Yes. And that is why we absolutely will need geoengineering, not as insurance but as a means to keep the temperature in line.
_____ From: [email protected] [mailto:[email protected]] On Behalf Of Sam Carana Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 8:47 PM To: Geoengineering Subject: [geo] Re: WSJ - Op-Ed on Global Warming Skepticism It's not just sunspots. Have a look at this: NASA <http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm> report Deep Solar Minimum. http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/01apr_deepsolarminimum.htm We are currently at the low point of number of solar cycles that combine to mask the full impact of global warming. The sun hasn't been more quiet in terms of sunspots since 1913; we're now at the low point of a sunspot cycle that returns every 11 year, Additionally, we are at a 50-year low in solar wind pressure and at a low in solar radio emissions; radio telescopes are now recording the dimmest "radio sun" since 1955. Finally, we are also at a 12-year low in solar irradiance or brightness. This PARTLY explains why temperatures haven't risen as much as projected. The conclusion is that the full impact of global warming is going to be a lot worse from now on. Cheers! Sam Carana On Sat, Jul 4, 2009 at 3:20 AM, John Nissen <[email protected]> wrote: Hi Gene, Sunspot activity is pretty predictable, as you can see from the picture. The 11 year cycle is apparent in tree rings. However the El Niño is totally unpredictable. We have just had a strong La Niña: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7329799.stm The combination of low sunspot activity and La Niña has led to cooler global temperatures since 1998. However, despite this, the Arctic sea ice has been retreating and breaking records (see Albert's email yesterday on the "Geoengineering seminar" topic). Thus there is now a significant possibility* of a seasonally ice-free Arctic ocean within two or three years. Suppose SRM with stratospheric aerosol proves problematic. If we are to get the Salter/Latham cloud brightening technique working and scaled up, sufficient to cool the water entering the Arctic, we need to press ahead. It is a matter of will. This is not like putting a man on the moon! Cheers, John *P.S. Any probability over 1% would be extremely significant, given the risks from methane out-gassing, etc., if the ice disappears. Eugene I. Gordon wrote: It is news that someone can actually predict sunsot activity . Assuming that is the case we can expect increased warming and more urgent need for geoengineering. We cannot predict reliably tomorrows' weather but we can predict next years climate??? -----Original Message----- From: John Nissen [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Friday, July 03, 2009 4:41 AM To: [email protected] Cc: [email protected]; 'Peter Read'; 'Ken Caldeira'; 'Margaret Leinen'; 'Mike MacCracken'; 'Ken Caldeira'; 'Dan Whaley'; 'Geoengineering' Subject: Re: [geo] Re: WSJ - Op-Ed on Global Warming Skepticism Concerning sunspots, we can expect much increased activity over next few years: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/e/e1/Sunspot-bfly.gif And here is some news about El Niño: http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1908533,00.html?xid=rss-topst ories So we can expect global temperatures to rise, and possibly the Arctic sea ice to retreat even faster! Are we prepared? Cheers, John Tom Wigley wrote: Gene, You never responded to Margaret's question (or perhaps I missed it). Tom. +++++++++++++++++++ --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "geoengineering" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/geoengineering?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
