The sun is "normal". It is at the nadir of its normal cycle. The length of the cycle is still at issue, but cycle 24 has clearly begun, just not very quickly.
d. On Sun, Jul 5, 2009 at 7:34 AM, Andrew Lockley <[email protected]>wrote: > Does anyone have any decent studies of what will happen when the sun gets > back to normal? As far as I'm aware, the IPCC don't consider solar cycle > factors when projecting temp. changes. > We'd all look a bit silly if a totally-predictable .5C rise came and > slapped up about the face like a wet fish in 5 or 10yrs time. > > A > > 2009/7/4 Eugene I. Gordon <[email protected]> > > Yes. And that is why we absolutely will need geoengineering, not as >> insurance but as a means to keep the temperature in line. >> >> ------------------------------ >> *From:* [email protected] [mailto: >> [email protected]] *On Behalf Of *Sam Carana >> *Sent:* Friday, July 03, 2009 8:47 PM >> *To:* Geoengineering >> *Subject:* [geo] Re: WSJ - Op-Ed on Global Warming Skepticism >> >> It's not just sunspots. Have a look at this: >> NASA report Deep Solar >> Minimum<http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm>. >> >> http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm >> >> We are currently at the low point of number of solar cycles that combine >> to mask the full impact of global warming. The sun hasn't been more quiet in >> terms of sunspots since 1913; we're now at the low point of a sunspot cycle >> that returns every 11 year, >> >> Additionally, we are at a 50-year low in solar wind pressure and at a low >> in solar radio emissions; radio telescopes are now recording the dimmest >> "radio sun" since 1955. >> >> Finally, we are also at a 12-year low in solar irradiance or brightness. >> >> This PARTLY explains why temperatures haven't risen as much as projected. >> The conclusion is that the full impact of global warming is going to be a >> lot worse from now on. >> >> >> Cheers! >> Sam Carana >> >> >> On Sat, Jul 4, 2009 at 3:20 AM, John Nissen <[email protected]> wrote: >> >>> >>> Hi Gene, >>> >>> Sunspot activity is pretty predictable, as you can see from the picture. >>> The 11 year cycle is apparent in tree rings. >>> >>> However the El Niño is totally unpredictable. We have just had a strong >>> La Niña: >>> http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7329799.stm >>> >>> The combination of low sunspot activity and La Niña has led to cooler >>> global temperatures since 1998. However, despite this, the Arctic sea ice >>> has been retreating and breaking records (see Albert's email yesterday on >>> the "Geoengineering seminar" topic). >>> >>> Thus there is now a significant possibility* of a seasonally ice-free >>> Arctic ocean within two or three years. Suppose SRM with stratospheric >>> aerosol proves problematic. If we are to get the Salter/Latham cloud >>> brightening technique working and scaled up, sufficient to cool the water >>> entering the Arctic, we need to press ahead. It is a matter of will. This >>> is not like putting a man on the moon! >>> >>> Cheers, >>> >>> John >>> >>> *P.S. Any probability over 1% would be extremely significant, given the >>> risks from methane out-gassing, etc., if the ice disappears. >>> >>> >>> >>> Eugene I. Gordon wrote: >>> >>> It is news that someone can actually predict sunsot activity . Assuming that >>> is the case we can expect increased warming and more urgent need for >>> geoengineering. We cannot predict reliably tomorrows' weather but we can >>> predict next years climate??? >>> >>> -----Original Message----- >>> From: John Nissen [mailto:[email protected] <[email protected]>] >>> Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 4:41 AM >>> To: [email protected] >>> Cc: [email protected]; 'Peter Read'; 'Ken Caldeira'; 'Margaret Leinen'; >>> 'Mike MacCracken'; 'Ken Caldeira'; 'Dan Whaley'; 'Geoengineering' >>> Subject: Re: [geo] Re: WSJ - Op-Ed on Global Warming Skepticism >>> >>> >>> Concerning sunspots, we can expect much increased activity over next few >>> years:http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e1/Sunspot-bfly.gif >>> >>> And here is some news about El >>> Niño:http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1908533,00.html?xid=rss-topst >>> ories >>> >>> >>> So we can expect global temperatures to rise, and possibly the Arctic sea >>> ice to retreat even faster! >>> >>> Are we prepared? >>> >>> Cheers, >>> >>> John >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> Tom Wigley wrote: >>> >>> >>> Gene, >>> >>> You never responded to Margaret's question (or perhaps I missed it). >>> >>> Tom. >>> >>> +++++++++++++++++++ >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> > > > > -- David W. Schnare Center for Environmental Stewardship --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
