Actually, there is an active sunspot at this moment. See: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/07/04/th-sun-puts-on-some-fireworks-for-the-4th-of-july/
On Sun, Jul 5, 2009 at 2:56 PM, Eugene I. Gordon <[email protected]>wrote: > Here is the data as of end of May. Right now there are zero sunspots. The > prediction is probably not very meaningful but it is possibly a low or no > sunspot cycle. Who is to say what #24 will really bring? If it follows the > red line it will be cool. > > <http://www.sec.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/sunspot.gif> > > > > > > > > > > > > > ------------------------------ > *From:* [email protected] [mailto: > [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *David Schnare > *Sent:* Sunday, July 05, 2009 12:44 PM > *To:* [email protected] > > *Subject:* [geo] Re: WSJ - Op-Ed on Global Warming Skepticism > > The sun is "normal". It is at the nadir of its normal cycle. The > length of the cycle is still at issue, but cycle 24 has clearly begun, just > not very quickly. > > d. > > On Sun, Jul 5, 2009 at 7:34 AM, Andrew Lockley <[email protected] > > wrote: > >> Does anyone have any decent studies of what will happen when the sun >> gets back to normal? As far as I'm aware, the IPCC don't consider solar >> cycle factors when projecting temp. changes. >> We'd all look a bit silly if a totally-predictable .5C rise came and >> slapped up about the face like a wet fish in 5 or 10yrs time. >> >> A >> >> 2009/7/4 Eugene I. Gordon <[email protected]> >> >> Yes. And that is why we absolutely will need geoengineering, not as >>> insurance but as a means to keep the temperature in line. >>> >>> ------------------------------ >>> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >>> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Sam Carana >>> *Sent:* Friday, July 03, 2009 8:47 PM >>> *To:* Geoengineering >>> *Subject:* [geo] Re: WSJ - Op-Ed on Global Warming Skepticism >>> >>> It's not just sunspots. Have a look at this: >>> NASA report Deep Solar >>> Minimum<http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm>. >>> >>> http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm >>> >>> We are currently at the low point of number of solar cycles that combine >>> to mask the full impact of global warming. The sun hasn't been more quiet in >>> terms of sunspots since 1913; we're now at the low point of a sunspot cycle >>> that returns every 11 year, >>> >>> Additionally, we are at a 50-year low in solar wind pressure and at a low >>> in solar radio emissions; radio telescopes are now recording the dimmest >>> "radio sun" since 1955. >>> >>> Finally, we are also at a 12-year low in solar irradiance or brightness. >>> >>> This PARTLY explains why temperatures haven't risen as much as projected. >>> The conclusion is that the full impact of global warming is going to be a >>> lot worse from now on. >>> >>> >>> Cheers! >>> Sam Carana >>> >>> >>> On Sat, Jul 4, 2009 at 3:20 AM, John Nissen <[email protected]> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> Hi Gene, >>>> >>>> Sunspot activity is pretty predictable, as you can see from the >>>> picture. The 11 year cycle is apparent in tree rings. >>>> >>>> However the El Niño is totally unpredictable. We have just had a strong >>>> La Niña: >>>> http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7329799.stm >>>> >>>> The combination of low sunspot activity and La Niña has led to cooler >>>> global temperatures since 1998. However, despite this, the Arctic sea ice >>>> has been retreating and breaking records (see Albert's email yesterday on >>>> the "Geoengineering seminar" topic). >>>> >>>> Thus there is now a significant possibility* of a seasonally ice-free >>>> Arctic ocean within two or three years. Suppose SRM with stratospheric >>>> aerosol proves problematic. If we are to get the Salter/Latham cloud >>>> brightening technique working and scaled up, sufficient to cool the water >>>> entering the Arctic, we need to press ahead. It is a matter of will. This >>>> is not like putting a man on the moon! >>>> >>>> Cheers, >>>> >>>> John >>>> >>>> *P.S. Any probability over 1% would be extremely significant, given the >>>> risks from methane out-gassing, etc., if the ice disappears. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Eugene I. Gordon wrote: >>>> >>>> It is news that someone can actually predict sunsot activity . Assuming >>>> that >>>> is the case we can expect increased warming and more urgent need for >>>> geoengineering. We cannot predict reliably tomorrows' weather but we can >>>> predict next years climate??? >>>> >>>> -----Original Message----- >>>> From: John Nissen [mailto:[email protected] <[email protected]>] >>>> Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 4:41 AM >>>> To: [email protected] >>>> Cc: [email protected]; 'Peter Read'; 'Ken Caldeira'; 'Margaret Leinen'; >>>> 'Mike MacCracken'; 'Ken Caldeira'; 'Dan Whaley'; 'Geoengineering' >>>> Subject: Re: [geo] Re: WSJ - Op-Ed on Global Warming Skepticism >>>> >>>> >>>> Concerning sunspots, we can expect much increased activity over next few >>>> years:http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e1/Sunspot-bfly.gif >>>> >>>> And here is some news about El >>>> Niño:http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1908533,00.html?xid=rss-topst >>>> ories >>>> >>>> >>>> So we can expect global temperatures to rise, and possibly the Arctic sea >>>> ice to retreat even faster! >>>> >>>> Are we prepared? >>>> >>>> Cheers, >>>> >>>> John >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> Tom Wigley wrote: >>>> >>>> >>>> Gene, >>>> >>>> You never responded to Margaret's question (or perhaps I missed it). >>>> >>>> Tom. >>>> >>>> +++++++++++++++++++ >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >> >> >> -- >> David W. Schnare >> Center for Environmental Stewardship >> >> >> >> -- David W. Schnare Center for Environmental Stewardship --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
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