Brian, I was not going to post any political pieces today, but since you asked, here's my update on Oregon that not coincidentally is part and parcel of the unfolding changes determining what it means to live and work in Oregon now, as compared to a generation ago, and what may become a less lovely place to live and raise a family, if the glass is indeed half empty - and leaking. See article below.
Strong last minute No votes killed Emergency Tax Measure 28 from what yesterday was a 48 - 48 split with 4% undecided. This may be as dramatic a split between Urban and Rural counties as any in recent memory. There seems to be a sentiment of "if that's what they voted for, let them see how bad it's going to be" regarding schools and quality of life ripple effects, especially the signal this sends to businesses who might have been considering locating in Oregon. Although supporters say they are encouraged by the closeness of the vote, I have heard that "teachers are looking for work elsewhere". They have been targeted for years by people who resent their benefits and retirement, and now face even larger classes and less pay, both of which they showed flexibility on in contract talks but held firm on benefits. The huge loss of jobs in the lumber and fishing industries since late 80s has deepened the Urban vs Rural divide. (New Civil Wars? Can Portland and Salem secede from the state?). Wouldn't universal health care solve so many problems with contracts? There will be an effort to protect K-12 schools, but there are a few reports that high school seniors are already being cold shouldered by out of state schools. Portland already has the shortest school calendar in the nation and some rural districts were running long days M -TH. Portland actually cut Spring sports from their budget, and only private donations have saved it thus far, prompted by concern that many seniors counting on athletic scholarships would lose their chance at college. Tuition will go up again. Have seen TV commercials asking for private donations to "save Outdoor School", a very popular science camp for 6th graders that was cut. Will let you know if and when the schools shorten the calendar, as predicted, and if that does indeed threaten their certification, especially with the Reaganesque No Child Left Behind policy in place that has no money to make it happen. A news report this morning mentioned that Multnomah county jail will begin releasing prisoners today. This happened before due to temporary overcrowding, but this is assumed to be permanent. Previously, seven City prosecutors were pink-slipped, and court is in session M-TH to save paying court clerks and admin costs, so that court dockets are already affected. There is talk of raising the bar on what goes to trial, thus the Police Chief warned last month that criminals will have less to fear. Not a pretty picture, even more so if nonviolent prisoners are released early into a high unemployment situation where white collar folks with education can't find jobs. Since Oregon does not have military bases or produces much in military-industrial-complex revenue, I am not anticipating benefits from any residual war spending - that will go to Washington State. The whole archeology dept at Oregon State moved to Texas last summer. Lock, stock and barrel with 22 faculty gone. Business leaders will soon be tiptoeing around hoping not to hear the phrase, Brain Drain. After years of complaining about the size of government and NIMBY, I heard one conservative complain on TV last week that they hated it that Oregon was getting all this "negative national publicity". The projected tax would have been $17 for AGI $10-20K, $49 for $20 - 30K and $80 for $30-40K, each year for three years ($212 for $75-100K, $385 for $100-200K, over $200K $1,686; all returns $114) and took into account changes in the federal deduction for state taxes. I know plenty of people who easily spend $40 on lattes a month, not a year. There is a breakdown of trust: is the state lying about how bad it is or not? The impact of a generation of voters hearing nothing but how bad and evil Big Gov't Is has come home to roost in a recession. - Karen Watters Cole Voters reject tax increase By Jeff Mapes and James Mayer, The Oregonian 01/29/03 Oregon voters on Tuesday rejected a three-year income tax increase, turning aside fears that schools, state police and the needy would be hurt by new budget cuts. The defeat of Measure 28 underscored Oregonians' historic reluctance to approve new taxes of almost any kind. Although voters did agree to raise the cigarette tax last fall, they've never approved a general tax increase of any kind since they adopted the current income-tax system in 1930. In the wake of the defeat, Republican legislators said they'd push to ease the impact of some of the harshest budget cuts, particularly to the mentally ill and the elderly. But Gov. Ted Kulongoski opposes trying to rework the cuts, his spokeswoman Mary Ellen Glynn said