent: Monday, August 06, 2012 8:25 AM > To: Keith Hudson; RE-DESIGNING WORK, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, EDUCATION > Subject: Re: [Futurework] Hatred against Israel organizing principle of the > Middle East > > … > > My sense is, and this summarizes many disparate conversations with > Arabs/Muslims about Israel, is not that Israeli technological and scientific > success provokes them against Israel, but that the seizure of Palestine; the > current onerous and murderous occupation; the Israeli black ops against Arabs > and Muslim countries; and the 1948, 1956, and 1967 wars are the cause of such > anger at Israel. > > Israel's technological succes is something that many Palestinians, Arabs and > Muslims admire, though the relative debauchery of some segments of the > Israeli Jewish population do not. Of course, the Arabs have their own record > of world-class debauchery among some of their elites -- a source of > considerable resentment and contempt among the general population. > > Or an interpersonal level, Israelis and Palestinians (and Arabs/Muslims) > generally can get along fairly easily. Indeed I know of many deep and lasting > friendships between them, including marriages. > > Cheers, > Lawry > > > On Aug 6, 2012, at 7:11 AM, Keith Hudson wrote: > > > Muhammad enjoined his followers to treat Jews and Christians with respect, as > fellow believers in the Bible (that is, the old testament) and partners of > the Abrahamic line. What has coloured Muslim's attitude to non-Muslims is a > byproduct of the growing overlay of antipathy between the Sunnis and Shias of > their own faith. Also, I feel sure that the scientific and technological > successes of Israel in recent years, rather than its mere existence, have > been provocative. > > Keith > > At 20:53 05/08/2012, Arthur wrote: > > Just to provide some more perspective on the very unstable middle east. > > Israel, the Arab world’s all-purpose enemy > > > > George Jonas | > > Aug 4, 2012 6:01 AM ET | > > Last Updated: Aug 4, 2012 9:48 AM ET > > National Post > > And how is the Arab Spring? Well, there’s bad news, and good news. The bad > news is that since the beginning of the phenomenon that has been discussed > more and understood less than any in recent years, hostility to Israel in the > region has only increased. The good news is that while the appetite to harm > the Jewish state and its inhabitants has grown in the Arab/Muslim world since > the fall of Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in Tunisia launched what was supposed to > be the region’s democratic renewal, the capacity to do so has diminished. > > An increase in hostility was predictable. Hatred against Israel, kept on a > low boil, is the organizing principle of the Middle East. It’s the region’s > main fuel of governance; often its only fuel. Some ruling regimes kings, > dictators, whatever may have oil wells and sandy beaches, but other than > hating Israel (and looking after their families and tribes) they have few if > any ideas. If they do, chances are it’s to hate some other group in addition > to Israel. > > In the Middle East a country’s national purpose often amounts to little more > than a list of its enemies. A feeling of being ill-done by dominates the > consciousness of groups and individuals. Since it’s a self-fulfilling > prophecy, it’s not necessarily baseless: The easiest way to have an enemy is > to be one. > > The centrality of hatred to the culture is remarkable. The Cartesian idea is > “I hate, therefore I am.” Self-righteousness is overwhelming: each desire > thwarted becomes an example of justice denied. It’s not a pretty place, but > millions call it home. > > In many ways, Israel is a godsend to the one-trick ponies who rule the > region. Their culture defines “ruling” as inoculating your own sect or tribe > against all others, including the ones that form your own country. Many > Middle East nations Iraq, Syria, Libya, to name three are just > temporarily halted civil wars. They’re truces rather than countries. Canada > may be “two solitudes,” but it isn’t an uneasy truce between French and > English Canadians. Iraq is, between Shia and Sunni Muslims. > > In such an ambiance, nothing is handier than an all-purpose enemy, just out > of reach, close enough to seem a realistic threat but too far to be one. > Tyrants can govern by whipping up enough popular sentiment against the Jewish > state to give their regimes an apparent national purpose and distract > people’s attention from domestic woes, then relax and spend some money in the > capitals of Europe. > > The key is a low boil, though. If the anti-Israeli sentiment boils over, > causing riots against the government for being too soft on the Zionists, or > foolish attempts to attack Haifa with rockets, which in turn invites > retaliation, the people’s hatred of Israel becomes a headache for the very > rulers who instigated it. > > “Yeah, well, it couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch,” somebody might say, “I’ll > lose no sleep over it.” He should, though, because it’s like pulling a thread > from a piece of fabric. Things can unravel in an instant. > > Tyranny, Egyptian-style, under Hosni Mubarak or Libyan-style, under Muammar > Gaddafi, often manifested itself in dictatorial governments balancing on a > tightrope, trying to maintain a fragile peace with Israel against their own > bellicose people, trying to counteract the effects of the sentiments they > themselves instigated. When they couldn’t, the forces they helped conjure up > turned against them. If lucky, they died in a hail of bullets on the > reviewing stand like Anwar Sadat; if not, bludgeoned like a cornered rat in a > culvert, in the manner of Gaddafi. It’s a fate Bashar al-Assad has been > trying to avoid, which is hardly surprising. > > Assad “has threatened to rain missiles down on Tel Aviv should NATO try to > dislodge him,” as Michael Koplow put it in the National Interest, but in fact > Syria’s tyrant has been raining missiles (and if not missiles, then shells > and bullets) on his own towns and villages. No wonder, for that’s where his > enemies live his actual enemies, as opposed to his mythical ones. It’s his > fellow Syrians who want to trap him in a culvert and drown him, preferably > along with his entire tribe. Israel has no interest in touching him with a > 10-foot pole, especially as long as he’s keeping Syria’s armed forces and > rebels thinning each other’s ranks. > > We won’t understand much about the Arab Spring as long as we persist in > looking at it through Western eyes. We see popular uprisings against > dictatorships as moves in the direction of Western-style democracy. If they > happened here, they probably would be. Where they’re actually happening > they’re taking their societies in the opposite direction. > > The Arab Spring is an attempt to return the region to its roots. It’s not to > Westernize the Middle East and make it more democratic; it’s to Easternize it > and make it more Islamic. If the early 20th century was about the East trying > to join what it couldn’t lick, the early 21st may be about the East trying to > lick what it hasn’t been able to join. > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > Keith Hudson, Saltford, England http://allisstatus.wordpress.com > > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework > > _______________________________________________ > Futurework mailing list > [email protected] > https://lists.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
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