[geo] Re: WSJ - Op-Ed on Global Warming Skepticism

[John Nissen]

Hi Gene, Sunspot activity is pretty predictable, as you can see from the picture.  The 11 year cycle is apparent in tree rings. However the El Niño is totally unpredictable.  We have just had a strong La Niña: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7329799.stm The combination of low sunspot activity and La Niña has led to cooler global temperatures since 1998.  However, despite this, the Arctic sea ice has been retreating and breaking records (see Albert's email yesterday on the "Geoengineering seminar" topic). Thus there is now a significant possibility* of a seasonally ice-free Arctic ocean within two or three years.  Suppose SRM with stratospheric aerosol proves problematic. If we are to get the Salter/Latham cloud brightening technique working and scaled up, sufficient to cool the water entering the Arctic, we need to press ahead.  It is a matter of will.  This is not like putting a man on the moon! Cheers, John *P.S.  Any probability over 1% would be extremely significant, given the risks from methane out-gassing, etc., if the ice disappears. Eugene I. Gordon wrote: It is news that someone can actually predict sunsot activity . Assuming that is the case we can expect increased warming and more urgent need for geoengineering. We cannot predict reliably tomorrows' weather but we can predict next years climate??? -----Original Message----- From: John Nissen [mailto:j...@cloudworld.co.uk] Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 4:41 AM To: wig...@ucar.edu Cc: euggor...@comcast.net; 'Peter Read'; 'Ken Caldeira'; 'Margaret Leinen'; 'Mike MacCracken'; 'Ken Caldeira'; 'Dan Whaley'; 'Geoengineering' Subject: Re: [geo] Re: WSJ - Op-Ed on Global Warming Skepticism Concerning sunspots, we can expect much increased activity over next few years: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e1/Sunspot-bfly.gif And here is some news about El Niño: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1908533,00.html?xid=rss-topst ories So we can expect global temperatures to rise, and possibly the Arctic sea ice to retreat even faster! Are we prepared? Cheers, John Tom Wigley wrote: Gene, You never responded to Margaret's question (or perhaps I missed it). Tom. +++++++++++++++++++ --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to geoengineering@googlegroups.com To unsubscribe from this group, send email to geoengineering+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---