Tuesday night. Opponents, who were caught off guard by a rise in support for Measure 28 in recent weeks, were jubilant at its demise. "This is more of a mandate than I thought we'd receive," said Russ Walker of Citizens for a Sound Economy, a pro-business group that opposed the measure. "It really says something about where people's priorities are. They don't buy the line the state is hurting that bad." Supporters said they took comfort that there was a relatively strong vote for the proposed tax increase -- at least compared with many previous tax measures that failed to capture even a third of the voters. "We had great success getting this issue in the forefront," said Kris Kain, president of the Oregon Education Association, the teachers union. "I think it shows people really care about these issues. They disagree, but they really care." Even before the vote, Kulongoski and legislators from both parties had met privately to talk about whether to move away from some of the scheduled cuts if Measure 28 failed. House Speaker Karen Minnis, R-Wood Village, said she particularly wants to look at cuts to mental health care and senior citizen programs that "could absolutely put people out on the street." And Rep. Dan Doyle, R-Salem, is working on a plan that would reduce cuts to the Oregon State Police. Yet Glynn said Kulongoski thinks that "what's done is done" and that the Democratic governor did not want the Legislature bogged down in further debate about what to cut to make up for the failure of Measure 28. "We need to face up to the fact that Oregon is in a recession," Kulongoski said in a statement, "and our tax structure is such that when the economy takes a downturn, state services take a hit." The measure was winning in just four of the 36 counties. It was passing in heavily Democratic Multnomah County, but losing in suburban Clackamas and Washington counties. And the yes margin in Multnomah County was not strong enough to offset the big no vote in the rest of the state. Although the defeat of the proposed tax increase followed a common pattern, the election itself was one of the most unusual in Oregon history. In September, the Legislature referred the proposed three-year tax increase to voters after the recession caused a $2 billion dive in expected revenues for the state's 2001-03 budget. In addition to the Measure 28 income tax increase, lawmakers raised cigarette taxes and delayed an income tax cut. They tapped reserves and used other one-time revenues for $963 million and cut agency budgets by more than $720 million. The referral was a compromise between lawmakers who preferred to impose a temporary tax without sending it to voters and those who wanted to balance the budget with spending cuts. In fact, many legislators who voted to refer the measure to the ballot did so expecting it to fail. Outside the Legislature, the measure's chances were widely derided, but the state's public-employee unions decided they had a chance if they allied themselves with school and social service activists. While opponents largely slumbered, the unions assembled platoons of volunteers who helped wage a campaign that largely flew under the radar. They avoided television, instead using extensive phone banking and carefully targeted radio ads. State agencies, ordered to cut $310 million out of the last five months of the two-year budget cycle, came up with a series of reductions that further spurred the campaign. For example, the Department of Human Services last month sent 63,000 notices to care providers and social-service recipients warning that they faced benefit reductions and cutoffs. Critics complained that the cuts were more harmful than they needed to be, a charge denied by state officials who said they had already made millions of dollars in administrative cuts. By mid-January, a statewide poll showed the measure dead even in the polls -- the first time in at least two decades that support for a tax hike increased over the course of a campaign. News that the race was close did spark some opposition advertising on radio. And opponents said the relatively heavy turnout for a special election -- it exceeded 60 percent -- showed that both sides were getting their voters to return their ballots. "It takes a lot of pushing from proponents to get the tax measure up," said Portland pollster Tim Hibbitts, "and it doesn't take much for the opponents to push it back down." Harry Esteve of The Oregonian staff contributed to this report. Jeff Mapes: 503-221-8209; [EMAIL PROTECTED] James Mayer: 503-294-4109; [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.oregonlive.com/news/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/front_page/10438463 9752540.xml Outgoing mail scanned by NAV 2002 _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework _______________________________________________ Futurework mailing list [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://scribe.uwaterloo.ca/mailman/listinfo/futurework
